I have two grandparents with akzheimers and neither Biden nor Trump seem like they have it. Are they less sharp than they were when they were younger? Yes, yes they are and that concerns me. Neither was the most brilliant man in their youth. Which is not to say either is dumb, but that I do not think either rose to the level of brilliance that George HW Bush did, Barack Obama did (and does), or heck that even Bill Clinton did. But both are effective politicians.
Biden is superb at relationships, coalition building and negotiation. Biden has accomplished more in his one term in a tight Congress than basically any reasonable parallel. No he isn’t FDR or LBJ, but he has done almost as much as Obama and had more FO success.
Trump is good at demagoguery and superb and rallying his base, and painting his enemies as buffoons and villains. He is not great at the job, but has some useful skills to get there.
Biden, at 80, is still doing a good job. Trump, at 74, was incompetent and also nearly traitorous.
The guy you call incompetent has a majority of the country approving of the job he did as President. Good luck running against that in 24. By the way, it will be the 'are you better off than four years ago?' election, and the overwhelming majority say No, they are not better off. Meanwhile, the current guy has the worst approval rating in history, despite 24/7 media propaganda trying to brainwash the population into supporting him. The entire media complex was trying to convince voters in 2019 that 'the economy is bad; don't look at your wallet or your rent or your savings.' Now the entire media complex is doing the polar opposite: 'the economy is good; ignore your empty wallet, rising rent, and smaller and smaller grocery list as the prices continue rising.
You're only "not better off" if you are willingly ignoring reality or watching too much Fox News. We got past the pandemic. We are re-establishing alliances. We basically defeated Russia completely without wasting a single American soldier's life. We got out of Afghanistan. We passed laws to bring semi-conductor manufacturing to America. We passed legislation to combat inflation. Biden has regained all of the jobs that Trump managed to destroy due to his absolutely idiotic handling of COVID.
What on earth are you talking about? How are you worse off? If you start complaining about grocery prices I will let you know that prices have been increasing for groceries for the past 60 years or more. So, it's not a legitimate argument.
I swear MAGAs just want the world to be burning so that they can feel good about pissing off everyone else. What a bunch of hateful morons.
Most people have eyes. Biden can’t speak coherently without a teleprompter, notes, or a planted question from the bootlicking media. Inflation is up 30% since he took office for staples like energy and eggs, but he has taken more vacation than any president.
$100 billion for Ukraine while our cities deteriorate and the border is swamped by “migrants” seeking handouts. Remember when Biden said if you get the jab you won’t get covid? Eisenhower warned us about the MIC and scientific technical elite who run the Biden regime: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-deliver-a-farewell-address-eisenhower
I don’t know how Trumpists deal with the cognitive dissonance of an infirm Biden who can’t speak without a teleprompter but who is also the mastermind of a criminal empire, who has weaponized the entire Justice Department, and who outmaneuvered the GOP on the debt ceiling.
I’m not part of any resistance and I’m not “simping”for anyone you demagogue fellating twit. Im just an old centrist who views politicians as necessary evils and who doesn’t fall for the Trumperverse bullshit about multi millionaires and billionaires who attend Ivy League universities being anti-elite “outsiders.”
Fox News and Trump both spread dishonest rightwing propaganda, just like you. You are regurgitating right wing billionaire talking points. You need cope with the fact Trump is a liar, loser, groomer, bigot and failure who lost to Biden by millions of votes and will again.
Damn, this 'white supremacist' sure seems to convince a lot of Blacks and Hispanics to vote for him. So much so that he's set to make Biden the worst minority vote share Democrat since 1984, assuming Biden wins 100% of minority undecided voters, assuming The New York Times isn't going to overestimate Biden again like they did in 2020.
A few misguided sellout Jews supported Hitler too. The fact is Black and Hispanic voters overwhelmingly prefer Biden to fat, multiply-indicted drama queen and groomer Trump, and it's not even close.
All Biden has to do to win re-election is hang onto Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan (all have Democratic governors, secretaries of state, and senators) and then one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or Georgia (all have two Democratic senators).
The Deep State. Right. Just the latest iteration of conspiracy stupidity, with as much real world validity as the satanic daycare pizza restaurants. Before the Deep State, it was the UN New World Order and their evil smart thermostats. Before that it was the communists. Before that it was the Jews. Before that it was the Catholics.
Yuri, the difference with DK here is that he’s actually in his real TDS, and while denying it exists, adopts it’s namesake with the “Hunter Derangement Syndrome”. Cult behavior.
