62 Comments

"if you didn’t preface every reference to Donald Trump by calling him a fascist or some other epitaph."

I think the word you're looking for is "epithet", though it may end up being his epitaph as well.

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The banksters need a war desperately right now. They’ve tried so hard in Syria, and it just hasn’t worked. Then they got crazy Trump actually saying we should stay out of the Middle East and focus on our own problems, and people were listening . . .

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“The worst single mistake ever made in the history of our country: going into the Middle East, by President Bush.” — Donald Trump

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What’s a self-respecting globalist financier to do?

So, they sent their puppets like McCain, Romney, Clinton, and Biden out to talk up the fight against “evil” and threaten Russia, hoping to fool those dumb white ‘Murkins one more time into sending their sons off to die for God and Country and Goldman Sachs.

The recently ousted Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, who took at least a dozen votes to get elected speaker, traveled to Israel immediately upon his election, declaring to the Israeli Knesset that the USA is steadfastly committed to supporting Ukraine in their war against Russia.

It has become so painfully obvious, especially where you have someone like Nikki Haley wagging her finger and shouting down Vivek Ramaswamy in a presidential debate on live national television when the questions of this Ukrainian war against Russia and any mention of Israel are concerned, that the United States government has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the American Israeli Political Action Committee.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/oh-how-fond-they-are-of-the-book

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There is some survivorship bias in your pre 1992 data, I think. Both Johnson and Truman elected not to run again because of their unpopularity. Their potential second runs are not counted in the data, yet they almost certainly would drag the incumbency advantage down had they run.

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In what the late Saddam Hussein once dubbed “the great Satan,” roughly two-thirds of the United States enlisted military corps is white . . .

The fat, bulbous U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once confirmed in a 93-2 vote of the U.S. Senate, immediately embarked on a whirlwind media tour of duty, telling the pseudo-secular sycophants in the state-controlled tabloid press and state-controlled television talk show circuit about how the U.S. Army is full of bad racist white men.

And now the U.S. Army is doing ads begging for more young white males? What happened?

Even with a full-on declaration of war from Congress, and even if Gavin Newsome could be cheated into the Oval Office by ZOG somehow, with Globohomo diversity brigades going door-to-door looking to impress American children into military service, they will be met with armed, well-trained opposition, the invasion at the Southern border is going full tilt, and the drugs are flowing in like never before . . .

People are done fighting wars for these psychotic kikesucking Zionist ass-whores . . . With the borders of Europe and the USA wide open, civil warfare within the USA, Britain, and most of Europe is a certainty if foreign wars are initiated. Nobody is going to fight a war for Biden, he is dumber than Bush . . . Nobody is going to fight a war for that kikesucking Zionist ass-whore Nikki Haley, and I mean nobody.

Get ready for it . . . the fat old devil worshipping fags on Capitol Hill, on Wall Street, in Whitehall, and in Brussels are in no shape to fight a war themselves, and most Americans are armed to the teeth with their own guns . . .

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/satanism-is-a-jewish-cult

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We’ve had 45 presidents not counting Biden…that’s always seemed like too small a sample size to draw conclusions from. Eyeballing everything there does seem to some incumbency bias (2004 sticks out because his approval started declining in January 2005 never to return) but an incumbent can be beat.

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Dec 15, 2023·edited Dec 15, 2023

44 POTUS not counting Biden ... #s 22 and 24 was the same guy

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One sometimes wonders why the European left gets along so well with Muslims. Why does an often overtly anti-religious movement take the side of a fierce religiosity that seems to oppose almost everything the left has always claimed to stand for? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Islam and Marxism have a common ideological root: Judaism.

Don Rumsfeld was right with the comment ‘Europe has shifted on its axis’, the wrong side won WW2, and it is becoming clearer with each and every day . . . What has NATO done to defend Europe? Absolutely nothing . . . My enemies are not in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, or in some ethereal Teutonic boogeyman, my enemies are in Washington, Brussels, and Tel Aviv.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/pardonne-mon-francais-va-te-faire

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I love the balancing act between the left constantly acting like the entire economy is a total abysmal tire fire for all workers constantly who are all one bad government policy for total destitution...and then them defending Biden due to the strong economic figures.

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It would cost $20 billion to build apartments for every homeless person in America to live in until they died, and the traitors in Washington D.C. sent ten times that to the cross-dressing gay satanist Israeli operative Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine . . .

The cryptic and archaic emoting of the “anarcho-capitalist” liber-tard-ians, with their badly camouflaged epistemology is a mix of Russian Jew Ayn Rand and pedophile devil worshipper Aleister Crowley, who's Thelemite cult is really the brainchild of pedophile Jew Israel Regardie . . . their transexual Baphomet goat god is a creation of devil worshipping Jew Eliphas Levi . . . From the Zodiac killer to the Nightstalker, to Jonestown, it’s the same cult of bloodthirsty, psychotic devil worshipping nutjobs . . .

https://cwspangle.substack.com/i/138320669/so-remember-every-picture-tells-a-story-dont-it-rod-stewart

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>it would cost $20 billion to build apartments for every homeless person in America

False.

Also even if true 60% of them would be wrecked and uninhabitable within a year. SF itself spends more than a billion a year.

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We Can't Afford Healthcare for American Children Because We Need to Keep Bombing Everyone Else's for the Love of Jesus and Israel . . .

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/we-cant-afford-healthcare-for-american

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Ukrainian Jewish devil worshipping pedophile Marina Abramović, Jewish devil worshipping pedophile Ghislaine Maxwell, and the former mayors of San Francisco, are all devil worshipping sex weirdos . . . You can’t go anywhere in San Fransisco politics without endorsement of their satanic majesties.

Twitter Headquarters was on Market Street in the gayest most perverted city in California, San Franshitsco (sic) . . . it is Nasty Pelousy's and Gavin Newsome's festering fecal homeland, where Jew Howard Levey (a.k.a. Anton Lavey) started his gay Church of Satan.

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How San Francisco's Democrats made Jim Jones, and then made his memory vanish . . .

https://cwspangle.substack.com/i/138320669/how-san-franciscos-democrats-made-jim-jones-and-then-made-his-memory-vanish

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This is the biggest problem with mainstream news outlets. They pushed the party line over and above what was in any way objective from 2016-to 2020. Now, no one believes anything they say. And, believe it or not, that includes their liberal readers. Highly-educated liberals know when they are being sold a bill of goods. They just don't care when they feel it benefits them. Now that they know for a fact they were lied to during this time period (especially Covid), they distrust even their own papers. Credibility and trust are two things the government and the media really couldn't afford to lose. It would be nice to see some self-correction, but I won't hold my breath.

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It was and is impressive just how quickly Americans went from trusting to distrusting everything they heard from the news, science, college, courts, government. All they ever needed really was more voices telling them to not trust things.

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________________________________________________________________________________________________

PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocols of Zion: Protocol II – Economic Wars

❝The administrators, whom we shall choose from among the public, with strict regard to their capacities for servile obedience, will not be persons trained in the arts of government, and will therefore easily become pawns in our game in the hands of men of learning and genius who will be their advisers, specialists bred and reared from early childhood to rule the affairs of the whole world.❞

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocols-of-zion-protocol-ii-economic

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PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 23 – Instilling Obedience

❝That the peoples may become accustomed to obedience it is necessary to inculcate lessons of humility and therefore to reduce the production of articles of luxury. By this we shall improve morals which have been debased by emulation in the sphere of luxury.❞

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-23-instilling-obedience

________________________________________________________________________________________________

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PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol X – Preparing for Power . . . (((SARS-CoV2)))

❝. . . utterly exhaust humanity with dissention, hatred, struggle, envy and even by the use of torture, by starvation, by the inoculation of diseases. by want, so that the “Goyim” see no other issue than to take refuge in our complete sovereignty in money and in all else.❞

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-x-preparing-for-power-sars

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PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol XII – Control of the Press

❝Not a single announcement will reach the public without our control. Even now this is already being attained by us inasmuch as all news items are received by a few agencies, in whose offices they are focused from all parts of the world. These agencies will then be already entirely ours and will give publicity only to what we dictate to them.❞

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-xii-control-of-the-press

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PROTOCOLS OF THE MEETINGS OF THE LEARNED ELDERS OF ZION . . . Protocol No. 7 – World-Wide Wars

❝We must be in a position to respond to every act of opposition by war with the neighbors of that country which dares to oppose us: but if these neighbors should also venture to stand collectively together against us, then we must offer resistance by a universal war.❞

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/protocol-no-7-world-wide-wars

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Nate I love your writing, but this feels like a pretty big strawman.

