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FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
21 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
199
99
24
58:57
Prediction markets aren't magic
My chat with Galen Druke on Wisconsin, models, polls and prediction markets.
Aug 13
•
Nate Silver
91
18
4
Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?
Our midterms model finds that polls, fundamentals and history all point toward a strong Democratic year. The House is theirs to lose, but winning four…
Aug 11
•
Nate Silver
292
156
19
What to make of Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.
Aug 5
•
Nate Silver
394
93
23
What is agency — and how can you get more of it?
My interview with Cate Hall about her new book, "You Can Just Do Things."
Jul 25
•
Nate Silver
252
11
21
Silver Bulletin Models & Forecasts
View all
FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
21 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
199
99
24
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
2,214
327
593
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
465
45
93
How popular is the Iran War?
We're tracking how the American public feels about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
726
45
161
PELE International Football Rankings ⚽
What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history and player market values into a brand-new model? You get PELE, our insanely detailed…
Jul 19
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
231
53
17
Politics
View all
58:57
Prediction markets aren't magic
My chat with Galen Druke on Wisconsin, models, polls and prediction markets.
Aug 13
•
Nate Silver
91
18
4
Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?
Our midterms model finds that polls, fundamentals and history all point toward a strong Democratic year. The House is theirs to lose, but winning four…
Aug 11
•
Nate Silver
292
156
19
How FLIPR forecasts the midterm elections
And what changes we've made to the model for 2026.
Aug 11
•
Nate Silver
39
2
1
What to make of Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.
Aug 5
•
Nate Silver
394
93
23
What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms
Could anything save Republicans in the House? Plus, previewing tomorrow’s Michigan primary. And our midterms model is coming soon!
Aug 3
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
154
58
8
Sports
View all
The World Cup champion will be one of the greatest teams ever
Spain is chasing a historic streak. Argentina is chasing back-to-back titles. Whoever wins Sunday will join the highest tier in international soccer…
Jul 18
•
Joseph George
and
Nate Silver
79
11
6
The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview
PELE’s forecast for the final eight: France leads a tight field, Argentina has the easiest path, and Norway has a real chance to crash the party.
Jul 9
•
Joseph George
and
Nate Silver
63
7
6
The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.
Jun 28
•
Nate Silver
124
15
7
Are England the New York Knicks?
Another team just ended a half-century curse by becoming more than the sum of its parts. England's always had the talent — can it finally do the same?
Jun 27
•
Joseph George
136
7
13
The Bucks traded Giannis too late
The deal is "ehh, fine" for both Miami and Milwaukee. But Giannis to Boston would have had a seismic effect on the league.
Jun 25
•
Joseph George
142
11
6
AI+
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What is agency — and how can you get more of it?
My interview with Cate Hall about her new book, "You Can Just Do Things."
Jul 25
•
Nate Silver
252
11
21
"Engagement" is a dumb metric
An algorithm doesn’t always tell you what content people truly find valuable. Plus more from my chat with Mike Solana.
Apr 14
•
Nate Silver
188
30
13
1:05:08
“AI polls” are fake polls
But they might be useful as something else: models.
Apr 11
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
249
18
14
13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War
The future is here, whether you're ready or not.
Feb 28
•
Nate Silver
433
86
35
SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
Feb 16
•
Nate Silver
122
59
8
SBSQ
View all
SBSQ #31: Trump is super unpopular. So why don’t Democrats have a bigger lead?
A deeper look at the generic ballot. Plus, the game theory of the automated strike zone. And more models coming soon!
Apr 21
•
Nate Silver
167
111
8
SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?
So far, the sports betting backlash has a bipartisan flavor. Plus, why I don’t use prediction markets in my models. And are Democrats going to blow the…
Mar 23
•
Nate Silver
152
53
4
SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
Feb 16
•
Nate Silver
122
59
8
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
4,333
5,426
825
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
465
45
93
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
Nov 3, 2024
•
Nate Silver
747
1,027
83
2026 World Cup: Spain vs. Argentina prediction
Jul 18
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
494
104
61
24 reasons that Trump won
Oct 20, 2024
•
Nate Silver
1,036
959
124
Recent posts
View all
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
2,214
327
593
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
465
45
93
How popular is the Iran War?
We're tracking how the American public feels about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
23 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
726
45
161
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
Aug 12
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
376
70
81
How FLIPR forecasts the midterm elections
And what changes we've made to the model for 2026.
Aug 11
•
Nate Silver
39
2
1
See all
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