1. A good point that Tim Miller made on Pod Save America: 2/3 of those supporting Trump are not looking at alternative candidates. So (about) 28% of the electorate is locked into Trump into Iowa.
If none of the other 14% end up supporting Trump, then about 40% of the 72% would have to consolidate around an alternative candidate, which seems doable. If half of the 14% end up supporting Trump, then the majority of the 65% would have to consolidate around an alternative, which seems much less likely.
2. While there have been swings larger than 23 points (Trump's current lead), it hasn't happened in the 21st century. Generally I think the more recent data is more informative than older data, but given all the weirdness of this cycle, perhaps it makes sense to build in more uncertainty.
3. Trump lost Iowa in 2016 but still won the primary rather easily. So I'm not even sure an Iowa loss should even affect how we view the Republican primary overall
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in polls, given Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves). In 2016, and 2020, the polling was way off; especially state polls.
Yesterday, 71% said Trump is more honest than their clergy, who mustered just 41%, believing the clergy over Trump. Does anyone actually believe this is the case? Trumpster’s continually lie to protect Trump and themselves.
Does anyone actually believe that these people are so clueless as to think Trump doesn’t lie, fabricate or at least exaggerate often?
I bet when push comes to shove, and we’re closer to the election with several debates in the bag, at least 40% of these people would vote for someone else if given the chance.
I refuse to believe even Trumpster’s and his low information voters, are this stupid! And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless; just not to this extent.
“Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves) … And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless”
If these imbeciles didn’t exist, then there wouldn’t be a problem. And if you read my post, you’d know that the pollsters themselves have claimed that MAGA supporters do lie, which is why they never get accurate data.
And I’m not the one storming the Capitol or believing trump is a truth-sayer, who doesn’t lie.
I’m not the one in denial; so actually, you are the problem!
Having spent time involved in GOP politics during the Tea Party movement I would argue the problem is the GOP establishment and not Trump voters. Trump essentially performed a hostile takeover of a bankrupt political party and gives voice to a group of people that were manipulated into supporting George W Bush who lied us into wars while selling us out to China.
If Trump loses in 2024 then he will have performed a very valuable service in transforming the GOP into a working class party while expunging the Bushes and Cheneys from the GOP…and just to be bipartisan I will throw in the fact he expunged the Clintons from politics although Clinton was a good president but good riddance!
To me GOPe and Freedom Caucus are equally nuts. Robert Gates and Condi Rice sound like morons when discussing the GWOT…but they do sound reasonable when discussing Ukraine which gives me hope that in a few years the GOPe will return to pre-W incarnation. But right now there is no good solution—only suboptimal solutions. But Republicans did vote out Cawthorn…silver linings and all that.
Fair enough, and very valid points. I agree with your assessment about the rise of the Tea Party which didn’t begin as a fringe movement, but more of a protest against the banking system that left tens of millions without jobs and destroyed IRA’s, 401k’s and pensions.
Additionally, it evolved into a movement because of the banking bailout, in which no one was held accountable. The bailout didn’t have strings attached to the money, so while 12 million lost jobs within a few months, and savings and retirement funds were down more than 50%, the masters of the universe decided to give themselves the largest bonuses in Wall Street history.
After that, protest morphed into the anti-Obama movement with “birth certificates and other nonsense. But you’re right, the politicians showed little to no backbone, a conservative court legalized bribery with unlimited dark money, and here we are...:)
Here is what was reported the day of the final primary in 2008 that isn’t quite remembered that way as members of the media discounted the role of superdelegates because they obviously supported Obama who had a lead in delegates but didn’t have enough delegates to secure the nomination:
When Rep. James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the No. 3 Democratic leader, abandoned his public neutrality Tuesday and endorsed Obama, it was a sign the end was near.
“Obviously we expected that when the die was cast and the hour was at hand that there would be a surge,” Schakowsky said. “That’s exactly what happened. Clyburn making his decision gave confidence to a number of members here that the time has come.”
Interesting. You know more about the Democratic Party than I do. I realized Clyburn was a king maker in the party, just not to this extent. Thank you..:)
I voted for Obama…but almost as embarrassing as my time around Tea Party Republicans was supporting Hillary in the 2008 primary. So I was reading all of Silver’s stuff in real time along with pretty much everything else but from the perspective of a Hillary supporter.
Remember the book “The Party Decides”? And remember how Clyburn played a part in Obama securing the 2008 nomination (we learned after the fact that Clyburn had been rounding up superdelegates to force Hillary out prior to the convention) AND everyone knows the role he played in 2020. So Clyburn is an establishment figure that voters trust because he delivers for voters! The Republican establishment couldn’t do what Clyburn did to defeat Trump because obviously GOP voters don’t trust them. So the key is asking “why don’t Republican voters trust their establishment?”
And I agree The Tea Party movement just ended up as blind rage at Obama and it failed. I was around people that were big deals but I wasn’t a big deal and I would argue the only way the Tea Party works is if Republicans are willing to vote Democrat if the candidates we supported lost in the primaries…which is exactly what Bush Republicans ended up doing with Trump.
We have good evidence that Trump's support is less elastic than predecessors though. He's been impeached twice, indicted four times, and is still polling 50% nationally. I think we can say with confidence that the 17-pt variance doesn't apply to him. If Selzer's giving him 42% support in August... safe to say he's gonna get 35% minimum.
1. A good point that Tim Miller made on Pod Save America: 2/3 of those supporting Trump are not looking at alternative candidates. So (about) 28% of the electorate is locked into Trump into Iowa.
If none of the other 14% end up supporting Trump, then about 40% of the 72% would have to consolidate around an alternative candidate, which seems doable. If half of the 14% end up supporting Trump, then the majority of the 65% would have to consolidate around an alternative, which seems much less likely.
2. While there have been swings larger than 23 points (Trump's current lead), it hasn't happened in the 21st century. Generally I think the more recent data is more informative than older data, but given all the weirdness of this cycle, perhaps it makes sense to build in more uncertainty.
3. Trump lost Iowa in 2016 but still won the primary rather easily. So I'm not even sure an Iowa loss should even affect how we view the Republican primary overall
Crowdsource editing - article states that Kennedy led Carter in 2019 polling, should be 1979 I presume
Honestly, I don’t put much stock in polls, given Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves). In 2016, and 2020, the polling was way off; especially state polls.
Yesterday, 71% said Trump is more honest than their clergy, who mustered just 41%, believing the clergy over Trump. Does anyone actually believe this is the case? Trumpster’s continually lie to protect Trump and themselves.
Does anyone actually believe that these people are so clueless as to think Trump doesn’t lie, fabricate or at least exaggerate often?
I bet when push comes to shove, and we’re closer to the election with several debates in the bag, at least 40% of these people would vote for someone else if given the chance.
I refuse to believe even Trumpster’s and his low information voters, are this stupid! And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless; just not to this extent.
Just some thoughts...:)
“Trump supporters are like Trump himself; they lie often, especially when it comes to polls (and to themselves) … And I do believe they are STUPID and reckless”
You are part of the problem.
If these imbeciles didn’t exist, then there wouldn’t be a problem. And if you read my post, you’d know that the pollsters themselves have claimed that MAGA supporters do lie, which is why they never get accurate data.
And I’m not the one storming the Capitol or believing trump is a truth-sayer, who doesn’t lie.
I’m not the one in denial; so actually, you are the problem!
Having spent time involved in GOP politics during the Tea Party movement I would argue the problem is the GOP establishment and not Trump voters. Trump essentially performed a hostile takeover of a bankrupt political party and gives voice to a group of people that were manipulated into supporting George W Bush who lied us into wars while selling us out to China.
