Silver Bulletin | Substack

Want more Black representatives? Elect more Democrats.

I ran the numbers on redistricting after the Supreme Court's decision on the Voting Rights Act. The Black representation trade-off is mostly a myth.

May 5 • Nate Silver

1:01:55

Can we please stop rationalizing political violence?

I wish I didn't have to state the obvious.

Apr 28 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Democrats are not OK with Boomers

Perhaps having learned their lesson with Joe Biden, the party’s voters are starting to reject older, establishment-bound candidates.

Apr 30 • Nate Silver

How much can Trump screw with the midterms?

Doomsday scenarios are unlikely, but the realistic ones deserve more attention. A Q&A with Votebeat's Nathaniel Rakich.

Apr 29 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Most Popular

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Nov 3, 2024 • Nate Silver

24 reasons that Trump won

Oct 20, 2024 • Nate Silver

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver

Silver Bulletin Models & Forecasts

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

PRISM 2026 NBA draft rankings

Who should be the #1 pick? Our new NBA draft model says teams still overvalue potential and undervalue production.

Mar 28 • Joseph George, Nate Silver, and Eli McKown-Dawson

2026 March Madness Predictions

Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament, powered by our new COOPER ratings.

Apr 5 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

Politics

Want more Black representatives? Elect more Democrats.

I ran the numbers on redistricting after the Supreme Court's decision on the Voting Rights Act. The Black representation trade-off is mostly a myth.

May 5 • Nate Silver

Democrats are not OK with Boomers

Perhaps having learned their lesson with Joe Biden, the party’s voters are starting to reject older, establishment-bound candidates.

Apr 30 • Nate Silver

How much can Trump screw with the midterms?

Doomsday scenarios are unlikely, but the realistic ones deserve more attention. A Q&A with Votebeat's Nathaniel Rakich.

Apr 29 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Can we please stop rationalizing political violence?

I wish I didn't have to state the obvious.

Apr 28 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

1:01:55

Yes, Virginia, redistricting is a two-player game

Democratic voters are pretty rational. For once, their leadership has been, too.

Apr 23 • Nate Silver

Sports

The profoundly weird race for Rookie of the Year

Dramatic late twists, stats versus vibes — and another test of what prediction markets really measure.

Apr 17 • Joseph George

⏜ Our radical plan to replace the NBA draft ⏜

What if you could penalize tanking, decrease randomness, reduce perverse incentives, and give teams more control over their fate? There's one big catch…

Apr 1 • Nate Silver

How our PRISM NBA draft model works

It's a machine learning model ... but with a lot of human curation.

Mar 28 • Joseph George

Introducing COOPER: Silver Bulletin's NCAA basketball rating system

The methods behind the March Madness.

Mar 10 • Nate Silver

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III

Our 3 experts look 10 years ahead to rank all 30 NBA teams in future title odds.

Feb 19 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Jeremias Engelmann

AI+

1:05:08

"Engagement" is a dumb metric

An algorithm doesn’t always tell you what content people truly find valuable. Plus more from my chat with Mike Solana.

Apr 14 • Nate Silver

“AI polls” are fake polls

But they might be useful as something else: models.

Apr 11 • Eli McKown-Dawson

13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War

The future is here, whether you're ready or not.

Feb 28 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?

The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?

Feb 16 • Nate Silver

The singularity won't be gentle

If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again.

Feb 11 • Nate Silver

SBSQ

SBSQ #31: Trump is super unpopular. So why don’t Democrats have a bigger lead?

A deeper look at the generic ballot. Plus, the game theory of the automated strike zone. And more models coming soon!

Apr 21 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?

So far, the sports betting backlash has a bipartisan flavor. Plus, why I don’t use prediction markets in my models. And are Democrats going to blow the…

Mar 23 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?

The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?

Feb 16 • Nate Silver

Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

Top posts

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Nov 3, 2024 • Nate Silver

24 reasons that Trump won

Oct 20, 2024 • Nate Silver

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Nov 1, 2024 • Nate Silver

Recent posts

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is Elon Musk?

Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.

Apr 28 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Yes, Virginia, redistricting is a two-player game

Democratic voters are pretty rational. For once, their leadership has been, too.

Apr 23 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #31: Trump is super unpopular. So why don’t Democrats have a bigger lead?

A deeper look at the generic ballot. Plus, the game theory of the automated strike zone. And more models coming soon!

Apr 21 • Nate Silver

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Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

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