QBERT NFL quarterback ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
🕒 The latest NFL quarterback ratings
Updated September 11, 2025
This is the landing page for QBERT1, our NFL quarterback rating system. As with our other landing pages, such as our polling averages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. You can bookmark the web link here. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change too.
The first thing you’ll always find on the page is our leaderboard of the top five quarterbacks as measured three ways: by their adjusted QBERT rating so far in 2025, by their WAR (wins above replacement), and then by their projected rating for the next week of the NFL season. The projected rating also incorporates data from previous years, and factors related to a QB’s age and experience.
We’ll usually have a little commentary up top here for you too. Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, and we found it validating for QBERT’s approach after we debuted the system last week. The best game of the week, and one of the few high-scoring affairs, was the Buffalo Bills’ 41–40 comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens. That game featured what QBERT thought are pretty clearly the two best QBs in the league: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. And they were our top QBs of the week too: Jackson as measured by efficiency per play, with a spectacular 140.9 adjusted QBERT, and Allen (who had 60 passes plus rushing attempts2) by WAR.
Meanwhile, it was a rough week for young quarterbacks, although QBERT expects that. Rookie QBs are typically bad in their first few starts, and the Titans’ Cam Ward was no exception with a 23.3 rating, the lowest of any starter last week. More worrying in some ways was the performance of Ward’s opponent, the Broncos’ Bo Nix, who had a poor week by both QBERT and traditional statistics even in a home game against a poor defense. QBERT had boldly rated Nix as the 8th best QB in the league on a forward-looking basis, but he’s dropped to 12th. A more positive performance came from the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy, making his first NFL start after sitting out last season with injury. You could almost see the improvement from snap to snap in his comeback win over the Bears.
In the near term, our plan is to update QBERT ratings once a week, typically on Tuesday or Wednesday. We should eventually be able to streamline our process such that they’re also updated after e.g. Thursday night games. But for the time being we’re working on finalizing QBERT’s companion team rating system, ELWAY, which has an ETA of 2-3 weeks.
We’re very excited about QBERT and ELWAY, which are part of our effort to provide Silver Bulletin readers with the best models in the business. Don’t hesitate to drop us a line if you see something that looks wrong in our charts and graphics — there are always kinks to work out after launch — or you have suggestions for additional data we could display. -NS, 9/11/25
QBERT in a nutshell
QBERT3 is both a rating system and a projection system. It evaluates virtually everything that a quarterback does on the field:
Along with more traditional statistics, it incorporates components like rushing, generating first downs and even comeback wins that other systems may ignore.
By accounting for pass pressure, yards after catch, and the performance of a team’s running backs, QBERT also attempts to allocate credit between the QB and other offensive players.
QBERT ratings place past and present quarterbacks on a level playing field by adjusting for overall leaguewide trends, as well as the strength of the opposing defense, home-field advantage and even the weather.
But QBERT also projects every quarterback on a forward-looking basis, based on a rolling rating of his performance in recent games and recent seasons, with some assumptions4 baked in based on his experience, the aging curve, injuries and — for young quarterbacks — college performance. Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes can survive a rough week and still rank in our top 5 in projected QBERT, but the rating system is more sensitive for less experienced quarterbacks.
For a thorough description of QBERT as well as our historical ratings, see our feature on the best quarterbacks of all time. The scale is designed to be similar to traditional NFL passer rating: 80 is average, 68 is replacement level, and anything 100 or above is great.
In addition to the leaderboard you saw at the top of this page, we have a lot of numbers to show you:
QBERT ratings for each QB so far in 2025
Projected QBERT ratings for each QB’s next start
A breakdown of each QB’s weekly ratings for 2025, allocating credit between his passing performance, his rushing and other factors
A series of charts with historical career tracking for each current QB15
An updated lifetime leaderboard of the top QBs of all time
Lifetime QBERT playoff leaders
A spreadsheet of week-by-week ratings for all QBs since 1950
Other than the first table, the rest of this data is an exclusive for paying subscribers.
Who are the best QBs in the NFL?
Let’s see how that distinction between empirical QBERT and projected QBERT plays out in practice. Here’s our 2025 leaderboard based on performance for the season to date. It’s sorted by WAR, which accounts for adjusted QBERT ratings relative to the replacement-level line of 68 as well as the number of plays6 each QB makes. You can also see each QB’s unadjusted QBERT, which is nearly always higher than his adjusted QBERT because we’re living in a QB-friendly era. Except where otherwise specified, we’re almost always referring to adjusted QBERT when we describe a player’s rating.
In comparison, here are our projected QBERT ratings for the upcoming week. They incorporate performance prior to this season, as well as long-term factors like aging, experience, injuries, and college stats. Although we’ve listed projected QBs for every quarterback currently on an NFL roster, it’s important to note that the projections assume the QB starts the next game; projected QBERTs gradually deteriorate if a guy is sitting on the bench or the IR.