So, no. You simply cannot reason with these people.
Sad was Drama Queen Donnie leaving office with the worst jobs record in history, then inciting his MAGA terrorists to attack the Capitol with sore loser election lies that were rejected by Trump Republican election officials and laughed out of court by Trump judges.
Imagine being so deep in the MAGA extremist cult you think anyone outside it takes seriously phony lectures about "reason" from supporters of Trump, an obese, old, multiply-indicted Putin-puppet traitor who repeatedly made gross comments wanting to bed his own daughter. Yuck.
The term Clinton Derangement Syndrome began in the 90s. TDS was adopted from that. Cope more.
He's referring to all three debates, where Biden wipe the floor with trump. But whatever desperate excuses you need to come up with to feed your Trump sycophancy and Hunter Derangement Syndrome.
Still mad you can't get voters to care more about Hunter's dic pics than Trump's forced birth, book banning fascism, huh?
Substack is filled with awful people like the commenter you are replying to. Taibbi and Berenson and all of the anti-vaxxers have set up shop at Substack and attracted followers that are now their minions. Substack is a steaming pile of manure and the disinformation disseminated via Substack has killed a lot more Americans than Osama Bin Laden.
Just say you want Trump Republican white supremacy, MAGA extremism, corporate welfare, forced birth, book banning, and Putin-puppetry back in power, Adolf.
Damn, he must have been the worst puppet in the universe. He gave missiles to Ukraine and prevented any Russian aggression. I guess Putin isn't allowing Blumpf to win again after that. He is doing way better under Biden, who allowed him to take a huge chunk of Ukraine, and he did pretty good under Obama, who allowed him to take Crimea.
Wrong. Under Traitor Trump, Putin was getting what he wanted in Ukraine at no cost to Russia, while Trump tried to breakup and disarm NATO.
Under Treason Trump, Putin quietly took more and more Ukrainian territory in Donbas, with no response from Ukraine's allies. Then Trump was impeached for helping Putin and trying to withhold weapons from Ukraine with bribery.
Putin got scared and tried to hurry and take Kyiv after Trump lost, because he knew Biden would arm Ukraine. And Putin failed because Biden reunited NATO, unlike Trump who helped Putin meddle in the 2016 election, sold out Europe to Putin, wrote love letters to communist North Korea, publicly sided with Putin over US intel, took a $2 billion blood money Saudi bribe, praised Putin after Russia tacked Kyiv, stole nuclear secrets, incited the deadly Jan. 6 terror attack, and trashed fallen US soldiers.
Keep trying to tell the voters "No you are wrong we the liberal experts say the economy is great don't look at your empty wallet don't look at your rent bill" such a good strategy i'm sure it will work great for you
Democrats are now outperforming 2020 results by 10 points in recent special elections because Biden reversed the mass death and record job loss left by Trump Republican incompetence, extremism, and corporate welfare.
And over in realityland Democrats are outperforming their 2020 results by 10-points in recent special election results. Because, unlike Putin-puppet MAGA extremists, Americans have brains.
Americans know a) Biden is not responsible for worldwide higher post-pandemic inflation and b) 3% of our total defense budget to a democratic European ally to cripple Putin and deter economically-flailing China is money well spent.
Since Biden took office, he reversed Crooked Trump's mass death and record job loss by containing COVID and monkeypox, ending the endless Afghan war, and enacting historic investments in middle and working class manufacturing, infrastructure, and clean energy. That's why Biden and Democrats built the world's strongest post-COVID economy, while Russia and China flail.
But don't let facts get in the way of your angry, bitter Fox News negativity spewed to help elect multiply-indicted groomer Trump, a thug who wants to sleep with his own daughter.
Sorry you're mad Republicans have nothing to offer but hate, lies, extremism, book banning, Jan 6. insurrection, forced birth, climate denial, mass shootings, Hunter Derangement Syndrome, and Trump's criminality.
Imagine cut pasting CIA talking points and pretending it’s your own opinion. NPCs a fascinating to study. Does this person think he’s “doing his own research” and “forming his own opinion” when he mindlessly regurgitates regime propaganda? I bet you he does.
Imagine actually being this person. How embarrassing
You describe yourself as a "Domestic Terrorist". I wonder if anyone has ever reported you to the FBI to be put on a watchlist because you certainly need to be on one.
