Archive - Silver Bulletin

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Aug 7 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

Aug 7 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

Aug 7 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

What to make of Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.

Aug 5 • Nate Silver

What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms

Could anything save Republicans in the House? Plus, previewing tomorrow’s Michigan primary. And our midterms model is coming soon!

Aug 3 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

July 2026

Goodbye, Iowa. Hello, Michigan. Which Democratic primaries will matter most in 2028?

South Carolina will vote first, which could help moderates. But Michigan and Virginia may hold the real power.

Jul 29 • Nate Silver

What is agency — and how can you get more of it?

My interview with Cate Hall about her new book, "You Can Just Do Things."

Jul 25 • Nate Silver

The DSA sweet spot: highly educated, downwardly mobile

Education and economic security are usually correlated. But where the relationship breaks down is fertile territory for the new left.

Jul 21 • Nate Silver

PELE International Football Rankings ⚽

What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history with player market values into a brand-new model? Rankings, ratings and match projections for…

Jul 19 • Nate Silver and Joseph George

2026 World Cup: Spain vs. Argentina prediction

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.

Jul 18 • Nate Silver and Joseph George

The World Cup champion will be one of the greatest teams ever

Spain is chasing a historic streak. Argentina is chasing back-to-back titles. Whoever wins Sunday will join the highest tier in international soccer…

Jul 18 • Joseph George and Nate Silver

Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?

Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent…

Jul 16 • Eli McKown-Dawson

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts