Sitemap - 2024 - Silver Bulletin
Our best and worst takes of 2024
SBSQ #16: Nate’s Incomplete Guide to Vegas
Nobody goes to New York City anymore. It’s too crowded.
How the Indigo Blob runs a bluff
Is it crazy to pay Juan Soto $765 million?
Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy
Part II: The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris
Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump
The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency
SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem
Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate
The model exactly predicted the most likely election map
The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City
Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage
SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
The polls are close, but that doesn’t mean the results will be
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
The early vote doesn't reliably predict results
Trump's dominating the news again. Maybe that's good news for Harris.
The state of play in the 7 states that will decide the election
The border may tip the election to Trump
A mystery in likely voter polls
Why Harris could beat her polls
Yep, the media should cover Trump's age more — and Biden's too
Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”
Kamala Harris needs weird voters
New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment
Why you should mostly ignore "internal polls"
When you should panic about the polls
What’s behind Trump’s surge in prediction markets?
Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?
Is Tim Walz bringing vibes to a knife fight?
SBSQ #13: October Surprise edition
The 128 paths to the White House
Which polls are biased toward Harris or Trump?
Pigs fly. Hell freezes over. The Electoral College favors ... Democrats?
Trust a pollster more when it publishes “outliers”
A tour of the 7½ key swing states
Don't let randomness make a fool of you
Mad about the Electoral College? Blame California.
Harris is gaining in post-debate polls
This was Trump's election to lose. And he just might.
A guide to post-debate poll-watching
Kamala Harris got the debate she wanted
The mistakes of 2019 could cost Harris the election
Oops! I made the convention bounce adjustment disappear.
The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance
There’s no “normal” in this election
SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again?
Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris
Could Kamala Harris really win North Carolina — and lose Georgia?
We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.
Kamala Harris is not going back to the failed politics of 2016
RFK Jr. just dropped out. Is that bearish for Harris?
Against revisionist history on Biden 2024
SBSQ #11b: On the future of the newsletter — and the sports models
Can Kamala Harris win in Incumbent Mode?
Election Model comments overflow room
Where Harris has improved the most on Biden
Kamala Harris can't meme her way to victory. Or can she?
Welcome to the bizarre world of conditional probability
Tim Walz is a Minnesota Nice choice
Kamalamentum vs. economic headwinds
SBSQ #11a: Why she should pick Shapiro
The presidential election is a toss-up
How the election model handles a candidate swap
Harris is in much better shape than Biden. But she has one big problem.
kamala_mode will be activated tomorrow
Silver Bulletin 2024 Biden-Trump forecast archive
Could Josh Shapiro win Kamala Harris the Electoral College?
Did Biden's decline in the polls hurt Democratic Senate candidates?
7 quick thoughts on the latest Harris-Trump polling
Harris is the clear choice of Democratic voters
Biden and Democrats make the rational choice
Betting markets think Biden should quit
Why I don't buy 538's new election model
J.D. Vance offers Democrats an opening
The low road, the high road, and the way the wind blows
The case for, and against, Kamala Harris
Biden needs to do more than make up his deficit in national polls
Blaming the media is what got Democrats into this mess
SBSQ #10: Everything you always wanted to know about the election model but were afraid to ask
Emergency podcast on the state of the presidential race
Are these guys trying to muddle through? Or playing to win?
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
2024 presidential election model methodology update
The Celtics are the prototype of a modern NBA champion
Why 270 is the most dangerous number
SBSQ #9: ⚡ Lightning Round edition ⚡
How much will Trump's conviction harm him? Watch low-information voters.
Comments will now mostly be for paying subscribers
21 tips for acing the World Series of Poker
First episode of Risky Business podcast
What Biden's debate gambit reveals
Your friends are not a representative sample of public opinion
The long, strange political shadow of 2020
Announcing Risky Business, a new podcast with Maria Konnikova
For most people, politics is about fitting in
SBSQ #8: Trump might be a felon before the election. Does that mean the polls are worthless?
Don't confuse attention-seeking activists for "the youth vote"
Job listing: Assistant Elections Analyst
NBA playoffs preview with Neil Paine 🎧
Biden's position in the polls is* improving against Trump — here's my theory for why
Announcing 2024 election model plans
I still have 2 big questions about the Shohei Ohtani case
Sonia Sotomayor's retirement is a political IQ test
Nebraska probably won't cost Biden the Electoral College
Americans love Florida, even if you don't
SBSQ #7: The perfect MLB realignment plan doesn't exist—
How culture trumps economic class as the new political fault line
NCAA Women's Sweet Sixteen projections
NCAA Sweet Sixteen projections
March Madness: Saturday night live update
NCAA tournament projections Round of 32 update
Why did Shohei Ohtani allegedly wire $4.5m to a bookmaker?
2024 March Madness predictions
2024 Women's March Madness predictions
Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color
Biden needs to win over public opinion, not pundit opinion
Why the political clock is ticking for TikTok
Nikki Haley's problem is America's problem
The White House is betting the election on a theory of skewed polls 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
Biden’s problem is with swing voters, not with his base
SBSQ #6: People are fleeing California and New York. Will that make other states bluer?
Google abandoned "don't be evil" — and Gemini is the result
It's time for the White House to put up or shut up
Biden isn't losing because of bad economic vibes
Officially announcing On The Edge, my new book
Not everything is #ButHerEmails
SBSQ #5: The 5 types of people who argue on the Internet
If you think resistance is futile, you're always going to lose