Typical low IQ MAGA extremist: can't refute the points about Biden's accomplishments and Trump's failure, so you just immediately resort to personal attacks and cut-and-paste Fox News talking points, like the brainead child you are.
Imagine thinking I need the approval of an angry, bitter, patholgical lying Putin troll simping for Trump Republican forced birth, book banning, insurrection, and white supremacy.
Radical right MAGA extremist Putin-puppet trolls are very angry more and more voters are rejecting their hateful, bitter, uninspiring Republican agenda of forced birth, book banning, climate denial, racism, gay bashing, welfare for billionaires, Jan. 6 insurrection, Trump criminality, mass shootings, and Hunter dic pics. Imagine a whole political party with nothing positive to offer American, just hatred of Biden and simping for fat, old, multiply-indicted Putin-puppet Trump. Sad!
Unfortunately, I don't think special elections will have much predictive power for 2024. The types of voters that tend to vote in low-turnout special elections are more Democratic now. If Trump is the nominee, his supporters will turn out; we just have to persuade the persuadeables and to out-vote them
Special election results before 2018, 2020, and 2022 were pretty predictive. Still, as you say, no one should get complacent. It's still going to be a close election and a battle of turnout.
"It's going to be a close election" Lol not a chance every swing state will be R+5 minimum the fact you TDS suffering loons are saying it will be close should tell you everything you need to know about the state of the race
Trump 2-3 point popular vote victory and easy landslide in the electoral college
Lol Translation: you live in a rightwing MAGA extremist bubble and don't know Democrats are already outperforming their 2020 election results by 10-points in recent special elections.
Only Hunter Derangement Syndrome suffering loons think multiply-indicted criminal Trump is going to flip the same voters who already rejected his lies, extremism, and hate in 2020.
All Biden has to do to win re-election is hang onto Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan (all have Democratic governors, secretaries of state, and senators) and then one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or Georgia (all have two Democratic senators).
Good luck! 😂 Bookmarked to come back and laugh at you next year after Trump loses. Again lol
Yuri, I'm guessing you wouldn't be wild about a 45 year old Biden either. Given your views, I'd expect you to be very happy that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
Do you seriously think Eisenhower would have given the time of day to Trump, a man who announced before even the 2016 election he won't accept the result unless he wins? Such statements should disqualify him from office instantly.
I wonder how much of the concern about Biden would be alleviated if he had a different Vice President. I understand that, for political reasons, he cannot replace Harris. And of course his age would be an issue no matter what. But if she had better favorables, it might be easier for skeptical Dems and hesitant independents to assuage their worries by saying to themselves, "well, if Biden dies, we are in good or possibly even better hands." Unfortunately, I don't think many people beyond the fervent Dem base feels that way about the ticket. It also makes me wonder if/when we've ever had a VP who was notably more popular than their President.
On a related note, I'm pretty meh about Biden running but am relieved not to have to suffer through the identity politics fights that would ensue in a Dem primary with Harris as an obvious frontrunner. That would be yet another exhausting line of discourse.
If Harris had higher favorables, would Biden even be running for a second term? My sense (based, I have to admit, on vibes, not evidence) is that Biden is running, in part, because he thinks that Harris couldn't be denied the nomination if he stepped down and that she would lose to Trump.
Yeah, that's a great point. Part of me says that he would still run because of ego and whatnot -- it's hard to give up that power. But if he truly saw a way to be feted as both a successful "turnaround" one-term President and the generous, self-sacrificing bridge to the next generation, he would do it (and Jill would encourage him to).
I also think a lot about the underrated possibility of Biden dying *before* the election and Kamala losing.
Her popularity is surprisingly soft among Black voters, given she is the first woman of African descent to become Vice President. Her favorability among Black voters is only 70% in recent YouGov polling, compared to Biden's 78%, or Barack Obama's 86% or higher at the end of his term in office. And that's setting aside her terrible polling among other groups, earning only a 36% favorability among White voters and an even worse 35% favorability among Hispanics. It's doubtful she could even win a national Democratic primary with those numbers, let alone a general election, which is I believe the point Brian was trying to make
1. I don't see a lot of evidence that she is popular with black voters in some outsized way relative to Biden. If she were, I think you'd see that reflected in the culture more broadly outside of the Joy Reid demographic of PMC black women.
2. More to the point, the black vote is, as we all know, a reliable part of the base. So whether Kamala or someone else were the VP, those people would largely support Biden no matter who the VP was.
