2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.
⚽ The latest World Cup predictions: Updated July 12, 2026
Argentina keeps winning the hard way. Jude Bellingham rescues England. Spain breaks Belgium in the 88th minute. Morocco can’t get revenge against France.
I was mildly stressed about having to stay up for a full penalty shootout once Argentina and Switzerland hit extra time, but a Julián Álvarez screamer in the 112th minute bailed out the defending champs for the third straight game. Once again, Argentina looked uninspiring against an opponent that had no business keeping things this close. Switzerland were organized and dangerous enough to equalize through Dan Ndoye in the second half, and even after Breel Embolo's controversial second yellow forced them into a defensive shell for the final fifty minutes, Argentina couldn't find a way through until the game was practically at penalties. That's not particularly encouraging for a team that finally has to face a quality opponent in the semifinal.
Erling Haaland and Harry Kane were both quiet today — maybe a bit of a letdown if you'd read our quarterfinal preview — but Jude Bellingham stepped up for England, first to equalize and then to go ahead in extra time. Bellingham continues his rampage in the knockout stage, leading all players in goals scored in the last three rounds. He has a dark horse case for the Golden Ball (now at 14% on Polymarket), bringing both precision and aggression to the midfield. As for Norway, it was a solid but uninspiring effort in the second half. After the referees ruled out a Norway goal, Kristoffer Ajer’s header clanged off the post, and they never really threatened again. England’s defense mostly held up on a number of set pieces, with Haaland’s aerial ability neutralized by a swarm of English defenders. While our model wouldn’t love England’s chances against Argentina, the Three Lions surely believe they have the class to reach the World Cup final, which would be their first since they won it all in 1966.
It was another late goal for Mikel Merino, pouncing after Senne Lammens spilled a thunderous effort from Pau Cubarsí. La Roja controlled the match for long stretches, and Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring on the half-hour mark, reacting quickest to a rebound after Thibaut Courtois denied Dani Olmo. The Belgians equalized shortly after, with Charles De Ketelaere scoring the only goal that Spain has conceded all tournament. It was an overall valiant effort from Belgium given the injuries suffered before and during the game. Their captain, Youri Tielemans, was a late scratch because of a hamstring injury, and with Amadou Onana already lost to a ruptured ACL, the Red Devils were effectively fielding a second-choice midfield against the best possession controlling team in the world. Still, it was the first time the Spanish defense has looked vulnerable, with goalkeeper Unai Simón making a few mistakes late in the game. They’ll have to be better if they want to beat France next Tuesday.
In sweltering heat in Boston, France dispatched Morocco 2-0 in an attacking masterclass to book their place in the semifinals. Michael Olise, Desire Doué, Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele overwhelmed a Moroccan side that had defended so consistently throughout the tournament, with Mbappé and Dembélé each finding the net in a decisive six-minute stretch just past the hour mark. Arguably, Morocco was lucky that the scoreline looks modest: France had 22 (!!) shots, nine of which were on target. As we wrote in our preview, if France keeps their creation diverse, they remain a potent force against any team, even those that boast strong backlines. Les Bleus now advance to Tuesday's semifinal, with a shot at back-to-back-to-back World Cup final appearances.
The model adjusts its odds after each game, playing out the rest of the tournament 100,000 times while giving teams credit (or blame) for their performance so far. We don’t want to overpromise, and we have a small team, so expect one update per day, but you will often see intraday updates after important matches.
For our methodology, see here.
See also: PELE International Football Rankings.
Jump to a section
Part I — Team ratings — PELE ratings, adjusted for the World Cup
Part II — Knockout projections 🔒 — odds at each stage, likely opponents, the bracket
Part III — Match projections 🔒 — win probabilities, scorelines, and the knockout score matrix
Part IV — Track record & history 🔒 — historical performance, upsets, milestones
So, who’s gonna win the World Cup? While our model doesn’t deviate too much from the conventional wisdom, we don’t have teams in quite the same order. Each time we run the model, we play out 100,000 simulated World Cups, accounting for the difficulty of each team’s draw, meticulously calculating tiebreakers, and even the possibility of a dark-horse contender getting hot and unexpectedly being in top form.1 Let’s look at the PELE ratings and some specific adjustments that we’ve made to them for the World Cup.
Part I. Team and group ratings ⚽
Our baseline PELE ratings are adjusted in several ways for the tournament. First, we account for differences between PELE’s algorithmically calculated rosters and the actual, announced World Cup rosters. Thus, we correct for the impact of injuries or otherwise unexpected player absences.2
Second, we update each team’s rating based on the quality of their performance relative to PELE’s expectations for each match. And third, we adjust for home-field advantage on a match-by-match basis.3 The factor is customized for each team: as it happens, the U.S., Canada and especially Mexico4 have above-average home-field advantages.
Ratings and forecasts will be updated at the end of each match day5. Paid subscribers will also get access to our full suite of PELE ratings and our forthcoming midterm election forecasts.
Part II. Knockout stage projections ⚽
Here is each team’s probability of winning the World Cup, and advancing to each stage of the knockout round, using an old-school, FiveThirtyEight heatmap format.