Nobody claims that the incumbency advantage means “the incumbent always wins.” It just means “the incumbent performs better than a non-incumbent of the same party would.”

Now maybe that’s also no longer true (though I doubt it - just look at how much more eager candidates are to run for “open” seats vs challenging an incumbent). But simply showing the results of presidential elections doesn’t prove it.

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One would argue that Trump was a great case of incumbency advantage. Economy temporarily in the tank (mostly exogenous reasons but still), opposing candidate tailormade to appeal to swing voters, a lot of bad personal baggage... and he eventually outperformed polls and expectations up to an almost draw.

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The IMF Jews are in bed with the Turks, Saudis, and NATO, they were worried about a Trump audit of the Federal Reserve and about Trump and Putin teaming up to destroy them once and for all . . .

Trump was a vote for peace, and peace does not make money for the weapon industry. Trump wouldn’t give the deep state the shadow wars they wanted in Syria and Ukraine, so they rigged two US elections . . . and the first thing they did afterwards was send troops to Syria.

The pseudo secular media and their Zionist masters profit from destabilization. Retaining control of US foreign policy is what drives the neo-cons and Hillary’s flying monkeys . . . along with the millions Goldman Sachs and the Saudis have paid them.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/zelensky-biden-satanism-war-greed

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It also doesn’t explain how primary voters are also preferring the incumbent (or in the GOP’s case, the ex-incumbent) nominee by large margins, or how there’s enough hate from both sides for either party to radically change. During the Yellow Journalism Era (roughly from 1896-1932), there were elections where both parties put up progressive candidates (like in 1908), and both parties up up conservative candidates (like in 1924).

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One sometimes wonders why the European left gets along so well with Muslims. Why does an often overtly anti-religious movement take the side of a fierce religiosity that seems to oppose almost everything the left has always claimed to stand for? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Islam and Marxism have a common ideological root: Judaism.

Don Rumsfeld was right with the comment ‘Europe has shifted on its axis’, the wrong side won WW2, and it is becoming clearer with each and every day . . . What has NATO done to defend Europe? Absolutely nothing . . . My enemies are not in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, or in some ethereal Teutonic boogeyman, my enemies are in Washington, Brussels, and Tel Aviv.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/pardonne-mon-francais-va-te-faire

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I'm still curious whether the neuroticism is correlated with said characteristics or if they are being encouraged by a particular worldview (ie, does dwelling on identity politics incite neuroticism, or are neurotics more likely to dwell on identity). I suspect the only way to tell would be to see if folks with those same characteristics were more neurotic throughout history or if it is a new phenomenon.

I'll tell you what though: as a young conservative growing up in the early 2000s, I don't think I heard anyone EVER mention have a sense of general anxiety. Sure you'd be scared of a coming test/work thing, someone might be a worry-wart, etc., but I didn't have vast swaths of my friends-group running around with general anxiety. Was that because it was the 2000s, or was it because we were a more conservative culture?

Anyone here who's in their late 30s but grew up more liberal than me: was "anxiety" a thing in your friend-group?

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Maybe it has to do with 9/11?? Bush/Cheney would get approval rating bumps every terrorist attack and every major military “victory” like capturing Saddam. So you can look at a graph of Bush’s approval rating and Google the month and year of the spikes and sure enough a major global event will have taken place. Contrast that with Obama and only hit 56% approval when OBL was killed because the right wing echo chamber downplayed the event.

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Dec 11, 2023·edited Dec 11, 2023

I'm somewhere in my 40s. My friends/family are liberal but do not identify as lgbtq. We have a lot of depression and anxiety, and afaik, have always had issues. I would say the same about my teens and 20s friends.

Hard to say how new anything is, of course there are lots of stories of depression and anxiety in Victorian literature.

But I could buy that it's growing, and I vaguely suspect it's more to do with modern lifestyles than ideology. Not enough time spent hunting wooly mammoths or whatever.

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That's what I'm wondering! I would think it would be lifestyle related as well, but the links that Nate posted clearly show that it's at least correlated with liberal political markers. But then, a lot of my guesses toward the causes (social media/tiktok use, etc.) weren't around for our generation, so if it holds that far back then my guess is probably wrong (or at least not sufficient to explain the correlation).

It's probably important to clarify in the research whether depression and anxiety are different--I didn't see whether depression has any correlation or if that's evenly spread across demographics, or if it's more conservative, etc.

