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Can Democrats really win the Senate in 2026?
Their math isn’t as bad as you might think — if they find the right candidates.
 • 
Nate Silver
113
Why didn't anyone predict the American pope?
Prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have limitations when they become feedback loops.
 • 
Nate Silver
48
We're tracking more data on Trump's popularity
An old pattern has re-emerged: his haters are increasingly more passionate than his supporters.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
16
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
119
SBSQ #20: The game theory of Trump vs. SCOTUS
Plus: Trump Derangement Syndrome, the value of political protests, and how much should you cater to the party base?
 • 
Nate Silver
107

Models and Forecasts

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How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
119
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
44
2025 March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
103
2025 Women's March Madness Predictions
Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament.
 • 
Nate Silver
15
Silver Bulletin College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 364 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
36
Silver Bulletin Women's College Basketball (SBCB) ratings 🏀
Our Elo-derived ratings for all 362 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
 • 
Nate Silver
4
Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, 2025 update
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
32
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
Top posts
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
5,438
How popular is Donald Trump?
 • Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
119
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
 • Nate Silver
1,031
24 reasons that Trump won
 • Nate Silver
964
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
 • Nate Silver
313

Recent posts

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Canada thinks we're a bunch of hosers, eh?
Dislike of Trump is spilling over into broader public sentiment against the United States. Especially on our northern border.
 • 
Eli McKown-Dawson
 and 
Nate Silver
171
It's good when stocks go up
Actually, the stock market is an increasingly good proxy for the economy.
 • 
Nate Silver
39
Defending democracy is easier when you listen to voters
The worst outcomes are less likely if Trump is less popular. So Democrats need to win the battle of public opinion.
 • 
Nate Silver
287
Have we found the new Michael Jordan?
Nikola Jokic is incomparable. And Anthony Edwards looks like MJ. But another player just had a season eerily similar to His Airness.
 • 
Nate Silver
28
Way-too-early 2028 Democratic primary draft with Galen Druke
This was much harder than we thought.
 • 
Nate Silver
158
1:28:53
The 4 factions of Trump 2.0
And why they’re producing chaos on tariffs.
 • 
Nate Silver
32
Recommendations
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GD POLITICS
GD POLITICS
Galen Druke
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