Silver Bulletin | Substack

1:06:53

Iran is Trump's biggest political mistake

Narrow mandates and "transformative" presidencies aren’t a good political match.

Apr 6 • Nate Silver and Galen Druke

⏜ Our radical plan to replace the NBA draft ⏜

What if you could penalize tanking, decrease randomness, reduce perverse incentives, and give teams more control over their fate? There's one big catch…

Apr 1 • Nate Silver

COOPER men's NCAA basketball ratings

Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 365 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.

9 hrs ago • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

Social media has become a freak show

The ecosystem is incredibly unhealthy, especially on Twitter. But if it dies, good riddance.

Apr 5 • Nate Silver

Trump approval just hit the 30s. Can his numbers get any lower?

$4 gas is a big problem for Trump. But broken campaign promises and series of self-inflicted wounds are eroding support even among Trump’s base.

Mar 30 • Nate Silver

Models & Forecasts

COOPER men's NCAA basketball ratings

Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 365 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.

9 hrs ago • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

COOPER women's NCAA basketball ratings

Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 363 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.

8 hrs ago • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

2026 March Madness Predictions

Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament, powered by our new COOPER ratings.

Apr 5 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Thank you for reading Silver Bulletin! If you enjoy our content, we'd encourage you to become a free or paid subscriber.

Politics

1:06:53

Iran is Trump's biggest political mistake

Narrow mandates and "transformative" presidencies aren’t a good political match.

Apr 6 • Nate Silver and Galen Druke

Trump approval just hit the 30s. Can his numbers get any lower?

$4 gas is a big problem for Trump. But broken campaign promises and series of self-inflicted wounds are eroding support even among Trump’s base.

Mar 30 • Nate Silver

The TACO trade meets the fog of war

Counting on Trump to "always chicken out" is a risky strategy. And war in the Middle East is a different game.

Mar 17 • Nate Silver

Will Iran break MAGA?

So far, there’s not much erosion in Trump’s polling among Republicans. But elite opinion can trickle down to the party base.

Mar 11 • Eli McKown-Dawson

Gas prices are set to go vertical

It's not exactly a bold prediction to suggest this will be bad for Trump's political standing.

Mar 8 • Nate Silver

Sports

⏜ Our radical plan to replace the NBA draft ⏜

What if you could penalize tanking, decrease randomness, reduce perverse incentives, and give teams more control over their fate? There's one big catch…

Apr 1 • Nate Silver

How our PRISM NBA draft model works

It's a machine learning model ... but with a lot of human curation.

Mar 28 • Joseph George

Introducing COOPER: Silver Bulletin's NCAA basketball rating system

The methods behind the March Madness.

Mar 10 • Nate Silver

NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III

Our 3 experts look 10 years ahead to rank all 30 NBA teams in future title odds.

Feb 19 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Jeremias Engelmann

The Silver Bulletin Super Bowl LX preview

Are the Seahawks and Patriots overachievers, or actually good? Our XL-sized take on LX.

Feb 4 • Nate Silver

AI+

13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War

The future is here, whether you're ready or not.

Feb 28 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?

The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?

Feb 16 • Nate Silver

The singularity won't be gentle

If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again.

Feb 11 • Nate Silver

ChatGPT is shockingly bad at poker

I’m impressed by large language models. So why can't they get the basics of poker right?

May 21, 2025 • Nate Silver

Silicon Valley's gamble on Trump isn't paying off

Tech stocks have tumbled since Trump took office. More about the mindset that led much of the Valley to support him in the first place.

Apr 8, 2025 • Nate Silver

SBSQ

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?

So far, the sports betting backlash has a bipartisan flavor. Plus, why I don’t use prediction markets in my models. And are Democrats going to blow the…

Mar 23 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?

The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?

Feb 16 • Nate Silver

SBSQ #28b: Maye vs. Stafford and Yelp vs. Google

Plus, why the College Football Playoff selection process is intrinsically broken.

Jan 19 • Nate Silver

Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

Top posts

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Nov 3, 2024 • Nate Silver

24 reasons that Trump won

Oct 20, 2024 • Nate Silver

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Nov 1, 2024 • Nate Silver

Recent posts

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is the Iran War?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?

Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.

3 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

COOPER women's NCAA basketball ratings

Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 363 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.

8 hrs ago • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

2026 March Madness Predictions

Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament, powered by our new COOPER ratings.

Apr 5 • Nate Silver, Joseph George, and Eli McKown-Dawson

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Silver Bulletin

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

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