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Dec 11, 2023·edited Dec 11, 2023

Maybe, there's a whole lot of other things I associate with politics. Family size, faith, mental labor, reading, tech usage, city/rural, race, age/generation, gender, sexuality, divergent views, etc.

Looking at the link, the difference before 2012 looks pretty smallish. And depression started growing steadily for everyone since then, which sure could be a sign of social media adoption.

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Yeah. Interestingly, it seems from the slowboring quoted report that depression has, at least as far back as 2005, tended to affect liberals more often, and that increase holds during the big tick upward in 2014, but all four demographic slices were heavily pushed upward after that point (social media?), although it started hitting liberal girls much earlier.

If the social-media theory is right, it could be because they're early adopters.

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In what the late Saddam Hussein once dubbed “the great Satan,” roughly two-thirds of the United States enlisted military corps is white . . .

The fat, bulbous U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once confirmed in a 93-2 vote of the U.S. Senate, immediately embarked on a whirlwind media tour of duty, telling the pseudo-secular sycophants in the state-controlled tabloid press and state-controlled television talk show circuit about how the U.S. Army is full of bad racist white men.

And now the U.S. Army is doing ads begging for more young white males? What happened?

Even with a full-on declaration of war from Congress, and even if Gavin Newsome could be cheated into the Oval Office by ZOG somehow, with Globohomo diversity brigades going door-to-door looking to impress American children into military service, they will be met with armed, well-trained opposition, the invasion at the Southern border is going full tilt, and the drugs are flowing in like never before . . .

People are done fighting wars for these psychotic kikesucking Zionist ass-whores . . . With the borders of Europe and the USA wide open, civil warfare within the USA, Britain, and most of Europe is a certainty if foreign wars are initiated. Nobody is going to fight a war for Biden, he is dumber than Bush . . . Nobody is going to fight a war for that kikesucking Zionist ass-whore Nikki Haley, and I mean nobody.

Get ready for it . . . the fat old devil worshipping fags on Capitol Hill, on Wall Street, in Whitehall, and in Brussels are in no shape to fight a war themselves, and most Americans are armed to the teeth with their own guns . . .

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/satanism-is-a-jewish-cult

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My circle had people who were experiencing anxiety and had no words for it, which I think is an interesting middle ground to what you are describing. No one was saying “I have anxiety” but I can think of several of them that were, nonetheless, feeling anxious. Most of these people would now (in their late 30s) use the term to describe themselves.

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That is interesting. Of course both your and my experiences are only anecdotal evidence, but they point to something that sounds possibly generally true but that was maybe unrecognized (undiagnosed?) until more recently.

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I voted for Ron DeSantis to be governor of Florida, not ambassador to Israel . . .

The recently ousted Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, who took at least a dozen votes to get elected speaker, traveled to Israel immediately upon his election, declaring to the Israeli Knesset that the USA is steadfastly committed to supporting Ukraine in their war against Russia.

Was Kevin McCarthy trying to be speaker of the Israeli Knesset too?

It has become so painfully obvious, especially where you have someone like Nikki Haley wagging her finger and shouting down Vivek Ramaswamy in a presidential debate on live national television when the questions of this Ukrainian war against Russia and any mention of Israel are concerned, that the United States government has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the American Israeli Political Action Committee.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/oh-how-fond-they-are-of-the-book

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Alternative theory: imagine that candidate vote share is a product of the partisan environment of the district and relative "candidate quality". Candidate quality includes likability, scandals or lack thereof, willingness to abandon unpopular national party positions, ability to secure money for local alfalfa farmers etc. Incumbent advantage could be mostly a product of candidate quality: the fact that the guy got elected in the first place is a positive indicator of candidate quality.

The rising partisanship we've seen over the last twenty years has meant that candidate quality matters less (e.g. I will vote Democrat unless the Democrat in my district kills someone with an axe) and since most of incumbent advantage is a secondary correlate of candidate quality, incumbent advantage has diminished.

Another implication: unpopular figures are bad not because they lose their own districts (MTG will never lose that part of Georgia for example) but because they cause occasional voters across the country to turn against your party.

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As if people in California wouldn’t elect an axe murderer before they’d elect a Republican. 😂

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It's not that extreme. It depends what type of axe.

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Or they would elect and reelect a Terminator before they elected a Democrat.

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That was a particular moment, against a widely-considered-corrupt democrat, with a very purple republican.

