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1:14:30
The two theories of Zohran
A chat with Derek Thompson from A (Abundance) to Z (Zohran). Plus, how Substack is disrupting the media, and some early thoughts on the NYC general…
 • 
Nate Silver
35
Did the Thunder get too good, too fast?
No NBA team has gone from zero to dominant this quickly. So why isn't Oklahoma City getting the love it deserves?
 • 
Nate Silver
9
Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved
It backed another tired, entitled candidate in Andrew Cuomo. Voters finally had enough.
 • 
Nate Silver
141
How Zohran expanded the electorate
A chat with Michael Lange and Galen Druke on a seismic mayoral race.
 • 
Nate Silver
14
1:02:26
What explains the liberal-conservative happiness gap?
A spinoff post from my Substack Live with Mike Pesca.
 • 
Nate Silver
1:00:40

Models and Forecasts

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How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
144
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
54
2025 March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
103
2025 Women's March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
15
Silver Bulletin College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 364 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
36
Silver Bulletin Women's College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 362 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
4
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
32
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
How popular is Donald Trump?
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
144
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
 • Nate Silver
1,031
24 reasons that Trump won
 • Nate Silver
964
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
 • Nate Silver
313

Recent posts

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How the electoral math flipped against Democrats
Demographics aren’t destiny. But Democrats are losing support among the groups that once gave them their biggest advantage.
 • 
Nate Silver
109
The metaphor that explains American politics
What is a Shepard tone, and what does it tell us about Trump? Plus, my Substack Live with Galen Druke.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Galen Druke
16
1:18:41
Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?
Zohran Mamdani has made the NYC mayoral primary competitive. But ranked choice voting may shut out the very compromise choices it was supposed to…
 • 
Joel Wertheimer
75
17 thoughts on the Trump-Elon feud
This was nothing if not predictable. But is it the world's funniest social media spat, or a seismic event for American politics?
 • 
Nate Silver
106
When should you fire your coach?
The Knicks just had their best season in 25 years. Then they fired Tom Thibodeau. Does that make any sense?
 • 
Nate Silver
10
SBSQ #21: Why young men don't like Democrats
Plus, the New York City mayor’s race — and whether win probability models are broken.
 • 
Nate Silver
175
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