Hi Nate, do you plan to publish each country's stage of elimination probabilities on a daily basis during the World Cup? We have developed a game (SoccerShares.nl) that builds on such probabilities and I would much rather use PELE results as input instead of bookmaker quotes.
In an era of everything LLMs/AI/ML, God is it nice to read through methodology that is, at its core, theory motivating layers of "classical" statistical methods. Love it.
Though I gotta admit, I raised an eyebrow at the part about using Claude to impute the values for missing GDP. Does this mean having Claude write the imputation code, or just feeding Claude the GDP data and having it spit out a spreadsheet? Because the former seems reasonable, while the latter feels shaky and non-deterministic. How do you replicate that in the future when Anthropic retires 4.6?
Hi Nate, do you plan to publish each country's stage of elimination probabilities on a daily basis during the World Cup? We have developed a game (SoccerShares.nl) that builds on such probabilities and I would much rather use PELE results as input instead of bookmaker quotes.
In an era of everything LLMs/AI/ML, God is it nice to read through methodology that is, at its core, theory motivating layers of "classical" statistical methods. Love it.
Though I gotta admit, I raised an eyebrow at the part about using Claude to impute the values for missing GDP. Does this mean having Claude write the imputation code, or just feeding Claude the GDP data and having it spit out a spreadsheet? Because the former seems reasonable, while the latter feels shaky and non-deterministic. How do you replicate that in the future when Anthropic retires 4.6?
Do you plan in the future to use transfermarkt injury data to automatically update your rosters ? I remember your previous models did that.