ELWAY NFL projections: Divisional playoffs
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
🕒 Our latest NFL team ratings
Tuesday, January 13
Wild Card Weekend began with a bang, with the heavily-favored Rams needing until the final three minutes to prevail over the Panthers. And it ended with a whimper, in a largely unwatchable second half as the Texans beat the Steelers 30-6 on Monday night as Aaron Rodgers threw a pick-six on what might be his last NFL pass.
With the Patriots also comfortably prevailing, and the Seahawks and Broncos advancing on a bye, ELWAY’s four Super Bowl frontrunners all remain intact. Meanwhile, the highest-rated teams to be eliminated were the Eagles and the Jaguars. For what it’s worth, ELWAY actually liked taking the 49ers and the points against a Philly team that hasn’t achieved the same heights it did last season. It also wasn’t surprised by the Bears beating the Packers. As skeptical as it is of the Bears, the Pack have injuries up and down the roster, and home-field advantage is a big deal in the playoffs.
But the bigger tests come this week. ELWAY seems to be considerably higher on both the Broncos and the Patriots than the public consensus. Part of that is home field and, in the case of Denver, an extra week of rest. It also tends to be more aggressive about updating its views of young quarterbacks (although QBERT is relatively skeptical of Bo Nix even as it’s a huge Drake Maye fan). In the NFC, we’re more aligned with the consensus this week.
The rest of this page contains:
Different versions of our ELWAY ratings;
Odds for each remaining stage of the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl
Detailed projections for this week’s games, and conditional projections for next week, including point spreads and totals (yes, there is gambling in this casino);
And a series of 32 mini-graphs that track each team’s ELWAY rating from week to week.
The ratings themselves are free for everyone, while the other features are exclusive to paying subscribers. -NS, 1/13/25
See also: QBERT NFL quarterback ratings.
The best (and worst) teams in the NFL
The default version of ELWAY ratings includes adjustments based on a team’s projected starting QB for the upcoming game and current injuries. You can click the tabs in the table to view the other versions. “Healthy QB1s” backs out injuries completely for both QBs and non-QBs; the Bengals magically get Joe Burrow back. This might be a good indication of a team’s intrinsic strength later in the season. Meanwhile, the “team performance” version is most comparable to traditional NFL power ratings. It accounts for offseason roster movement and carries over a portion of the ratings from one season to the next, but otherwise takes a more “set it and forget it” approach.
ELWAY’s offensive and defensive ratings are essentially projections of how many points a team is expected to score and allow in forthcoming games. (Lower defensive ratings are better since it means a team is projected to allow fewer points.) By design, these ratings tend to be correlated, as you can see from this scatterplot:
Why such a strong relationship? Well, it’s because in a very literal sense, “a good offense is the best defense” in the NFL. Holding onto possession of the ball prevents the other team from scoring — defensive TDs are rare — eats up the clock, and leaves them with worse field position.
ELWAY projected records and playoff odds
We simulate the remainder of the season 10,0001 times based on these ratings, projected injury timelines, and a whole series of other adjustments. A team like the Packers will tend to have a bigger home-field advantage later in the season, for instance, because winter weather tends to help home teams that are accustomed to it. (There’s a reason that luxury housing is relatively affordable in Green Bay.)
Here are our projected playoff odds.