1. A good point that Tim Miller made on Pod Save America: 2/3 of those supporting Trump are not looking at alternative candidates. So (about) 28% of the electorate is locked into Trump into Iowa.
If none of the other 14% end up supporting Trump, then about 40% of the 72% would have to consolidate around an alternative candidate, which seems doable. If half of the 14% end up supporting Trump, then the majority of the 65% would have to consolidate around an alternative, which seems much less likely.
2. While there have been swings larger than 23 points (Trump's current lead), it hasn't happened in the 21st century. Generally I think the more recent data is more informative than older data, but given all the weirdness of this cycle, perhaps it makes sense to build in more uncertainty.
3. Trump lost Iowa in 2016 but still won the primary rather easily. So I'm not even sure an Iowa loss should even affect how we view the Republican primary overall
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in polls, given Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves). In 2016, and 2020, the polling was way off; especially state polls.
Yesterday, 71% said Trump is more honest than their clergy, who mustered just 41%, believing the clergy over Trump. Does anyone actually believe this is the case? Trumpster’s continually lie to protect Trump and themselves.
Does anyone actually believe that these people are so clueless as to think Trump doesn’t lie, fabricate or at least exaggerate often?
I bet when push comes to shove, and we’re closer to the election with several debates in the bag, at least 40% of these people would vote for someone else if given the chance.
I refuse to believe even Trumpster’s and his low information voters, are this stupid! And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless; just not to this extent.
We have good evidence that Trump's support is less elastic than predecessors though. He's been impeached twice, indicted four times, and is still polling 50% nationally. I think we can say with confidence that the 17-pt variance doesn't apply to him. If Selzer's giving him 42% support in August... safe to say he's gonna get 35% minimum.
1. A good point that Tim Miller made on Pod Save America: 2/3 of those supporting Trump are not looking at alternative candidates. So (about) 28% of the electorate is locked into Trump into Iowa.
If none of the other 14% end up supporting Trump, then about 40% of the 72% would have to consolidate around an alternative candidate, which seems doable. If half of the 14% end up supporting Trump, then the majority of the 65% would have to consolidate around an alternative, which seems much less likely.
2. While there have been swings larger than 23 points (Trump's current lead), it hasn't happened in the 21st century. Generally I think the more recent data is more informative than older data, but given all the weirdness of this cycle, perhaps it makes sense to build in more uncertainty.
3. Trump lost Iowa in 2016 but still won the primary rather easily. So I'm not even sure an Iowa loss should even affect how we view the Republican primary overall
Crowdsource editing - article states that Kennedy led Carter in 2019 polling, should be 1979 I presume
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in polls, given Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves). In 2016, and 2020, the polling was way off; especially state polls.
Yesterday, 71% said Trump is more honest than their clergy, who mustered just 41%, believing the clergy over Trump. Does anyone actually believe this is the case? Trumpster’s continually lie to protect Trump and themselves.
Does anyone actually believe that these people are so clueless as to think Trump doesn’t lie, fabricate or at least exaggerate often?
I bet when push comes to shove, and we’re closer to the election with several debates in the bag, at least 40% of these people would vote for someone else if given the chance.
I refuse to believe even Trumpster’s and his low information voters, are this stupid! And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless; just not to this extent.
Just some thoughts...:)
We have good evidence that Trump's support is less elastic than predecessors though. He's been impeached twice, indicted four times, and is still polling 50% nationally. I think we can say with confidence that the 17-pt variance doesn't apply to him. If Selzer's giving him 42% support in August... safe to say he's gonna get 35% minimum.
Do you do the New Yorker cryptic crossword, Nate? You’re in it this week, in a clue that was too hard for me. https://www.newyorker.com/puzzles-and-games-dept/cryptic-crossword/2023/08/20
Glad to hear Nate is an Iowa 2020 truther.