Personally I'd want whatever project is next to have significant writing contributions from you. My feeling has been that as you've taken a step back from writing on 538 (presumably to work on the book) I've been less interested in it. It's not that the remaining staff are bad, but I've followed 538 since basically the beginning and find that your analysis (vs the more general "data driven journalism") is what I'm most interested in.
Good luck on figuring out where to go, and it's definitely a bummer that the mouse murdered 538.
Missed you on the latest pod.. What I really missed was your willingness to challenging the framing or the conventional wisdom. We need more courage in the media.
I know the 538 sub-reddit has fantasized about a reunion podcast with you and some of the other 538 staff that were let go (e.g. Clare Malone and Perry Bacon Jr.). I realize this would be harder to pull off now that y’all are at different orgs but 538 is one of the few politics podcasts I rely on to give myself a chronological sense of what’s going on in politics, as the rest of digital media quickly gets very disorganized and spin-driven. If you were to create a new independent podcast I’d definitely listen.
I would love a reunion podcast of sorts (Jody, Clare, Harry, and Nate?!!?!), but I agree that may be tricky to pull off. While I'm generally not a fan of interview based podcasts, I feel like a) there's alot of potential for bringing in former/current 538 staff for great conversations with Nate, as well as people in the broader spheres he is interested in and b) I've always enjoyed model talk so there's some proof of concept for the 1:1 conversation (though maybe that's a testament to Galen and Nate's chemistry)
Personally, would love to see some percentage of articles be more highly technical (even dry, academic-type).
Just my taste, but I really enjoyed 538 most when it got really into the modelling. As a professional Data Scientist, I might not be super representative though.
IMO over the last couple of years 538 seemed to get more into cultural politics, sentiment polling, etc. that seemed to toe more of the traditional MSM line. I don’t dislike that per-se, but that’s readily available elsewhere and didn’t fit the niche that I was looking for with 538
I’m not a data scientist but I did figure out the framework for what determined Covid death rate for populations in America. So all things being equal % below poverty level would have determined the population’s Covid death rate…but different populations did different things. So:
1. Initial wave (NY etc by far highest death day totals were from spread before mitigation measures were implemented)
2. Travel restrictions (both actual like Hawaii which has the lowest Covid death rate and effective like Vermont and Florida Keys which meant people weren’t passing through via highways)
3. After January 2021 working class Trump populations have significantly higher death rates than Democratic and wealthier Republican populations.
4. The few young and fit populations in America as age is a bigger factor on the low end. (So Utah and DC and Austin have such young populations they could lead their lives without fear of severe Covid illness). New England populations shows society could be transformed to protect the elderly and so adjusting for age once mitigation measures are implemented doesn’t make sense. Although now that we are in the endemic phase adjusting for age makes sense for the endemic phase.
I really enjoyed your book “The Signal and the Noise” and would love to read more long-form content that breaks down statistics and epistemology into terms people without a math degree can understand, especially using topical real world examples. I’m really into the big picture, meta, “how do we know what we know? Can we trust it?” philosophy of science type stuff.
I think gambling content is saturating the web. I honestly can't think of a bigger waste of your talents than writing about like fantasy sports or poker odds. Here's hoping you stick to more substantive data journalism!
I’d be interested in learning about how local governments could better understand what their constituents thing about different issues. The current model of meet and greets or city hall meetings does not seem like a great way to get at the median voter’s opinion about, like, an apartment building
Good luck, Nate! Glad to see you on here. For what it's worth (very little), my opinion is that you should focus on what you're great at - understanding and interpreting data.
There's no shortage of hot takes out there, but not many people who can tell you how seriously should take results from studies, polls, etc.
Looking forward to your book. I've been a fan of you and the various versions of 538 for a long time, and having read and loved Positively Fifth Street I really look forward to your take on Poker journalism when you become part of the story, I really hope that is going to be part of it.
I've been team Nate Silver since back in the day when we were both budding sabermetricans in the late 1990s/early 2000s. Ahh the good old days. So, I'm excited to see wherever you go next. So, no matter what the survey responses are remember that there could be a market out there that hasn't been built yet so make sure to allocate some of your time to pursuing whatever is your passion or that idea it problem that keeps you up at night. Go get 'em!
Personally I'd want whatever project is next to have significant writing contributions from you. My feeling has been that as you've taken a step back from writing on 538 (presumably to work on the book) I've been less interested in it. It's not that the remaining staff are bad, but I've followed 538 since basically the beginning and find that your analysis (vs the more general "data driven journalism") is what I'm most interested in.