3. Where there are potential turnout/enthusiasm problems among blacks, I believe it's more among black *men* and among disaffected younger voters, neither of which are exactly electrified by Kamala.
Adding “aging expert” really gives away the game here when it comes to the journalist engaging in the time-honored tradition of smuggling in one’s own opinion via public-health professor quotes.
“This election is probably going to be close, and Trump winning might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away.”
I find it interesting that you don’t seem to allow for the possibility or impact of Trump having a McConnell moment. And frankly that’s probably because the MAGA maniacs would vote for Trump regardless, which is pretty telling.
But let’s not forget Trump’s brain seems pretty addled - remember “person, woman, man, woman, camera, TV”?! - and IMO it’s just as likely he has some sort of speaking issue as Biden.
"And frankly that’s probably because the MAGA maniacs would vote for Trump regardless, which is pretty telling."
Honestly, this cuts both ways. Fetterman was elected Senator despite a level of disability that ought to have disqualified him. I mean I get, I would have voted for Fetterman too. To quote a guy on Twitter "would you rather vote for someone who struggles to articulate reasonable ideas or someone who clearly articulates terrible ideas". You can argue that voters are making the correct calculation that ideology is more important than personality. At the same time, personality matters, Trump's horrible personality being the cause of January 6. All I can say that in theory primary elections are a good tool to weed out impaired/corrupt/evil politicians, but that doesn't seem to be happening as much as it should.
This is a good point - but then why would/should voters (at least in Nate’s opinion) be willing to punish Biden for a “McConnell moment” any more than they’d punish Trump for it? Especially when the public seems to side more with Biden than Trump on ideology?
That's a good point too. I think Nate's point is that even a percentage point or two of "punishment" could make a difference in a close election. It could work both ways, but you are probably right that the MAGA crowd would punish Trump less because they are basically immune to criticisms of him at this point.
The bigger issue is that not just that this will have an effect at the polls but that it will actually lead to bad governance. The Feinstein situation is pretty bad, and I think Giuliani has undergone mental deterioration. I can't believe this was the same guy who prosecuted the Mafia Commission Trial and served two popular terms as NYC mayor. Some old people, even relatively cogent ones, become bad at understanding context and information sources which is why they get scammed or fall down Q rabbit holes or send me bizarre chain e-mails. I think that's what's happened to him. I think whatever happens Biden will remain a chill guy who is surrounded by nice enough advisors, but it's reasonable to worry.
To your question, Andrew: Democrats don’t have an 11th-commandment style cultural norm that would protect Biden if he blue screens. On top of that, he doesn’t have any identity or historical markers that fit with Democratic PR / leeway, his son is on trial, and the party has a *ton* of people who would love an opportunity to step up, even if they’d lose to Trump.
Because we haven't seen Trump struggle in the same ways Biden does, calling out for people who recently died, constantly getting lost on stage, shaking hands with ghosts.
Or describing America as a nation with the single word, "Asufutimaehaehfutbw"
“The age of Biden and Trump during their potential second terms corresponds to *infection* point at which the risk of death begins to increase meaningly every year.”
While age is a factor, so is health status. Biden exercises, watches his diet, and remains active aand lucid. Trump is grossly overweight, has speech (mental) impairment that means he is unable to complete a sentence and jumps (within a single sentence) to other related and unrelated topics, frequently losing focus on what he began to talk about. He doesn't exercise (golf, yes, but not walking - he uses a cart) frequently eats fast food, who knows how many soda's (sugar or sugar substitutes) he downs daily, and he is under significant stress because his former charisma is no longer working on keeping out of trouble. I'd bet on Biden living longer than Trump.
*That* Biden turned out to be a damn fine President.
OK, it turns out we were wrong to be concerned about his age four years ago. But *this* time we're right to be worried, dammit!
Yes, he's old. Bad things may happen to him due to his advanced age. But he's not leaving the ticket, the ensuing chaos if he did at this point would be far worse for the Democrats and the country, and his track record shows no evidence that his age has negatively affected his performance as President.
So go ahead everyone. Bitch about "Biden's too old!" until you get it out of your system. And then maybe we can focus on all the other issues and concerns at stake next year.
I'm biased, but I mean..isn't 83 and in shape (eating right and exercising daily etc.), more likely to live longer than being 80 and probably 80 pounds overweight and eating garbage food? Agree that Biden has lost a few miles per hour off his fastball, but by all counts he seems to grasp issues very well, and has surrounded himself with a highly competent cabinet.
