The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.
Hello from Kansas City, where last night I witnessed one of the strangest World Cup games ever. Algeria and Austria — who were both guaranteed to advance with a draw but would have dropped out of the knockout round with a loss — really went for it in the first three-quarters of the game, with the score tied 2-2 after the second-half hydration/advertising break. Algeria seemed content to see out the game from that point forward, passing the ball back and forth at midfield as the pro-Algeria crowd1 booed sarcastically but didn’t seem too upset, given that Algeria would not only move on but also play a relatively forgiving opponent, Switzerland, in the R32.
Then Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez scored in stoppage time in the 93rd minute! Actually, not a smart thing to do because, while they’d still advance, it meant they’d play Spain in the opening round instead. But Austria reciprocated with time running out. So they’ve made it too, completing the knockout stage bracket in a heartbreaking moment for Iran, the last team out. I guess that’s a “W” for incentives, though I’d have thought 0-0 was a more likely score than 3-3.2
Since the tournament resumes at 3 p.m. today — Canada plays South Africa, but in Los Angeles, not the Vancouver slot designated for the Group B winner — let me get you in and out of here fairly quickly. Our World Cup predictions page has been refreshed for the knockout round, removing group-stage content but adding a couple of new, more detailed tables for the elimination bracket. The main thrust of today’s newsletter is to articulate (and quantify) how some teams are in a much more favorable position in the bracket than others, but first, I want to take one last look back at the group stage.
Africa — and France, USA and Mexico — had a very good group stage
Which teams gained or lost the most in the group stage as compared to PELE’s pre-tournament expectations? Here is a modified version of the rankings table that sits atop our forecast page, only I’ve added the confederations3 and sorted the table based on PELE points gained or lost from the three group-stage matches.
Sense a theme here? Five of the six biggest gainers are from Africa, led by underdogs Cape Verde. True, none of the African teams won their groups, and most face relatively difficult knockout-stage assignments, as we’ll get to. (Including Cape Verde, which plays Argentina in the R32.) And let’s not talk about Tunisia, who was so bad that they fired their coach midway through.
Still, this is nice to see for a continent that has some of the best footballing talent in the world but has notoriously underachieved at the World Cup. Morocco, in 2022, is the only African nation ever to reach the semis.
France, however, tied with Cape Verde with a +39 rating gain in the group stage. That’s impressive given that France was already highly rated by the model4 but reflects excellent work in the closest thing this tournament had to a Group of Death, also featuring Senegal and Norway.5
And it’s been a good tournament for the United States and Mexico — the model isn’t too punitive toward Team USA’s loss to Turkey given that we rotated out many of our best players. Canada ended with a -5 rating adjustment, meanwhile. I’d argue they were a little better than that, but now they’ve lost the benefit of playing their R32 match at home.
Which teams have the easiest knockout-round paths?
Canada can’t complain too much, though, because South Africa, even after a favorable adjustment for their group-stage performance, ranks 38th of the 48 entrants this year in PELE. There is, however, a different team that has by far the easiest knockout-round pathway — and since they were one of our pre-tournament favorites, that significantly affects the odds for the title.
Any guesses? First, let me show you the bracket.