NCAA tournament projections Round of 32 update

Fresh projections for every remaining game as we enter the Round of 32; UConn remains the favorite.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Saturday, 3:30am — the projections have been refreshed since first publication to correct an incorrect result in the TCU-Utah State game, plus updated injury information for Marquette, which affects their projection favorably. At the risk of being annoying, I’ve sent a second email update to paid subscribers to reflect the fixes and make sure they have the correct version at the top of their inboxes.

All right folks, it’s nearing 3 in the morning and your resident college basketball enthusiast is facing a decision about whether to post a quick-and-dirty update to the Silver Bulletin March Madness projections now, or wait until the morning. And since I’ve run the numbers … I’m opting for speed over depth. These projections reflect the results so far as well as fresh injury information.

First, here are updated odds for the East region. The Connecticut Huskies remain the overall favorite to win the tournament, with their chances up to 27 percent after they easily beat the wonderfully-nicknamed Stetson Hatters:

The other three regions, plus the spreadsheet version of these projections, are for paying subscribers. For free subscribers, I love you too and please check out my (free) article on the Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal from this afternoon.

Here is the West, where the model remains skeptical of #1 seed North Carolina.