Is Trump a lame duck?
So far, Trump’s approval ratings have had a high floor. But second terms are often turbulent, and Trump has the economy, age and Epstein to worry about.
The school of thought that President Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn’t move his numbers with his base isn’t quite right. For instance, Trump’s approval ratings suffered in April after a series of tariff announcements triggered voter anxiety about the economy. More recently, they fell amid the shutdown after Trump and Republicans threatened SNAP benefits.
Still, it’s more than fair to make fun of commentators who claim that the sky is always falling for Donald Trump, that we’ve finally passed some point of no return where his popularity and political capital will fall into a downward spiral. After all, these predictions have been wrong over and over again for literally a decade now.1
Lately, there’s been another round of sky-is-falling headlines, suggesting that Trump’s hold on the GOP has finally weakened. But honestly, the case is stronger than usual because November has been a particularly rough month for the president.
Two weeks ago, Republicans got blown out in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere. Democrats may have bungled their shutdown strategy, but Trump’s popularity suffered, too.
Meanwhile, in Indiana, Republicans are resisting Trump’s pressure to redistrict one or both of the Democrats in their Congressional delegation out of office. In fact, after the passage of Prop 50 in California, redistricting may not be a net gain for Republicans at all.
And then there’s Jeffrey Epstein.
OK, fine, let’s talk about Epstein
Epsteingate is not my favorite story to cover. Not that I don’t find it interesting or salacious. I sometimes get lumped in with defenders of the political establishment. But I have a strongly negative view of political elites, and I’m rooting for everything and everyone to be exposed in as much detail as possible.