Here's the question I need addressed: How many people would change their vote/not vote based on Biden's age?
If I got asked if he's too old, I'd answer yes. But if the follow-up question was, would that make you less likely to vote for him, I'd answer emphatically no. I just can't see any meaningfully amount of people saying, "I think Biden is too old, so I'm going to vote for the other guy."
So it's not that I don't think his age is an issue, I just think it's not going to meaningfully affect the election, so how much effort should I invest in worrying about it?
Pollster: Do you have concerns about Biden’s age as a candidate in 2024?
Me: Yes.
Pollster: Does Biden’s age make it less likely you will vote for him in 2024?
Me: I would vote for Hunter Biden’s Laptop before I would vote for any of the current crop of authoritarian mouth breathers who have a statistically significant chance of winning the GOP nomination. Is that option available on your polling sheet?
Would you rather vote for a mentally retarded man who shares your political opinions, or a whip smart double Nazi fascist who also is somehow a communist and wants to forcibly trans all children?
The major job of the president is to employ the people who run the government. This puts policies at the forefront of my vote and I suspect this is true for the people voting for Trump also.
Evidence: A guy who brags about sexually assaulting women, disrespects Goldstar families and a war hero in his own party got the vast majority of the support from people who would have voted with him just because of his party. I don't blame them I would do the same because that's what makes the biggest difference in our lives.
Agree with you broadly and the mortality stats here are quite helpful. On the narrow point of Biden being a favorite because economic conditions are improving, I mostly agree and I would frame it he’s a favorite because incumbent parties tend to win outside of recessions, and the odds of a recession are low. But when I look at prediction market pricing on both a recession and dems winning election, I think (small) markets tend to disagree with us, putting odds of both at around 50%, which is also worth noting. More detail on that market pricing in my latest post on my own stack.
I’m a bit more sanguine on the 2024 recession odds than political prediction markets, and that in turn makes me a bit more optimistic on Biden’s re-election odds than current betting market prices. Some thoughts in link above about recession odds but more generally how to use market pricing to derive implied probability of events.
The idea that Republicans are diligently parsing the actuarial data around aging curves and that is what’s driving their nonchalance about Trump’s age, while screaming about Biden’s, rather than partisanship is so laughable.
> Among Republicans, however, 89 percent say that Biden is too old while only 28 percent say the same of Trump. However, the differences can’t entirely be chalked up to partisanship.
Weren’t people polled on this exact question four years ago? If 28 percent or less of Republicans back then said that Biden was too old, I’ll agree partisanship doesn’t sufficiently explain the issue.
It’s not the millions of people who actively support Trump that’s so discouraging. The Fox News delusion of so many Boomers and Gen Xers has been 30 years in the making and is a sad fact of our body politic. What’s jaw dropping stunning is that there is apparently a sizable percentage of people not part of the Trumperverse who could decide that Biden is too old, so they’re going to step back from voting or even vote for the grifting, immoral, ignorant, lying, serial sexual assailant, authoritarian coup plotter. Holy fuck, people. Get your face out of your phone and read a fucking newspaper once in a while.
Imagine unironically calling the guy you are trying to lock up in prison, remove from the ballot, and silence his supporters 'authoritarian.' 'Read a newspaper,' you mean the liberal-leaning New York Times? You'd be sad to find out even their Democrat-biased polls have Trump winning the election, aka you are finished. Sad!
Anyone else who engaged in his actions would be charged (and in the case of unlawfully taking government documents they have been). Thus not charging the bastard for his criminality would be authoritarian.
And no one’s silencing you. Don’t be a whiny ninny.
"Oh, put a sock in it, you TDS-suffering loon. You still believe in RussiaGate lies to this day; you are not a reasonable person.
Obama took documents.
Pence took documents.
Bush took documents.
Both Clintons took documents.
Every President took documents. Just Hillary and Biden had no right to take them.
It's going to be funny when Democrats start crying when Hillary, Biden, etc., get charged in Wyoming. Remember not to complain; they were judged by the jury of their peers. The fact that it will happen in a blue-rock or something county that just so happens to vote 90% Republican has nothing to do with it. And if you complain, you are an enemy of democracy
Those others all gave back documents when they were asked to return them. That's the problem. You don't even understand why Trump is being charged. He's being charged because he was told "you don't own those documents" and he didn't return them.
He's a national security risk every-time he opens his mouth, yet I'm sure an upstanding genius like you was so upset about Hillary's emails.
