Archive - Silver Bulletin

Don't mistake Democratic partisan orthodoxy for a "coherent" philosophy

In a two-party system, the party coalitions are full of contradictions — and the Democrats' are becoming more obvious.

20 hrs ago •

Part II: The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris

From Diet Woke to Brat Summer to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Dec 6 •

Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump

Part 1 of a 3-part autopsy on the Harris campaign. Plus, a GiveDirectly fundraiser!

Dec 3 •

The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency

Hunter Biden's pardon is another log on the fire.

Dec 2 •

November 2024

SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem

Plus, what might change in the model for 2028. And prediction markets: lucky or good?

Nov 26 •

Always. Be. Blogging.

My 7 tips for a successful Substack.

Nov 22 •

Hopium comes at a high price

Democrats ignored the polls at their peril.

Nov 19 •

Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate

Trump's win is mostly Biden's fault, not hers. Still, she was a mediocre candidate in a year when Democrats needed a strong one.

Nov 15 •

It's 2004 all over again

And that might not be such a bad thing for Democrats, especially with their Electoral College disadvantage erased.

Nov 12 •

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

The actual map was the most common one in our 80,000 simulations! Even so, it contained some revealing surprises.

Nov 7 •

The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City

The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.

Nov 6 •

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

All the (election night) numbers for Trump and Harris.

Nov 5 •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

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