My problem with this is that I suspect he lost yield after the debate last night. I watched the debate along with some conservative relatives, and all of them had gone in with a position something like "I've read some stuff about that Ramaswamy guy and he seems cool, I'd vote for him". After the debate, all of them really disliked him and definitely wanted to vote for another candidate instead of him.
Now, of course that was an n=4, and a highly correlated n=4 for that matter, but I suspect that the general dynamic will hold true. He might rise in polls a bit, but some of the people that would potentially support him were also driven away last night and that will definitely hurt his polling numbers. I'd probably give around 50% that he will rise in polls in the next month, definitely not 85%.
It's kind of funny reading the NY Times panel coverage of the debate performances. The overwhelming opinion about Ramaswamy was things like "Irritating", "obnoxious", "preening", "lightweight" - you get the picture. My guess is that's what a good portion of the GOP is looking for.
It might be better to assess Ramaswamy’s impact without actually watching his performance as the level of shameless, exuberant, amoral pandering and radiant self-love could easily lead to a revulsion that impairs judgement. He may be more annoying that Josh Hawley.
This post is good, but also very disappointing. I notice an extreme lack of the word "policy." It basically makes it clear that media attention (and it's fanatical novelty seeking) is the prime mover. And also why Trump is so successful, because he most successfully and consistently feeds it. How can a new candidate break the joint Deep Media-Trump self-reinforcing alliance? The answer would seem to be "consistently attract even more outrageous attention" but is there any venn diagram overlap with that and "good policy"? Would the DMT even let that happen?
Ramaswamy has a ton of charisma and is highly intelligent. He can learn and grow on policy, more so than DeSantis or a highly intelligent/successful Bergstrum can learn to communicate with energy and excitement. I thought Nikki did well enough to get a boost, and seemed like the only one who tried to speak to women instead of down to women. Will be interesting to see if her polls pick-up as well.
Let's take a deeper dive into why the traffic might be up His followers until tonight trended young, ergo, more online. He had a decent start, and then cracked. So people may want to know, did he say he was cutting off aid to Israel? Prohibit govt workers from joining a union? Give 1/3 or Ukraine to Putin? And not vet what would happen if Putin felt empowered to roll into Poland? Did he really plagiarize Obama extensively? Require those under 25 to join the armed forces to vote? Registered Independent? Voted once in his life? Took a Soros scholars grant as a multi millionaire? Yes to ALL! People are looking to confirm the disqualifying things. Now Look at Nikki Haley! What pundit before and after the debate hyped her? Who would have predicted her traffic would be so high?
Can you and Clare Malone start a new politics podcast? I miss listening to you guys. You made the 2020 election so much fun, especially the primaries.
My problem with this is that I suspect he lost yield after the debate last night. I watched the debate along with some conservative relatives, and all of them had gone in with a position something like "I've read some stuff about that Ramaswamy guy and he seems cool, I'd vote for him". After the debate, all of them really disliked him and definitely wanted to vote for another candidate instead of him.
Now, of course that was an n=4, and a highly correlated n=4 for that matter, but I suspect that the general dynamic will hold true. He might rise in polls a bit, but some of the people that would potentially support him were also driven away last night and that will definitely hurt his polling numbers. I'd probably give around 50% that he will rise in polls in the next month, definitely not 85%.
It's kind of funny reading the NY Times panel coverage of the debate performances. The overwhelming opinion about Ramaswamy was things like "Irritating", "obnoxious", "preening", "lightweight" - you get the picture. My guess is that's what a good portion of the GOP is looking for.
It might be better to assess Ramaswamy’s impact without actually watching his performance as the level of shameless, exuberant, amoral pandering and radiant self-love could easily lead to a revulsion that impairs judgement. He may be more annoying that Josh Hawley.
This post is good, but also very disappointing. I notice an extreme lack of the word "policy." It basically makes it clear that media attention (and it's fanatical novelty seeking) is the prime mover. And also why Trump is so successful, because he most successfully and consistently feeds it. How can a new candidate break the joint Deep Media-Trump self-reinforcing alliance? The answer would seem to be "consistently attract even more outrageous attention" but is there any venn diagram overlap with that and "good policy"? Would the DMT even let that happen?
Nate, The link to Schelling focal point is broken. Not sure if it was supposed to go to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focal_point_(game_theory) or something else.
The 15% happened, Ramaswamy's pre-debate polling surge (10%) was a mirage, he's back to 7%.
This poll rise doesn't seem to have materialized.
Describing 85% confidence results as "physics" is like the crime of stolen valor.
Ramaswamy has a ton of charisma and is highly intelligent. He can learn and grow on policy, more so than DeSantis or a highly intelligent/successful Bergstrum can learn to communicate with energy and excitement. I thought Nikki did well enough to get a boost, and seemed like the only one who tried to speak to women instead of down to women. Will be interesting to see if her polls pick-up as well.
Let's take a deeper dive into why the traffic might be up His followers until tonight trended young, ergo, more online. He had a decent start, and then cracked. So people may want to know, did he say he was cutting off aid to Israel? Prohibit govt workers from joining a union? Give 1/3 or Ukraine to Putin? And not vet what would happen if Putin felt empowered to roll into Poland? Did he really plagiarize Obama extensively? Require those under 25 to join the armed forces to vote? Registered Independent? Voted once in his life? Took a Soros scholars grant as a multi millionaire? Yes to ALL! People are looking to confirm the disqualifying things. Now Look at Nikki Haley! What pundit before and after the debate hyped her? Who would have predicted her traffic would be so high?