He committed crimes, and he's having his day in court just like any other person in this country.
But yes, we should throw away the justice system because "politics!". Apparently running for President means that you can just commit whatever crimes you want.
Just say that you want fascism in America. It's gonna be a lot easier to just tell the truth.
Gen Xer actually but we also have too many delusional Trump fellating twits among our number as well. Thankfully the number of orange demagogue loving cultists is declining among successive generations, though the virus continues to some degree.
The way you spot NPCs is when their posts are indistinguishable from AI chat bots loaded with corporate News marketing slogans. This is not a real person. His opinions are as irrelevant as his Tinder profile.
I have two grandparents with akzheimers and neither Biden nor Trump seem like they have it. Are they less sharp than they were when they were younger? Yes, yes they are and that concerns me. Neither was the most brilliant man in their youth. Which is not to say either is dumb, but that I do not think either rose to the level of brilliance that George HW Bush did, Barack Obama did (and does), or heck that even Bill Clinton did. But both are effective politicians.
Biden is superb at relationships, coalition building and negotiation. Biden has accomplished more in his one term in a tight Congress than basically any reasonable parallel. No he isn’t FDR or LBJ, but he has done almost as much as Obama and had more FO success.
Trump is good at demagoguery and superb and rallying his base, and painting his enemies as buffoons and villains. He is not great at the job, but has some useful skills to get there.
Biden, at 80, is still doing a good job. Trump, at 74, was incompetent and also nearly traitorous.
The choice is clear.
Oof. Who can say upon reading this that the edukashun system is not effective.
The guy you call incompetent has a majority of the country approving of the job he did as President. Good luck running against that in 24. By the way, it will be the 'are you better off than four years ago?' election, and the overwhelming majority say No, they are not better off. Meanwhile, the current guy has the worst approval rating in history, despite 24/7 media propaganda trying to brainwash the population into supporting him. The entire media complex was trying to convince voters in 2019 that 'the economy is bad; don't look at your wallet or your rent or your savings.' Now the entire media complex is doing the polar opposite: 'the economy is good; ignore your empty wallet, rising rent, and smaller and smaller grocery list as the prices continue rising.
You're only "not better off" if you are willingly ignoring reality or watching too much Fox News. We got past the pandemic. We are re-establishing alliances. We basically defeated Russia completely without wasting a single American soldier's life. We got out of Afghanistan. We passed laws to bring semi-conductor manufacturing to America. We passed legislation to combat inflation. Biden has regained all of the jobs that Trump managed to destroy due to his absolutely idiotic handling of COVID.
What on earth are you talking about? How are you worse off? If you start complaining about grocery prices I will let you know that prices have been increasing for groceries for the past 60 years or more. So, it's not a legitimate argument.
I swear MAGAs just want the world to be burning so that they can feel good about pissing off everyone else. What a bunch of hateful morons.
Biden's approval rating on the economy is the worst of any president since JImmy Carter cry all you want lie all you want it isn't fooling the voters
Do you think Biden does not show signs of Alzheimer’s?! You are either in denial, extremely cynical, or high as fuck right now.
Biden is not good at negotiating he actually screwed the Obama admin over several times in his negotiations with Mitch.
He is good at budling individual relationships.
Most people have eyes. Biden can’t speak coherently without a teleprompter, notes, or a planted question from the bootlicking media. Inflation is up 30% since he took office for staples like energy and eggs, but he has taken more vacation than any president.
$100 billion for Ukraine while our cities deteriorate and the border is swamped by “migrants” seeking handouts. Remember when Biden said if you get the jab you won’t get covid? Eisenhower warned us about the MIC and scientific technical elite who run the Biden regime: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-deliver-a-farewell-address-eisenhower
Clearly watching cleverly edited Fox news clips.
Said the same thing in 2020 until Trump and Biden debated.
I don’t know how Trumpists deal with the cognitive dissonance of an infirm Biden who can’t speak without a teleprompter but who is also the mastermind of a criminal empire, who has weaponized the entire Justice Department, and who outmaneuvered the GOP on the debt ceiling.
Imagine simping for a career politician who has been in the swamp for 50 years and thinking you’re part of “the resistance”.
I’m not part of any resistance and I’m not “simping”for anyone you demagogue fellating twit. Im just an old centrist who views politicians as necessary evils and who doesn’t fall for the Trumperverse bullshit about multi millionaires and billionaires who attend Ivy League universities being anti-elite “outsiders.”
