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Can Talarico win in November?
Plus, were prediction markets right or wrong about Texas? And did Talarico beat Crockett because he was more moderate?
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
188
43
10
War isn't what it once was
Past precedents are less useful than you'd think when predicting a war's political impact. But Iran still poses downside risks for Trump.
Mar 2
•
Nate Silver
252
105
17
13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War
The future is here, whether you're ready or not.
Feb 28
•
Nate Silver
415
84
33
NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III
Our 3 experts look 10 years ahead to rank all 30 NBA teams in future title odds.
Feb 19
•
Nate Silver
,
Joseph George
, and
Jeremias Engelmann
62
7
6
Which 2028 Democrats have the best electoral track record?
Hint: Not Gavin Newsom.
Feb 20
•
Nate Silver
216
81
18
Models & Forecasts
View all
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
135
12
6
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,155
247
256
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
331
70
53
QBERT NFL quarterback ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
Feb 10
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
168
22
19
ELWAY NFL projections: Super Bowl
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
Feb 2
•
Nate Silver
,
Joseph George
, and
Eli McKown-Dawson
179
73
31
Thank you for reading Silver Bulletin! If you enjoy our content, we'd encourage you to become a free or paid subscriber.
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Politics
View all
Can Talarico win in November?
Plus, were prediction markets right or wrong about Texas? And did Talarico beat Crockett because he was more moderate?
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
188
43
10
War isn't what it once was
Past precedents are less useful than you'd think when predicting a war's political impact. But Iran still poses downside risks for Trump.
Mar 2
•
Nate Silver
252
105
17
Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?
Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?
Feb 26
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
and
Nate Silver
184
27
9
Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?
The Democratic primary is contentious, but the winner might get a shot at the sort of candidate who cost the GOP the Senate in 2022.
Feb 24
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
216
27
17
Which 2028 Democrats have the best electoral track record?
Hint: Not Gavin Newsom.
Feb 20
•
Nate Silver
216
81
18
Sports
View all
NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III
Our 3 experts look 10 years ahead to rank all 30 NBA teams in future title odds.
Feb 19
•
Nate Silver
,
Joseph George
, and
Jeremias Engelmann
62
7
6
The Silver Bulletin Super Bowl LX preview
Are the Seahawks and Patriots overachievers, or actually good? Our XL-sized take on LX.
Feb 4
•
Nate Silver
153
13
5
So, who’s going to win the Super Bowl?
Our official Silver Bulletin/ELWAY NFL playoff preview.
Jan 7
•
Nate Silver
129
16
7
Keep Houston weird
The Houston Rockets are playing unconventional basketball, but their young core is blasting off.
Nov 21, 2025
•
Joseph George
114
11
6
The NFL has entered the Scorigami Era
Superkickers, rule changes, dual-threat QBs and analytics are changing the sport — and producing weirder scores.
Nov 14, 2025
•
Nate Silver
159
22
16
SBSQ
View all
SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
Feb 16
•
Nate Silver
120
49
8
SBSQ #28b: Maye vs. Stafford and Yelp vs. Google
Plus, why the College Football Playoff selection process is intrinsically broken.
Jan 19
•
Nate Silver
100
51
5
SBSQ #28: Was Tim Walz gonna lose?
Plus, is Venezuela a political liability for Trump?
Jan 5
•
Nate Silver
133
116
8
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
4,329
5,431
824
How popular is Donald Trump?
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,155
247
256
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
Nov 3, 2024
•
Nate Silver
745
1,028
83
24 reasons that Trump won
Oct 20, 2024
•
Nate Silver
1,034
959
124
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
417
312
46
Recent posts
View all
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
135
12
6
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,155
247
256
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
4 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
331
70
53
Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?
Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?
Feb 26
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
and
Nate Silver
184
27
9
Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?
The Democratic primary is contentious, but the winner might get a shot at the sort of candidate who cost the GOP the Senate in 2022.
Feb 24
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
216
27
17
See all
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