Silver Bulletin

Silver Bulletin

Models & Forecasts

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Nate Silver's avatar
Eli McKown-Dawson's avatar
Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
Mar 20, 2026
∙ Paid

🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating

Updated March 20, 2026

Donald Trump’s net approval rating has hit a new second term low of -15.3 in the Silver Bulletin average. That’s not a massive departure from Trump’s previous low of -15.0, but still, it’s about 3 points worse than where he was at this point in his first term.

And although the war in Iran hasn’t resulted in a major drop in Trump’s popularity, there are some more bearish signals under the hood. In a recent YouGov/Yahoo News poll, just 27 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of gas prices. AAA has the national average gas price at $3.88, nearly $1 more per gallon than one month ago ($2.93). As we wrote a few weeks ago, that increase could spell real trouble for Trump.

For more thoughts on how the war will progress, check out Nate’s piece from Tuesday on the game theory of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). -EMD, 3/19/26

See also: Generic congressional ballot dashboard and Elon Musk favorability rating dashboard.

This is the landing page for Silver Bulletin presidential approval ratings. We’ll regularly update the charts below as new polls about Donald Trump’s approval rating come in.1 This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.

Click here for more information on how the average works. The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here.

The topline: So, just how popular is Trump?

Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version.2 This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote.

The polls: What do the surveys say?

Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.3 Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people.

Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity. By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how the “house effects” adjustment that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model. You can also click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below.

The issues: What do Americans think of Trump’s policies?

Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living.

The deep dive

We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers:

  • How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman?

  • How many voters strongly approve or disapprove of Trump?

  • What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters?

You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Nate Silver · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture