QBERT NFL quarterback ratings
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
🕒 The latest NFL QB ratings
Updated December 9, 2025
Data is fully updated for Week 14 games.
This is the landing page for QBERT1, our NFL quarterback rating system. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change too.
Here’s our leaderboard of the top five quarterbacks as measured three ways: by their adjusted QBERT rating so far in 2025, by their WAR (wins above replacement), and then by their projected rating for the next week of the NFL season. The projected rating also incorporates data from previous years and factors related to a QB’s age and experience.
It was a rough week for some longstanding QBERT favorites. Patrick Mahomes was just 14-for-33 with three picks in a Sunday night loss against the Texans that puts the Chiefs’ playoff hopes in extreme jeopardy. Not all of that was his fault, particularly the last INT that deflected off Travis Kelce’s hands. But it’s part of a broader pattern where Mahomes just doesn’t look like the same guy he was a few years ago: both the floor and the ceiling are lower. He’s now even dropped out of the top 5 in our forward-looking rankings.
So has Jalen Hurts, who was in the midst of a highly efficient if not necessarily overly prolific season. But on Monday night, he threw for four interceptions— double the number he’d had so far on the season — along with one fumble. He’s also had a mediocre season on the ground, with 3.8 yards per carry — admittedly, all those tush pushes bring his YPC down.
Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who was outdueled by 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers in a pivotal divisional loss for the Ravens. In six starts since returning from injury, Jackson has averaged just a 71.6 QBERT rating, which is barely better than replacement level.
Finally, Daniel Jones’s season is done with an Achilles tear. Jones started out the season on a heater, ranking at the top of QBERT leaderboards for the first few weeks, before some mean reversion. Still, he’ll finish with a very solid 90.4 QBERT for the season. Here’s hoping for a full recovery. In the meantime, the Colts’ QB situation is in dire straits, with Anthony Richardson also on the shelf with an eye injury. We actually ran the numbers for Philip Rivers, the 44-year-old, future Hall of Famer whom the Colts are considering signing (!). But with a 61.5 projected QBERT rating (yes, there’s a lot of extrapolation here for a guy who hasn’t played in five years) it doesn’t look like a great idea. -NS, 12/9/25
See also: ELWAY NFL team projections.
QBERT in a nutshell
QBERT2 is both a rating system and a projection system. It evaluates virtually everything that a quarterback does on the field:
Along with more traditional statistics, it incorporates components like rushing, generating first downs and even comeback wins that other systems may ignore.
By accounting for pass pressure, yards after catch, and the performance of a team’s running backs, QBERT also attempts to allocate credit between the QB and other offensive players.
QBERT ratings place past and present quarterbacks on a level playing field by adjusting for overall leaguewide trends, as well as the strength of the opposing defense, home-field advantage and even the weather.
But QBERT also projects every quarterback on a forward-looking basis, based on a rolling rating of his performance in recent games and recent seasons, with some assumptions3 baked in based on his experience, the aging curve, injuries and — for young quarterbacks — college performance. Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes can survive a rough week and still rank in our top 5 in projected QBERT, but the rating system is more sensitive for less experienced quarterbacks.
For a thorough description of QBERT as well as our historical ratings, see our feature on the best quarterbacks of all time. The scale is designed to be similar to traditional NFL passer rating: 80 is average, 68 is replacement level, and anything 100 or above is great.
In addition to the leaderboard you saw at the top of this page, we have a lot of numbers to show you:
QBERT ratings for each QB so far in 2025
Projected QBERT ratings for each QB’s next start
A breakdown of each QB’s weekly ratings for 2025, allocating credit between his passing performance, his rushing and other factors
A series of charts with historical career tracking for each current QB14
An updated lifetime leaderboard of the top QBs of all time
Lifetime QBERT playoff leaders
A spreadsheet of week-by-week ratings for all QBs since 1950
Other than the first table, the rest of this data is an exclusive for paying subscribers.
Who are the best QBs in the NFL?
Let’s see how that distinction between empirical QBERT and projected QBERT plays out in practice. Here’s our 2025 leaderboard based on performance for the season to date. It’s sorted by WAR, which accounts for adjusted QBERT ratings relative to the replacement-level line of 68 as well as the number of plays5 each QB makes. You can also see each QB’s unadjusted QBERT, which is nearly always higher than his adjusted QBERT because we’re living in a QB-friendly era. Except where otherwise specified, we’re almost always referring to adjusted QBERT when we describe a player’s rating.
In comparison, here are our projected QBERT ratings for the upcoming week. They incorporate performance prior to this season, as well as long-term factors like aging, experience, injuries, and college stats. Although we’ve listed projected QBs for every quarterback currently on an NFL roster, it’s important to note that the projections assume the QB starts the next game; projected QBERTs gradually deteriorate if a guy is sitting on the bench or the IR.