Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Casey Delehanty's avatar

“If polling firms were still applying the same techniques they did in 2016 and 2020, we’d probably be seeing a Harris lead in the Electoral College right now. Instead we have a toss-up, more or less”

Why haven’t any outfits released a “here’s what our data would look like given our 2020/2016” approach? Would be very informative to this discussion, but maybe it would highlight the large amount of subjective modeling work at play in a way that pollsters would prefer not to talk about.

Expand full comment
Matt Shore's avatar

Title of essay: Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, even mine.

How it is being reported in other headlines: Nate Silver says his instinct is that Trump will win.

That was written as a joke but after looking it up it doesnt go far enough

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=nate+silver&iar=news&ia=news

"Trump is going to win election, says America's top pollster" is a real headline.

Expand full comment
496 more comments...

No posts