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FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
 • 
Nate Silver
 and 
Eli McKown-Dawson
A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong
Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.
 • 
Nate Silver
24 reasons that Trump won
We don't lack in explanations for why he returned to the White House.
 • 
Nate Silver
A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast
So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.
 • 
Nate Silver
There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands
Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.
 • 
Nate Silver
A tour of the 7½ key swing states
There’s a 92 percent chance that this is where the election is decided.
 • 
Nate Silver
Kamala Harris got the debate she wanted
16 quick thoughts on tonight's debate
 • 
Nate Silver
The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City
The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train.
 • 
Nate Silver
New York Times polls are betting on a political realignment
Should you buy it?
 • 
Nate Silver
The state of play in the 7 states that will decide the election
Plus, re-examining the possibility of an Electoral College split favoring Harris.
 • 
Nate Silver
We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.
Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.
 • 
Nate Silver
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