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Edmund  Nelson's avatar

It's frustrating because Rassmussen's strong and consistent house effects make it more and not less useful. Pollsters with consistent house effects can show what the spread of the election is most likely to be. If you have a pollster that almost always overestimates R turnout and one that almost always overestimates D turnout then you have a better idea than if you had 2 pollsters who were individually more accurate but had errors that were random.

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Michael Carrasco's avatar

People are going to really miss Nate's approach to this problem. It's going to get very ugly if this is the kind of approach ABC is going to be taking. I can only hope the model (and maybe Fivey?) can make it out and be somewhere else in 2024.

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