Archive - Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

12 hrs ago •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

Why you should mostly ignore "internal polls"

Unless you’re very careful, they add more noise than signal.

Oct 10 •

When you should panic about the polls

Most of the time, you shouldn't — but here are the exceptions.

Oct 9 •

55/45 is a really close race

Life lessons from gambling about understanding election probabilities.

Oct 8 •

What’s behind Trump’s surge in prediction markets?

Strange things can happen when you're in the doldrums.

Oct 7 •

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida?

Success is unlikely, but the payoff is high.

Oct 3 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

Is Tim Walz bringing vibes to a knife fight?

JD Vance revealed Democratic weaknesses — but they may not matter.

Oct 2 •

SBSQ #13: October Surprise edition

Is Shohei Ohtani the GOAT? What effect could a hurricane have on the election? And what do I think of the new 538 model?

Oct 1 •

September 2024

The 128 paths to the White House

From the Sun Belt to the Rust Belt, which maps are most likely?

Sep 29 •

Which polls are biased toward Harris or Trump?

*Statistically* biased, we mean. A guide to house effects in the Silver Bulletin model.

Sep 27 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

and

Pigs fly. Hell freezes over. The Electoral College favors ... Democrats?

This scenario is not very likely — but probably worth a bet at 300:1

Sep 26 •

Trust a pollster more when it publishes “outliers”

Just toss it in the average — because sometimes those outliers turn out to be right.

Sep 23 •

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