Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Home
Notes
Trump Approval Dashboard
Elon Popularity Tracker
On the Edge
Risky Business
Archive
About
Canada thinks we're a bunch of hosers, eh?
Dislike of Trump is spilling over into broader public sentiment against the United States. Especially on our northern border.
 • 
Eli McKown-Dawson
 and 
Nate Silver
133
It's good when stocks go up
Actually, the stock market is an increasingly good proxy for the economy.
 • 
Nate Silver
39
Defending democracy is easier when you listen to voters
The worst outcomes are less likely if Trump is less popular. So Democrats need to win the battle of public opinion.
 • 
Nate Silver
283
Have we found the new Michael Jordan?
Nikola Jokic is incomparable. And Anthony Edwards looks like MJ. But another player just had a season eerily similar to His Airness.
 • 
Nate Silver
28
Way-too-early 2028 Democratic primary draft with Galen Druke
This was much harder than we thought.
 • 
Nate Silver
157
1:28:53

Models and Forecasts

View all
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
42
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
118
2025 March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
103
2025 Women's March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
15
Silver Bulletin College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 364 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
36
Silver Bulletin Women's College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 362 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
4
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
32
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
How popular is Donald Trump?
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
118
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
 • Nate Silver
1,031
24 reasons that Trump won
 • Nate Silver
964
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
 • Nate Silver
313

Recent posts

View all
The 4 factions of Trump 2.0
And why they’re producing chaos on tariffs.
 • 
Nate Silver
32
We shouldn't rely on markets to tame Trump
Why it’s premature for the “Trump put” to take a victory lap.
 • 
Nate Silver
47
Silicon Valley's gamble on Trump isn't paying off
Tech stocks have tumbled since Trump took office. More about the mindset that led much of the Valley to support him in the first place.
 • 
Nate Silver
138
Wall Street thinks Trump's tariffs will eat Main Street alive
Sometimes, the stock market is the economy.
 • 
Nate Silver
202
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
42
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
118
Recommendations
View all 56
Very Serious
Very Serious
Josh Barro
Overcoming Bias
Overcoming Bias
Robin Hanson
Cartoons Hate Her
Cartoons Hate Her
Cartoons Hate Her
User's avatar
Singal-Minded
Jesse Singal
Sam Harris
Sam Harris
Sam Harris
Thank you for reading Silver Bulletin! If you enjoy our content, we'd encourage you to become a free or paid subscriber.
© 2025 Nate Silver
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture