Archive - Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

20 hrs ago •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

24 reasons that Trump could win

If there's a second Trump term, we won't lack for explanations.

Oct 20 •

Yep, the media should cover Trump's age more — and Biden's too

Plus, my chat with Matt Yglesias!

Oct 18 •

1:15:17

Does Trump have momentum?

And what does “momentum” mean in the context of an election forecast?

Oct 17 •

Are Republican pollsters “flooding the zone?”

And what would our forecast look like with only high-quality surveys?

Oct 16 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

Kamala Harris needs weird voters

Why she wants to go on Rogan

Oct 15 •

New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment

Should you buy it?

Oct 12 •

Why you should mostly ignore "internal polls"

Unless you’re very careful, they add more noise than signal.

Oct 10 •

When you should panic about the polls

Most of the time, you shouldn't — but here are the exceptions.

Oct 9 •

55/45 is a really close race

Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.

Oct 8 •

What’s behind Trump’s surge in prediction markets?

Strange things can happen when you're in the doldrums.

Oct 7 •

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?

Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.

Oct 3 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

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