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Autumn's avatar

Can you and Clare Malone start a new politics podcast? I miss listening to you guys. You made the 2020 election so much fun, especially the primaries.

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gmt's avatar

My problem with this is that I suspect he lost yield after the debate last night. I watched the debate along with some conservative relatives, and all of them had gone in with a position something like "I've read some stuff about that Ramaswamy guy and he seems cool, I'd vote for him". After the debate, all of them really disliked him and definitely wanted to vote for another candidate instead of him.

Now, of course that was an n=4, and a highly correlated n=4 for that matter, but I suspect that the general dynamic will hold true. He might rise in polls a bit, but some of the people that would potentially support him were also driven away last night and that will definitely hurt his polling numbers. I'd probably give around 50% that he will rise in polls in the next month, definitely not 85%.

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