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FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
How popular is the Iran War?
We're tracking how the American public feels about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Prediction markets aren't magic
My chat with Galen Druke on Wisconsin, models, polls and prediction markets.
 • Nate Silver
58:57
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?
Our midterms model finds that polls, fundamentals and history all point toward a strong Democratic year. The House is theirs to lose, but winning four…
 • Nate Silver
How FLIPR forecasts the midterm elections
And what changes we've made to the model for 2026.
 • Nate Silver
What to make of Michigan
Abdul El-Sayed’s apparent victory is a big win for the left — but a disaster for polling and a case study in poor expectations management.
 • Nate Silver
What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms
Could anything save Republicans in the House? Plus, previewing tomorrow’s Michigan primary. And our midterms model is coming soon!
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

July 2026

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