Meanwhile, you're regurgitating Fox News talking points and thus simping for Trump's white supremacy while pretending to be progressive lol
Fox News hates trump. You are regurgitating corporate News talking points. You don’t have a mind of your own
Fox News will hate Trump until it's obvious that he's the nominee. Then they'll be his biggest fans.
Fox News and Trump both spread dishonest rightwing propaganda, just like you. You are regurgitating right wing billionaire talking points. You need cope with the fact Trump is a liar, loser, groomer, bigot and failure who lost to Biden by millions of votes and will again.
Damn, this 'white supremacist' sure seems to convince a lot of Blacks and Hispanics to vote for him. So much so that he's set to make Biden the worst minority vote share Democrat since 1984, assuming Biden wins 100% of minority undecided voters, assuming The New York Times isn't going to overestimate Biden again like they did in 2020.
A few misguided sellout Jews supported Hitler too. The fact is Black and Hispanic voters overwhelmingly prefer Biden to fat, multiply-indicted drama queen and groomer Trump, and it's not even close.
All Biden has to do to win re-election is hang onto Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan (all have Democratic governors, secretaries of state, and senators) and then one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or Georgia (all have two Democratic senators).
Trump has no chance.
We have said since the start that Biden is a zombie puppet figure. He isn't the one running the show; the Deep State is.
The Deep State. Right. Just the latest iteration of conspiracy stupidity, with as much real world validity as the satanic daycare pizza restaurants. Before the Deep State, it was the UN New World Order and their evil smart thermostats. Before that it was the communists. Before that it was the Jews. Before that it was the Catholics.
Are you referring to the debate where Chris Wallace protected Biden by pushing the lie that Hunters laptop was Russian disinformation?
Yuri, the difference with DK here is that he’s actually in his real TDS, and while denying it exists, adopts it’s namesake with the “Hunter Derangement Syndrome”. Cult behavior.
So, no. You simply cannot reason with these people.
Sad, but quite entertaining to observe, yes?
Sad was Drama Queen Donnie leaving office with the worst jobs record in history, then inciting his MAGA terrorists to attack the Capitol with sore loser election lies that were rejected by Trump Republican election officials and laughed out of court by Trump judges.
Imagine being so deep in the MAGA extremist cult you think anyone outside it takes seriously phony lectures about "reason" from supporters of Trump, an obese, old, multiply-indicted Putin-puppet traitor who repeatedly made gross comments wanting to bed his own daughter. Yuck.
The term Clinton Derangement Syndrome began in the 90s. TDS was adopted from that. Cope more.
He's referring to all three debates, where Biden wipe the floor with trump. But whatever desperate excuses you need to come up with to feed your Trump sycophancy and Hunter Derangement Syndrome.
Still mad you can't get voters to care more about Hunter's dic pics than Trump's forced birth, book banning fascism, huh?
There were only 2 debates 😂
Clearly you didn’t watch them which is why you think Biden won
Biden is president.
Trump is a multiply-indicted loser who left office with the worst jobs record in history 😂
There were only 2 debates.
Wow, do you ever stop whining??
Substack is filled with awful people like the commenter you are replying to. Taibbi and Berenson and all of the anti-vaxxers have set up shop at Substack and attracted followers that are now their minions. Substack is a steaming pile of manure and the disinformation disseminated via Substack has killed a lot more Americans than Osama Bin Laden.
Gas is cheaper now than it was in 2008. Eggs are like $1.49 a dozen at Aldi.
You were saying?
Look guys, a rich man north of Richmond thinks it’s no big deal to live in poverty.
The ruling class hates you because you are poor.
Just say you want Trump Republican white supremacy, MAGA extremism, corporate welfare, forced birth, book banning, and Putin-puppetry back in power, Adolf.
Lol triggered the NPC. So easy
Lol triggered the paid Putin troll. Keep crying 😂
#BidenWon #TrumpLost
I don’t read the replies of lower status men, but keep posting if you like.
Damn, he must have been the worst puppet in the universe. He gave missiles to Ukraine and prevented any Russian aggression. I guess Putin isn't allowing Blumpf to win again after that. He is doing way better under Biden, who allowed him to take a huge chunk of Ukraine, and he did pretty good under Obama, who allowed him to take Crimea.
Wrong. Under Traitor Trump, Putin was getting what he wanted in Ukraine at no cost to Russia, while Trump tried to breakup and disarm NATO.