If Trump loses in 2024 then he will have performed a very valuable service in transforming the GOP into a working class party while expunging the Bushes and Cheneys from the GOP…and just to be bipartisan I will throw in the fact he expunged the Clintons from politics although Clinton was a good president but good riddance!
“... performed a very valuable service in transforming the GOP into a working class party while expunging the Bushes and Cheneys from the GOP”
Hmm, and replaced them with performative lunatics like Taylor Green and the rest of the Freedom Caucus.
And Trump has zero respect for or interest in the working class other than as a means of getting elected: delusional to believe otherwise.
To me GOPe and Freedom Caucus are equally nuts. Robert Gates and Condi Rice sound like morons when discussing the GWOT…but they do sound reasonable when discussing Ukraine which gives me hope that in a few years the GOPe will return to pre-W incarnation. But right now there is no good solution—only suboptimal solutions. But Republicans did vote out Cawthorn…silver linings and all that.
Fair enough, and very valid points. I agree with your assessment about the rise of the Tea Party which didn’t begin as a fringe movement, but more of a protest against the banking system that left tens of millions without jobs and destroyed IRA’s, 401k’s and pensions.
Additionally, it evolved into a movement because of the banking bailout, in which no one was held accountable. The bailout didn’t have strings attached to the money, so while 12 million lost jobs within a few months, and savings and retirement funds were down more than 50%, the masters of the universe decided to give themselves the largest bonuses in Wall Street history.
After that, protest morphed into the anti-Obama movement with “birth certificates and other nonsense. But you’re right, the politicians showed little to no backbone, a conservative court legalized bribery with unlimited dark money, and here we are...:)
Here is what was reported the day of the final primary in 2008 that isn’t quite remembered that way as members of the media discounted the role of superdelegates because they obviously supported Obama who had a lead in delegates but didn’t have enough delegates to secure the nomination:
When Rep. James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, the No. 3 Democratic leader, abandoned his public neutrality Tuesday and endorsed Obama, it was a sign the end was near.
“Obviously we expected that when the die was cast and the hour was at hand that there would be a surge,” Schakowsky said. “That’s exactly what happened. Clyburn making his decision gave confidence to a number of members here that the time has come.”
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-jun-04-na-obama4-story.html
Interesting. You know more about the Democratic Party than I do. I realized Clyburn was a king maker in the party, just not to this extent. Thank you..:)
I voted for Obama…but almost as embarrassing as my time around Tea Party Republicans was supporting Hillary in the 2008 primary. So I was reading all of Silver’s stuff in real time along with pretty much everything else but from the perspective of a Hillary supporter.
Remember the book “The Party Decides”? And remember how Clyburn played a part in Obama securing the 2008 nomination (we learned after the fact that Clyburn had been rounding up superdelegates to force Hillary out prior to the convention) AND everyone knows the role he played in 2020. So Clyburn is an establishment figure that voters trust because he delivers for voters! The Republican establishment couldn’t do what Clyburn did to defeat Trump because obviously GOP voters don’t trust them. So the key is asking “why don’t Republican voters trust their establishment?”
And I agree The Tea Party movement just ended up as blind rage at Obama and it failed. I was around people that were big deals but I wasn’t a big deal and I would argue the only way the Tea Party works is if Republicans are willing to vote Democrat if the candidates we supported lost in the primaries…which is exactly what Bush Republicans ended up doing with Trump.
We have good evidence that Trump's support is less elastic than predecessors though. He's been impeached twice, indicted four times, and is still polling 50% nationally. I think we can say with confidence that the 17-pt variance doesn't apply to him. If Selzer's giving him 42% support in August... safe to say he's gonna get 35% minimum.
Do you do the New Yorker cryptic crossword, Nate? You’re in it this week, in a clue that was too hard for me. https://www.newyorker.com/puzzles-and-games-dept/cryptic-crossword/2023/08/20
Glad to hear Nate is an Iowa 2020 truther.