Archive - Silver Bulletin

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

Nov 5, 2024 •

and

Eli McKown-Dawson

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong

Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.

Nov 3, 2024 •

24 reasons that Trump won

We don't lack in explanations for why he returned to the White House.

Oct 20, 2024 •

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.

Nov 5, 2024 •

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.

Nov 1, 2024 •

A tour of the 7½ key swing states

There’s a 92 percent chance that this is where the election is decided.

Sep 21, 2024 •

Kamala Harris got the debate she wanted

16 quick thoughts on tonight's debate

Sep 11, 2024 •

The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City

The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.

Nov 6, 2024 •

New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment

Should you buy it?

Oct 12, 2024 •

The state of play in the 7 states that will decide the election

Plus, re-examining the possibility of an Electoral College split favoring Harris.

Oct 26, 2024 •

We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.

Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.

Aug 24, 2024 •

The 128 paths to the White House

From the Sun Belt to the Rust Belt, which maps are most likely?

Sep 29, 2024 •

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