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SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless?

Plus the 2026 Senate map, Joe Burrow versus Joe Flacco, and why you should do creative work until you die.

17 hrs ago •

1:14:44

A 10/10 night for Democrats

Plus, my chat with Eli and Ross Barkan about last night's results — and what to expect from Mayor Mamdani.

Nov 5 •

ELWAY NFL team projections: Week 10

Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.

Nov 5 •

,

, and

Eli McKown-Dawson

Andrew Cuomo’s last stand

Zohran won. Here's why Cuomo's campaign failed.

Nov 4 •

Is the NYC mayoral race tightening?

Not unless you’re cherry-picking for Cuomo — although New York City has a history of late polling movement and Election Day surprises.

Oct 30 •

Models & Forecasts

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

12 hrs ago •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is Elon Musk?

Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.

12 hrs ago •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

ELWAY NFL team projections: Week 10

Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.

Nov 5 •

,

, and

Eli McKown-Dawson

QBERT NFL quarterback ratings

Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.

Nov 4 •

and

2025 March Madness Predictions

Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.

Apr 6 •

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Politics

1:14:44

A 10/10 night for Democrats

Plus, my chat with Eli and Ross Barkan about last night's results — and what to expect from Mayor Mamdani.

Nov 5 •

Andrew Cuomo’s last stand

Zohran won. Here's why Cuomo's campaign failed.

Nov 4 •

Is New Jersey the next swing state?

Probably not. But a Republican win on Tuesday would make the state worth watching in 2028.

Nov 1 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

Is the NYC mayoral race tightening?

Not unless you’re cherry-picking for Cuomo — although New York City has a history of late polling movement and Election Day surprises.

Oct 30 •

Do political scandals still matter? Or is ticket-splitting dead?

Jay Jones’s text message scandal will test the limits of both propositions in what should be a good year for Democrats in Virginia.

Oct 28 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

Sports

Bring the big leagues to Mexico City

The rewards outweigh the risks for the NFL, NBA and MLB

Nov 3 •

The NBA gambling scandal, explained by an actual gambler

43 thoughts about the biggest betting scandal in years. Not only is it not surprising, but it looked suspicious in real time.

Oct 25 •

How our ELWAY forecasts work

Way more detail than you probably wanted on Silver Bulletin's new NFL forecasting system.

Oct 16 •

and

Can Wemby make the MVP leap?

The NBA's resident alien just had the coolest summer possible. Can he follow it up with a season for the ages?

Oct 7 •

The best quarterbacks of all time

And our projected best (and worst) QBs of 2025. Introducing QBERT ratings and previewing our ELWAY NFL model.

Sep 2 •

and

SBSQ

SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless?

Plus the 2026 Senate map, Joe Burrow versus Joe Flacco, and why you should do creative work until you die.

17 hrs ago •

1:17:43

SBSQ #25: Why "No Kings" is a W for Democrats when the shutdown isn't

Plus, sports model plans, Obama's legacy, and why Vermont is so blue — in the first-ever live edition of SBSQ.

Oct 22 •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

SBSQ #24: Extra special nerdy edition

Calculus vs. statistics, quarterback clutchness — and my media consumption diet.

Sep 29 •

Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

Top posts

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

How popular is Donald Trump?

12 hrs ago • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Nov 3, 2024 • Nate Silver

24 reasons that Trump won

Oct 20, 2024 • Nate Silver

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

Nov 5, 2024 • Nate Silver

Recent posts

Bring the big leagues to Mexico City

The rewards outweigh the risks for the NFL, NBA and MLB

Nov 3 •

Save Daylight Savings Time

Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s plan would literally make the average American’s life darker.

Dec 17, 2024 •

Is New Jersey the next swing state?

Probably not. But a Republican win on Tuesday would make the state worth watching in 2028.

Nov 1 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

Do political scandals still matter? Or is ticket-splitting dead?

Jay Jones’s text message scandal will test the limits of both propositions in what should be a good year for Democrats in Virginia.

Oct 28 •

Eli McKown-Dawson

The NBA gambling scandal, explained by an actual gambler

43 thoughts about the biggest betting scandal in years. Not only is it not surprising, but it looked suspicious in real time.

Oct 25 •

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