If a person thinks "the Democrats are too far to the left" or buys that shallow line from the mainstream corporate media, they were never going to vote for any Democrat anyway, aren't a swing voter, and aren't worth the Democrats bending over backwards to try and court at the expense of demoralizing the liberal/socialist base of the party.
Ah yes - If the People Who Don't Agree with Us Already Don't Buy Us then obviously we must retrench on our loser faction to lose in more elegant and morally pure ways to prove our moral superiority.
Is there a way to use what you generate with your model to estimate the effects on state legislative races? Not necessarily a specific prediction, but some range of influence, given the model's view of how things are changing (say, from 2024 or from 2022) to get an idea of how much we'd expect the same legislative district and candidate(s) to change?
When you release the model, could you make the individual sims available to subscribers? It'd be fun and interesting to be able to explore all sorts of custom scenarios.
> I think people forget the longer tail of races like Iowa, for example. If you look at Iowa, it is polling as a toss-up, basically. With the fundamentals, my guess is the model will have it as “lean R” — I don’t remember offhand — but Iowa is a big deal.
If a person thinks "the Democrats are too far to the left" or buys that shallow line from the mainstream corporate media, they were never going to vote for any Democrat anyway, aren't a swing voter, and aren't worth the Democrats bending over backwards to try and court at the expense of demoralizing the liberal/socialist base of the party.
Ah yes - If the People Who Don't Agree with Us Already Don't Buy Us then obviously we must retrench on our loser faction to lose in more elegant and morally pure ways to prove our moral superiority.
What's with the low video quality?
Is there a way to use what you generate with your model to estimate the effects on state legislative races? Not necessarily a specific prediction, but some range of influence, given the model's view of how things are changing (say, from 2024 or from 2022) to get an idea of how much we'd expect the same legislative district and candidate(s) to change?
When you release the model, could you make the individual sims available to subscribers? It'd be fun and interesting to be able to explore all sorts of custom scenarios.
I listens to this whole conversation and no mention of my personal dark horse Iowa 😔
Not none!
> I think people forget the longer tail of races like Iowa, for example. If you look at Iowa, it is polling as a toss-up, basically. With the fundamentals, my guess is the model will have it as “lean R” — I don’t remember offhand — but Iowa is a big deal.