I appreciate the analysis, but to be brutally honest, you undercut it with statements like, "many Democrats are also racial minorities who can face steeper barriers to voting."
Can someone please explain to me what specific barriers black or brown people face to voting? In 2024, not 1964? Not based on class (poor and broke people have a variety of barriers to many things, some of which are unjust) but based on their skin color. Can anyone actually think of any?
I’m mid 60’s. Democrat my entire adult life. Gave thousands of dollars. After Covid, and all that it revealed about democrats, never again. None of your speculations apply to me and others who see the party as illiberal (that’s the kindest word I can use to describe the despicable conduct since 2016).
I would posit illegal immigration is a key reason. When even left leaning cities are flooded with illegals and they have to share the cost traditionally borne by border towns, they realize that Democrats have intentionally allowed up to 10 million illegals in. Schools and hotels in NYC being used to house illegals. Female students being murdered by illegals. Crime gangs in Southern California originating from South America conducting a rash of burglaries and robberies. This is the issue Biden polls weakest in.
The Times Board implored Biden to come in and sit for a serious interview and instead Biden went on a late night tv show. Dowd and the new Times poll along with Ezra Klein has started the ball rolling and Biden will have yo do extended serious interviews that last not 10 minutes but one or two hours. Better than Trump is a thin argument.
I think there’s just too much uncertainty with the mood of the electorate. Biden is much weaker than he was in 2020. People have forgotten about the surliness of living under Trump or see him as not being that awful compared to Biden. I think this year is a toss up. I wish Dems had chosen or will choose a stronger candidate.
Mountain State Independent here who voted Third-Party in both 2016 & 2020, who perhaps can give some non-biased, dispassionate perspective.
1. The number of voters who find Trump 'Appealing' is roughly equal to the number of voters who find Trump 'Appalling'. BOTH of those numbers combined are a minority of voters.
2. Other than regular readers of the NYT, WSJ and WAPO, most voters don't care much about politics. And while the readers of those three publications are passionate, vocal, and highly visible, all three groups COMBINED are a MINORITY of voters.
3. The majority of voters don't use dis-embodied statistics to judge things: Whether the economy is good or bad is determined by whether they have more or less money in their checking accounts at the end of each pay-period. Whether crime is up or down is determined by whether or not the toothpaste is locked up in Walgreens and CVS. Whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction is determined by whether or not they have to walk past homeless encampments in their towns.
4. The election will be determined by whether voters think their INDIVIDUAL lives will be better or worse with candidate 'A' or candidate 'B'.
5. As the late Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill correctly said so many years ago, "All politics is LOCAL".
JFC enough with this nonsense about early polls. The race is a RE-MATCH between two people who have BOTH been President before. We’ve not had a race like this since 1892. There weren’t even pollsters back then, so how can you draw any conclusions about how polls in a race like this perform? Without paying a single second of attention to either campaign, the voters can ALREADY DETERMINE who they like better, because they have SAMPLED both presidencies before. The Biden-Trump “Pepsi challenge” is OVER.
No no no, it's so obvious how are you missing it? Young, progressive, self identifying BIPOC or LGBTQIA+ voters are so upset with Biden's handling of Gaza or his not being hawkish enough on climate change that they're going to vote for the notoriously pro-Palestine, pro-green energy, social justice minded Donald Trump.
Overall I agree with you, although I do think there's a risk of lower base turnout. The more leftish voters are younger who are less likely to vote in general, more easily disillusioned (due to everything being a new experience, not having seen how things work before, etc.) and are less likely to remember what the Trump administration was like, so if I had to bet on a politically engaged group most likely to sit things out it's them. Which is just one more reason Biden should have been pushing hard for swing voters from the beginning.
Very true about Obama, but his 2012 victory actually shows the downside of the turnout strategy. If he was a generational talent, and I agree he was, it’s surprising that he won by a slimmer margin in 2012 than 2008. That’s the opposite of the norm; he was the first president in since Roosevelt to win in that fashion. There is absolutely no substitute for persuasion.
Btw, if a candidate has a problem with swing voters it's because their policy platform and/or their campaign strategy stinks. Democracy is about appealing to the center, not GOTV.
"Nevertheless, Biden does have a lot of substantive, bipartisan accomplishments that he can tout. The White House often doesn’t focus on this, instead devoting a high percentage of their bandwidth to the dangers of Trump." So true--scares lifetime Dems maybe but indicative of failures to inform/tout so many good things. Google "Biden for President" and all you get is a site that lets you donate, donate, donate and a video. Nothing about his accomplishments. Look further down in Google search list and it will suggest a White House site. There you get wonky lists and lists of great things he has indeed done, but it is all college-level answers and no sense of a designed-to-inform format. Nor are you invited to ask a question if you click on what seems like an opp to do that. True, websites don't win elections, but just indicative of not even trying to message wherever possible. Moreover, strong Democrats who want to help don't get any sense of what their polling says will resonate with independents to help convey that message in letters to the editor or in conversations.
Unfortunately, you reveal your own biases in your analysis. Seems that nobody in the political media can resist their ideological and partisan biases, but the problem comes when it slants their analysis. Why carry water for Democrats? Or Republicans? Or either Trump or Biden? We need better political leaders and the problem is systemic.
Biden is in a whole heap of trouble with the electorate, but nobody who's poisoned by the TDS Kool-aid can admit it. So they put the ball in their opponent's court and Trump is no slouch when it comes to outplaying his enemies. C'est la guerre.
I appreciate the analysis, but to be brutally honest, you undercut it with statements like, "many Democrats are also racial minorities who can face steeper barriers to voting."
