The moderates finally fought back against the Freedom Caucus. But how to solve for the equilibrium isn't so clear.
When I say "more posts like this", I do not mean less Nate content. Nate content is great. I am happy to pay for it and derive great value from it. That said,
More posts like this!
10/10, no notes
Great piece. I learned a lot.
The most obvious long-term fix is to only allow motions to vacate that come with a new nominee for Speaker. You can vacate the chair, but only if it's simultaneously filled with someone else.
Advantages the old coalition and the status quo, but avoids chaos, and right now that looks like a good deal.
Such excellent explanation. I genuinely learned a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if they deadlock, and McHenry is granted more authority.
Truly fantastic post
That scatter plot of the first Jordan vote is a thing of beauty. Great post!
Dam Matt, well said.
Let’s not kid ourselves that any moderate Republican will get elected speaker. It’s going to be another Trumpist, just one that doesn’t have as many enemies as the Ohio State Sgt Shultz. Someone like Stephanik, maybe.
This is what happens when loose campaign laws and ethics rules meets modern social media. You have too many congresspeople who have no intention or desire to actually govern. It’s all about branding, content, and fundraising.
How is empowering McHenry different than electing a speaker? Isn’t that not actually building a procedural coalition? Can’t he be ousted as well if some are unhappy with him?
Fascinating and complex. The old Nate 538 we need and love
Given the game theory described here, I'm not sure why the Democrats didn't just vote 'present' to the resolution to vacate the Speaker's office? Wouldn't that have left McCarthy as a corpse hanging in the breeze, with the Republicans unable to replace him yet unwilling to cut him down?
If it was always strongly in their interest to vote the Speaker out, why didn't they propose the resolution to vacate at some point earlier themselves, to try to tempt the HFC faction into it?
If people could be realistic a representative like Julia Letlow who is pro-vaccine because her husband died from Covid and will never amount to anything in the GOP would cut a deal with a few Republicans and Democrats and become Speaker. She is educated and can’t really believe the BS her husband pretended to believe and so she could actually just pass single issue bills until all of our problems are solved.
Question for Matt:
There was a lot of criticism last fall that Pelosi did not agree to a longer term debt ceiling deal. It was hard to understand why to push this into 2023. Is it possible that Pelosi saw that it would fracture the Republican Party, thus forcing them to some eventually reckoning?
Of the many things that have come out of this, one is that her handling of the Democratic factions has become that much more impressive.
Some members haven’t got the memo yet, but this is now the America First party. Eventually they will once they lose their reelection primary. Win win as you said.
I think the mchenry solution
1. Solves everything solvable in this session
2. Might be implemented by the speaker advancing a popular bill