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Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people
Political parties don’t get to wait for courtroom certainty. Graham Platner has given Democrats far too many reasons to cut their losses.
3 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
186
26
15
2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
429
94
50
Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
Jun 29
•
Joel Wertheimer
248
18
16
What is Gavin Newsom doing?
Losing support in polls, the governor is leaning into his role as the avatar of an unpopular Democratic establishment.
Jun 23
•
Nate Silver
248
88
23
PELE International Football Rankings ⚽
What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history with player market values into a brand-new model? Rankings, ratings and match projections for…
10 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
220
49
16
Silver Bulletin Models & Forecasts
View all
2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
429
94
50
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,989
295
536
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
377
39
70
PRISM 2026 NBA draft rankings
Who should be the #1 pick? Our new NBA draft model says teams still overvalue potential and undervalue production.
May 26
•
Joseph George
,
Nate Silver
, and
Eli McKown-Dawson
84
17
7
PELE International Football Rankings ⚽
What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history with player market values into a brand-new model? Rankings, ratings and match projections for…
10 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
220
49
16
Politics
View all
Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people
Political parties don’t get to wait for courtroom certainty. Graham Platner has given Democrats far too many reasons to cut their losses.
3 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
185
26
15
America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.
Most Americans still love their country, but patriotism is in sharp decline.
Jul 3
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
and
Nate Silver
105
54
13
Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
Jun 29
•
Joel Wertheimer
248
18
16
What is Gavin Newsom doing?
Losing support in polls, the governor is leaning into his role as the avatar of an unpopular Democratic establishment.
Jun 23
•
Nate Silver
248
88
23
How Trump conquered the Republican Party
My interview with Seth Masket on his new book about the GOP
Jun 20
•
Nate Silver
206
52
13
Sports
View all
The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.
Jun 28
•
Nate Silver
123
15
8
Are England the New York Knicks?
Another team just ended a half-century curse by becoming more than the sum of its parts. England's always had the talent — can it finally do the same?
Jun 27
•
Joseph George
135
7
14
The Bucks traded Giannis too late
The deal is "ehh, fine" for both Miami and Milwaukee. But Giannis to Boston would have had a seismic effect on the league.
Jun 25
•
Joseph George
142
11
6
What all 48 World Cup teams have at stake
Only 7 teams have clinched advancement --- and almost everyone has a lot to play for in their final match.
Jun 24
•
Nate Silver
145
8
7
A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup
This tournament has been great so far. But 48 teams create an awkward bracket. A 64-team World Cup is the inevitable outcome — and maybe the better one.
Jun 17
•
Nate Silver
188
22
15
AI+
View all
1:05:08
"Engagement" is a dumb metric
An algorithm doesn’t always tell you what content people truly find valuable. Plus more from my chat with Mike Solana.
Apr 14
•
Nate Silver
184
30
13
“AI polls” are fake polls
But they might be useful as something else: models.
Apr 11
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
247
18
14
13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War
The future is here, whether you're ready or not.
Feb 28
•
Nate Silver
434
86
34
SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
Feb 16
•
Nate Silver
122
59
8
The singularity won't be gentle
If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again.
Feb 11
•
Nate Silver
375
86
40
SBSQ
View all
SBSQ #31: Trump is super unpopular. So why don’t Democrats have a bigger lead?
A deeper look at the generic ballot. Plus, the game theory of the automated strike zone. And more models coming soon!
Apr 21
•
Nate Silver
167
110
8
SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?
So far, the sports betting backlash has a bipartisan flavor. Plus, why I don’t use prediction markets in my models. And are Democrats going to blow the…
Mar 23
•
Nate Silver
152
53
4
SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
Feb 16
•
Nate Silver
122
59
8
Silver Bulletin
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Nov 5, 2024
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
4,336
5,426
824
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
Nov 3, 2024
•
Nate Silver
747
1,027
83
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
377
39
70
24 reasons that Trump won
Oct 20, 2024
•
Nate Silver
1,036
959
124
2026 World Cup: Knockout stage predictions
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Joseph George
429
94
50
Recent posts
View all
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
1,989
295
536
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
377
39
70
How popular is the Iran War?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
5 hrs ago
•
Nate Silver
and
Eli McKown-Dawson
651
38
148
America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.
Most Americans still love their country, but patriotism is in sharp decline.
Jul 3
•
Eli McKown-Dawson
and
Nate Silver
105
54
13
The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.
Jun 28
•
Nate Silver
123
15
8
See all
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