Can someone please explain to me what specific barriers black or brown people face to voting? In 2024, not 1964? Not based on class (poor and broke people have a variety of barriers to many things, some of which are unjust) but based on their skin color. Can anyone actually think of any?
I’m mid 60’s. Democrat my entire adult life. Gave thousands of dollars. After Covid, and all that it revealed about democrats, never again. None of your speculations apply to me and others who see the party as illiberal (that’s the kindest word I can use to describe the despicable conduct since 2016).
I would posit illegal immigration is a key reason. When even left leaning cities are flooded with illegals and they have to share the cost traditionally borne by border towns, they realize that Democrats have intentionally allowed up to 10 million illegals in. Schools and hotels in NYC being used to house illegals. Female students being murdered by illegals. Crime gangs in Southern California originating from South America conducting a rash of burglaries and robberies. This is the issue Biden polls weakest in.
Registered college grad D, lack of primary in FL very discouraging.
Will prob vote for RFKjr. Will not vote for Biden.
A lot of good points, but no emphasis on the border. Something Biden can do more to fix and it’s important to voters.
The Times Board implored Biden to come in and sit for a serious interview and instead Biden went on a late night tv show. Dowd and the new Times poll along with Ezra Klein has started the ball rolling and Biden will have yo do extended serious interviews that last not 10 minutes but one or two hours. Better than Trump is a thin argument.
The quality of comments on this substack is unworthy of Nate’s fine career.
But OUR problem is how the DNC doesn't trust democracy to select our candidates.
I think there’s just too much uncertainty with the mood of the electorate. Biden is much weaker than he was in 2020. People have forgotten about the surliness of living under Trump or see him as not being that awful compared to Biden. I think this year is a toss up. I wish Dems had chosen or will choose a stronger candidate.
Mountain State Independent here who voted Third-Party in both 2016 & 2020, who perhaps can give some non-biased, dispassionate perspective.
1. The number of voters who find Trump 'Appealing' is roughly equal to the number of voters who find Trump 'Appalling'. BOTH of those numbers combined are a minority of voters.
2. Other than regular readers of the NYT, WSJ and WAPO, most voters don't care much about politics. And while the readers of those three publications are passionate, vocal, and highly visible, all three groups COMBINED are a MINORITY of voters.
3. The majority of voters don't use dis-embodied statistics to judge things: Whether the economy is good or bad is determined by whether they have more or less money in their checking accounts at the end of each pay-period. Whether crime is up or down is determined by whether or not the toothpaste is locked up in Walgreens and CVS. Whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction is determined by whether or not they have to walk past homeless encampments in their towns.
4. The election will be determined by whether voters think their INDIVIDUAL lives will be better or worse with candidate 'A' or candidate 'B'.
5. As the late Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill correctly said so many years ago, "All politics is LOCAL".
It’s really not that complicated.
JFC enough with this nonsense about early polls. The race is a RE-MATCH between two people who have BOTH been President before. We’ve not had a race like this since 1892. There weren’t even pollsters back then, so how can you draw any conclusions about how polls in a race like this perform? Without paying a single second of attention to either campaign, the voters can ALREADY DETERMINE who they like better, because they have SAMPLED both presidencies before. The Biden-Trump “Pepsi challenge” is OVER.
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1R62oMlZBoLMCkuVTJsoo_6Sp6uvmgadST9nDPfx9iWY/edit
No no no, it's so obvious how are you missing it? Young, progressive, self identifying BIPOC or LGBTQIA+ voters are so upset with Biden's handling of Gaza or his not being hawkish enough on climate change that they're going to vote for the notoriously pro-Palestine, pro-green energy, social justice minded Donald Trump.
Overall I agree with you, although I do think there's a risk of lower base turnout. The more leftish voters are younger who are less likely to vote in general, more easily disillusioned (due to everything being a new experience, not having seen how things work before, etc.) and are less likely to remember what the Trump administration was like, so if I had to bet on a politically engaged group most likely to sit things out it's them. Which is just one more reason Biden should have been pushing hard for swing voters from the beginning.
Very true about Obama, but his 2012 victory actually shows the downside of the turnout strategy. If he was a generational talent, and I agree he was, it’s surprising that he won by a slimmer margin in 2012 than 2008. That’s the opposite of the norm; he was the first president in since Roosevelt to win in that fashion. There is absolutely no substitute for persuasion.
Btw, if a candidate has a problem with swing voters it's because their policy platform and/or their campaign strategy stinks. Democracy is about appealing to the center, not GOTV.
"Nevertheless, Biden does have a lot of substantive, bipartisan accomplishments that he can tout. The White House often doesn’t focus on this, instead devoting a high percentage of their bandwidth to the dangers of Trump." So true--scares lifetime Dems maybe but indicative of failures to inform/tout so many good things. Google "Biden for President" and all you get is a site that lets you donate, donate, donate and a video. Nothing about his accomplishments. Look further down in Google search list and it will suggest a White House site. There you get wonky lists and lists of great things he has indeed done, but it is all college-level answers and no sense of a designed-to-inform format. Nor are you invited to ask a question if you click on what seems like an opp to do that. True, websites don't win elections, but just indicative of not even trying to message wherever possible. Moreover, strong Democrats who want to help don't get any sense of what their polling says will resonate with independents to help convey that message in letters to the editor or in conversations.
Unfortunately, you reveal your own biases in your analysis. Seems that nobody in the political media can resist their ideological and partisan biases, but the problem comes when it slants their analysis. Why carry water for Democrats? Or Republicans? Or either Trump or Biden? We need better political leaders and the problem is systemic.
Biden is in a whole heap of trouble with the electorate, but nobody who's poisoned by the TDS Kool-aid can admit it. So they put the ball in their opponent's court and Trump is no slouch when it comes to outplaying his enemies. C'est la guerre.