The game theory of replacing Graham Platner
20 thoughts on who really has the leverage in Maine — and what Democrats should do next.
UPDATE: Platner has suspended his campaign, but in his announcement, blamed “large forces [who] were working against [him] personally” for the various allegations against him, saying “the things that have been claimed did not happen … it’s not real.”
I view this announcement as being somewhat bearish for Democrats. Many voters will remain highly loyal to Platner; he certainly has a lot of charisma, and if they believe the allegations against him are part of a vast conspiracy, they might not vote for his replacement.
Personally, I find the allegations against Platner highly credible, and I think he and his campaign have consistently struggled with the truth. There’s very little that I find reliable about Platner or his backstory.
However, among the many risks of investing your political capital in sketchy people is that they’ll burn their bridges on their way out. Platner is trying to save face. His ostensible justification for leaving the race — that he’ll be denied access to tools like voter data and “all of the things that any campaign needs on the basic level simply to function” — is ironic given how little faith he has in the Democratic establishment and how much he fashions himself as the leader of a people-powered movement.
Democrats will have until 5 p.m. on July 27 to name Platner’s replacement.
This newsletter was originally published early Wednesday afternoon before Planter dropped out. It consists of 20 takes about the process for replacing Platner and how much leverage he might or might not have. Everything after this gray box is preserved verbatim from the original column posted earlier today. Our philosophy at Silver Bulletin is to reveal our thinking in real time as a sort of “time capsule” rather than make post-facto changes to stories, and most of it should remain highly relevant in considering the aftermath of all of this. -Nate Silver
You can say something like “Graham Platner, who has credibly been accused of sexual assault, doesn’t have any right to dictate terms”. But he won the party nomination. It’s his choice whether to vacate that nomination. Under Maine law, the practical rule is: Platner must withdraw by July 13 for Democrats to make a normal replacement nomination. After that, a replaceable vacancy generally requires death or catastrophic incapacitating illness or injury.1 As we’ll get to, Platner doesn’t have as much leverage as he thinks he does, but he does have some.
One theory of the case I’ve heard on Twitter is that if Platner remains on the ballot, Democrats will be forced to rally behind him. But as cynical as I sometimes am about the Democratic Party, I tend to doubt it’s that simple. We haven’t seen any post-sexual-assault-allegation polling yet, but if Platner is behind Collins by 10 points or something, the correct “play” is to write the race off and focus your resources on Texas or Iowa or whatever, rather than further undermining the party brand by associating it with a candidate whom almost every Democrat has now denounced as being unfit for the ballot. And while a Senate seat is very important, it isn’t as existential as a presidential race.
The write-in deadline in Maine isn’t until Aug. 25. So what the state party could say is, “We’re going to choose a different nominee and will back them in an extremely well-organized write-in campaign even if Platner refuses to vacate the Democratic Party ballot line.” The state party has already taken a fairly aggressive posture toward Platner, but pre-committing to this write-in process would more tangibly reduce Platner’s leverage and is the right move from a game-theory standpoint. While a write-in campaign might seem like an uphill battle that requires extra effort from voters, it worked for Lisa Murkowski in Alaska in 2010, a state with some similarities to Maine.2
Wouldn’t that lead to an outcome like: Collins 47 percent, write-in Democrat 33 percent, Platner 20 percent, meaning that this would be tantamount to mutually assured destruction? No, because Maine uses ranked-choice voting. In principle, voters loyal to Platner could list him as their first choice and the write-in as their second choice ahead of Collins. In practice, there are some issues, though. In the Maine gubernatorial primary last month, which went to RCV, about 10 percent of the votes were essentially tossed out because voters did not rank enough candidates.3 Platner voters could also refuse to list the write-in Democrat on their ballot out of spite.
So really, whether he remains on the ballot or not, most of Platner’s leverage comes from his voters. There’s sure to be some voters who remain fiercely loyal to him; partisanship is a hell of a drug. You don’t want those voters to feel aggrieved, as though their guy was railroaded out, especially if Platner sends signals to that effect.
While many people are drawing comparisons to Democrats’ decision to force out Joe Biden in 2024, there are some important differences. Platner isn’t nearly as much of a loyal party soldier. But more importantly, Platner won a highly competitive primary, whereas Biden won an effectively uncontested one. True, Janet Mills eventually dropped out4, but she did so because she was way behind in the polls, out of resources, and going to lose. Beating a sitting governor is a lot harder than beating Marianne Williamson in a race where the Democratic Party put a heavy finger on the scale for Biden.5
The comments section might not like this take, but I think it’s not inherently unreasonable for the Maine Democratic Party to respect the results of that primary by choosing another nominee who, like Platner, is more in the populist/progressive tradition.
Not only is this more democratic, but it also prevents those voters from feeling aggrieved. And while I’m generally of the view that moderate candidates overperform left-wing or right-wing ones — Collins is a good example of this, in fact — Maine has been a bit unusual in being willing to tolerate a wide variety of ideological options, from progressive fighters like Platner (who was quite popular before the scandals and probably on track to win in November) to Collins to the Trumpist former governor Paul LePage.
The best way to give voters some say, though, would be to hold a straw poll or a series of state caucuses or conventions, as Maine Democrats are reportedly strongly considering. Sure, such a vote would probably be dominated by “party activist types”, with much lower turnout than a “real” primary, but you want to keep your most engaged voters happy6 — and it’s still better than some sort of committee.
Those nine points cover my basic theory of the case, but let me take an even deeper dive into the strategy and the long-term implications for paid subscribers.