Good luck on figuring out where to go, and it's definitely a bummer that the mouse murdered 538.
Strongly agree with this.
Missed you on the latest pod.. What I really missed was your willingness to challenging the framing or the conventional wisdom. We need more courage in the media.
I know the 538 sub-reddit has fantasized about a reunion podcast with you and some of the other 538 staff that were let go (e.g. Clare Malone and Perry Bacon Jr.). I realize this would be harder to pull off now that y’all are at different orgs but 538 is one of the few politics podcasts I rely on to give myself a chronological sense of what’s going on in politics, as the rest of digital media quickly gets very disorganized and spin-driven. If you were to create a new independent podcast I’d definitely listen.
I would love a reunion podcast of sorts (Jody, Clare, Harry, and Nate?!!?!), but I agree that may be tricky to pull off. While I'm generally not a fan of interview based podcasts, I feel like a) there's alot of potential for bringing in former/current 538 staff for great conversations with Nate, as well as people in the broader spheres he is interested in and b) I've always enjoyed model talk so there's some proof of concept for the 1:1 conversation (though maybe that's a testament to Galen and Nate's chemistry)
Personally, would love to see some percentage of articles be more highly technical (even dry, academic-type).
Just my taste, but I really enjoyed 538 most when it got really into the modelling. As a professional Data Scientist, I might not be super representative though.
IMO over the last couple of years 538 seemed to get more into cultural politics, sentiment polling, etc. that seemed to toe more of the traditional MSM line. I don’t dislike that per-se, but that’s readily available elsewhere and didn’t fit the niche that I was looking for with 538
I’m not a data scientist but I did figure out the framework for what determined Covid death rate for populations in America. So all things being equal % below poverty level would have determined the population’s Covid death rate…but different populations did different things. So:
1. Initial wave (NY etc by far highest death day totals were from spread before mitigation measures were implemented)
2. Travel restrictions (both actual like Hawaii which has the lowest Covid death rate and effective like Vermont and Florida Keys which meant people weren’t passing through via highways)
3. After January 2021 working class Trump populations have significantly higher death rates than Democratic and wealthier Republican populations.
4. The few young and fit populations in America as age is a bigger factor on the low end. (So Utah and DC and Austin have such young populations they could lead their lives without fear of severe Covid illness). New England populations shows society could be transformed to protect the elderly and so adjusting for age once mitigation measures are implemented doesn’t make sense. Although now that we are in the endemic phase adjusting for age makes sense for the endemic phase.
That said if you want a professional DS to contribute some pro-bono article work for this new Substack, would love to help out!
I really enjoyed your book “The Signal and the Noise” and would love to read more long-form content that breaks down statistics and epistemology into terms people without a math degree can understand, especially using topical real world examples. I’m really into the big picture, meta, “how do we know what we know? Can we trust it?” philosophy of science type stuff.
I think gambling content is saturating the web. I honestly can't think of a bigger waste of your talents than writing about like fantasy sports or poker odds. Here's hoping you stick to more substantive data journalism!
"(Dog grooming is not actually one of the choices.)"
Gays against groomers?
I saw this as an option in the survey, so I'd like to specify that I've liked your recent commentary on AI!
But if you're asking for the kind of content to make, I'd put in a vote for a regular podcast.
Podcast
I’d be interested in learning about how local governments could better understand what their constituents thing about different issues. The current model of meet and greets or city hall meetings does not seem like a great way to get at the median voter’s opinion about, like, an apartment building
Love the 538 podcast. Would like to hear you continue to talk about politics, etc.
I want Nate Silver's Unfiltered Long Reads! On every topic! That's the best part about Substack.
Good luck, Nate! Glad to see you on here. For what it's worth (very little), my opinion is that you should focus on what you're great at - understanding and interpreting data.
There's no shortage of hot takes out there, but not many people who can tell you how seriously should take results from studies, polls, etc.
Looking forward to your book. I've been a fan of you and the various versions of 538 for a long time, and having read and loved Positively Fifth Street I really look forward to your take on Poker journalism when you become part of the story, I really hope that is going to be part of it.
I've been team Nate Silver since back in the day when we were both budding sabermetricans in the late 1990s/early 2000s. Ahh the good old days. So, I'm excited to see wherever you go next. So, no matter what the survey responses are remember that there could be a market out there that hasn't been built yet so make sure to allocate some of your time to pursuing whatever is your passion or that idea it problem that keeps you up at night. Go get 'em!
I'm not personally all that interested in sports or gambling, but I'm likely happy to read anything else listed on that form.