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1:18:41
The metaphor that explains American politics
What is a Shepard tone, and what does it tell us about Trump? Plus, my Substack Live with Galen Druke.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Galen Druke
14
Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?
Zohran Mamdani has made the NYC mayoral primary competitive. But ranked choice voting may shut out the very compromise choices it was supposed to…
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Joel Wertheimer
70
17 thoughts on the Trump-Elon feud
This was nothing if not predictable. But is it the world's funniest social media spat, or a seismic event for American politics?
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Nate Silver
106
When should you fire your coach?
The Knicks just had their best season in 25 years. Then they fired Tom Thibodeau. Does that make any sense?
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Nate Silver
10
SBSQ #21: Why young men don't like Democrats
Plus, the New York City mayor’s race — and whether win probability models are broken.
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Nate Silver
152

Models and Forecasts

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How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
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Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
137
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
54
2025 March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
103
2025 Women's March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
15
Silver Bulletin College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 364 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
36
Silver Bulletin Women's College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 362 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
4
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
32
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
How popular is Donald Trump?
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
137
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
 • Nate Silver
1,031
24 reasons that Trump won
 • Nate Silver
964
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
 • Nate Silver
313

Recent posts

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Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election
In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.
 • 
Nate Silver
83
25 tips for acing the World Series of Poker
Newly updated for 2025. Here’s what I’ve learned after many long hours at the WSOP.
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Nate Silver
18
ChatGPT is shockingly bad at poker
I’m impressed by large language models. So why can't they get the basics of poker right?
 • 
Nate Silver
132
Did the media blow it on Biden?
The fight for the nomination between Biden and Kamala Harris was covered extensively. But the public deserved to know more about Biden's fitness for the…
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Nate Silver
313
How I learned to love the New York Knicks
Everyone loves an underdog story. Even in the city that has everything.
 • 
Nate Silver
15
Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026?
Their math isn’t as bad as you might think — if they find the right candidates.
 • 
Nate Silver
147
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