Who ended up really abusing his power there at the end.

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Seen more as incompetent than corrupt, I'd say.

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Yes, I think you're right. Better word.

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I remember Democrats screeching in 2019 about nonsense like MUH MULTIPLE OBS MUH INCOME INSEEEQUALITY!!! When wage growth was high, inflation was non-existent, and the majority of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the US economy, now the same deranged liberals try and defend Biden with 33% inflation since 2021? with high gas prices ever increasing food prices and rent? with a mortgage rate hike, making buying a new house completely unaffordable? Democrats are the biggest hypocrites on the planet; they have no actual policies on the economy. It's "D" man, good, "R" man, baad.

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I think that there’s one of two simple answers: (1) voters in the world today are generally more unhappy*, and thus want change; or (2) voters in the world today are generally more happy**, and thus want change.

*blame climate change, algorithms, inequality, or anything else neither incumbents or successful challengers have done much about for 40+ years

**unhappy, but definitely with more access to more stable, secure jobs, tech, better health, ie all the benefits of progress, including unprecedented optionality, which can be maddening and can condition us to always seek change, including on Election Day

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One sometimes wonders why the European left gets along so well with Muslims. Why does an often overtly anti-religious movement take the side of a fierce religiosity that seems to oppose almost everything the left has always claimed to stand for? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Islam and Marxism have a common ideological root: Judaism.

Don Rumsfeld was right with the comment ‘Europe has shifted on its axis’, the wrong side won WW2, and it is becoming clearer with each and every day . . . What has NATO done to defend Europe? Absolutely nothing . . . My enemies are not in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, or in some ethereal Teutonic boogeyman, my enemies are in Washington, Brussels, and Tel Aviv.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/pardonne-mon-francais-va-te-faire

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Nate, wouldn't the overall negativity you write about indicate a defeat for Trump in 2024 ? Isn't he despised more than Biden ? If young people get most of their news from social media and combine that will their purported concerns about actual policy [abortion, racial justice, climate change] AND if they actually vote in larger numbers than they have in the past...won't all this negativity result in a postive outcome ? [maga defeat].

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I think the small sample size for these data pretty much limits this discussion and conclusion. Where we saw strong incumbent performance, we had very strong/popular candidates, and when we had weak POTUS candidates, we saw poorer incumbent performance.

You just can’t compare Reagan, Obama and even B Clinton to the other incumbents who ran in recent decades. Their skill and popularity (not to mention the 3d party stuff for BC elections) really destroys this theory.

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PS, good to see my eight grade social studies teacher had better images of what yellow journalism was than AI

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One sometimes wonders why the European left gets along so well with Muslims. Why does an often overtly anti-religious movement take the side of a fierce religiosity that seems to oppose almost everything the left has always claimed to stand for? Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Islam and Marxism have a common ideological root: Judaism.

Don Rumsfeld was right with the comment ‘Europe has shifted on its axis’, the wrong side won WW2, and it is becoming clearer with each and every day . . . What has NATO done to defend Europe? Absolutely nothing . . . My enemies are not in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, or in some ethereal Teutonic boogeyman, my enemies are in Washington, Brussels, and Tel Aviv.

https://cwspangle.substack.com/p/pardonne-mon-francais-va-te-faire

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I found this from another post, but this isn't a trend I knew about before. Is this widely reported elsewhere or did I just miss it?

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Nate seems to only engage with vibeseccion discourse through people like Will Stancil. Even though I’m sure he’s aware people like Claudia Sahm have been writing about this for months. It’s not just Dem cheerleaders on Twitter

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Isn’t it consistent for our friend Illway Ancilstay to be a polemicist on other issues? He believes in the power of media to control opinion and wants it to push opinion in his preferred direction.

He believes it too strongly though: while media is powerful, I don’t think it can convince anyone of anything at any time in any context, the way he seems to claim.

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The right wing echo chamber combined with a tribal mentality can “convince” people of many things for a little while. So in 2000 the right wing echo chamber wasn’t that powerful but it convinced Republicans that Elian Gonzalez should remain with his American kidnappers instead of the judicial system most likely sending him back to his father. And then a few years later after the right wing echo chamber grew much more powerful it convinced people that invading Iraq was necessary in the aftermath of 9/11. So tribalism is a big factor because on some level the people consuming propaganda derive satisfaction from their tribe winning elections.

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Footnote 3 😵 Nate you're hilarious.

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