FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.

📈 Our latest midterm forecast

Updated August 11, 2026

This page is mostly devoted to charts, but we’ll use this space for short narrative updates about the midterms as we update the model — you can expect to see updates about six times per week.

For our current big-picture overview of the race, see today’s article: Everything is breaking Democrats’ way. Is it enough to win the Senate?

We’ll also be adding more charts and tables as we go. FLIPR generates lots of data that we aren’t showing anywhere yet. We’re very much open to suggestions about what you’d like to see next. The charts are also a little fancier this year. If you’re encountering persistent problems with them, please don’t hesitate to let us know, including details about your device and browser. -NS, 8/11/26

See also: Generic congressional ballot dashboard and Donald Trump approval rating dashboard.

This is the landing page for FLIPR¹, Silver Bulletin’s 2026 election forecast. We’ll regularly update the charts below as new election polls and other data come in.² This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. If you’re curious about how the model works, and what’s new for 2026 (quite a lot, actually), we also have a very detailed methodology article.

The polls

The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, and they include various adjustments. They account for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, and for house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. They also include a “timeline adjustment”, where outdated polls are revised to reflect trends in the generic ballot. Speaking of the generic ballot, you can find a version of it with our likely-voter adjustment below; this is the version that FLIPR uses.

We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database³, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.

The forecast

Here are today’s topline numbers for Senate and House control. They are typically based on 40,000 simulations and include a small amount of sampling error. FLIPR models House, Senate and gubernatorial elections jointly, meaning that we can calculate the probability of things like Republicans holding the Senate but losing the House.