Under Treason Trump, Putin quietly took more and more Ukrainian territory in Donbas, with no response from Ukraine's allies. Then Trump was impeached for helping Putin and trying to withhold weapons from Ukraine with bribery.
Putin got scared and tried to hurry and take Kyiv after Trump lost, because he knew Biden would arm Ukraine. And Putin failed because Biden reunited NATO, unlike Trump who helped Putin meddle in the 2016 election, sold out Europe to Putin, wrote love letters to communist North Korea, publicly sided with Putin over US intel, took a $2 billion blood money Saudi bribe, praised Putin after Russia tacked Kyiv, stole nuclear secrets, incited the deadly Jan. 6 terror attack, and trashed fallen US soldiers.
Keep trying to tell the voters "No you are wrong we the liberal experts say the economy is great don't look at your empty wallet don't look at your rent bill" such a good strategy i'm sure it will work great for you
Democrats are now outperforming 2020 results by 10 points in recent special elections because Biden reversed the mass death and record job loss left by Trump Republican incompetence, extremism, and corporate welfare.
And over in realityland Democrats are outperforming their 2020 results by 10-points in recent special election results. Because, unlike Putin-puppet MAGA extremists, Americans have brains.
Americans know a) Biden is not responsible for worldwide higher post-pandemic inflation and b) 3% of our total defense budget to a democratic European ally to cripple Putin and deter economically-flailing China is money well spent.
Since Biden took office, he reversed Crooked Trump's mass death and record job loss by containing COVID and monkeypox, ending the endless Afghan war, and enacting historic investments in middle and working class manufacturing, infrastructure, and clean energy. That's why Biden and Democrats built the world's strongest post-COVID economy, while Russia and China flail.
But don't let facts get in the way of your angry, bitter Fox News negativity spewed to help elect multiply-indicted groomer Trump, a thug who wants to sleep with his own daughter.
Sorry you're mad Republicans have nothing to offer but hate, lies, extremism, book banning, Jan 6. insurrection, forced birth, climate denial, mass shootings, Hunter Derangement Syndrome, and Trump's criminality.
Imagine cut pasting CIA talking points and pretending it’s your own opinion. NPCs a fascinating to study. Does this person think he’s “doing his own research” and “forming his own opinion” when he mindlessly regurgitates regime propaganda? I bet you he does.
Imagine actually being this person. How embarrassing
You need a mental therapist and some strong drugs.
I’m so sorry this is happening to you. Do you need a safe space?
You describe yourself as a "Domestic Terrorist". I wonder if anyone has ever reported you to the FBI to be put on a watchlist because you certainly need to be on one.
Hey Karen, what did the manager say after you complained that I hurt your feelz?
Triggered, Vlad? Lol
Typical low IQ MAGA extremist: can't refute the points about Biden's accomplishments and Trump's failure, so you just immediately resort to personal attacks and cut-and-paste Fox News talking points, like the brainead child you are.
Imagine thinking I need the approval of an angry, bitter, patholgical lying Putin troll simping for Trump Republican forced birth, book banning, insurrection, and white supremacy.
Glad my comment upset you. Cry more 😂
Does they/them know I don’t look at it’s replies? Let’s try and trigger another meltdown...
Radical right MAGA extremist Putin-puppet trolls are very angry more and more voters are rejecting their hateful, bitter, uninspiring Republican agenda of forced birth, book banning, climate denial, racism, gay bashing, welfare for billionaires, Jan. 6 insurrection, Trump criminality, mass shootings, and Hunter dic pics. Imagine a whole political party with nothing positive to offer American, just hatred of Biden and simping for fat, old, multiply-indicted Putin-puppet Trump. Sad!
I don’t read posts by low status men.
Unfortunately, I don't think special elections will have much predictive power for 2024. The types of voters that tend to vote in low-turnout special elections are more Democratic now. If Trump is the nominee, his supporters will turn out; we just have to persuade the persuadeables and to out-vote them
Special election results before 2018, 2020, and 2022 were pretty predictive. Still, as you say, no one should get complacent. It's still going to be a close election and a battle of turnout.
"It's going to be a close election" Lol not a chance every swing state will be R+5 minimum the fact you TDS suffering loons are saying it will be close should tell you everything you need to know about the state of the race
Trump 2-3 point popular vote victory and easy landslide in the electoral college
Lol Translation: you live in a rightwing MAGA extremist bubble and don't know Democrats are already outperforming their 2020 election results by 10-points in recent special elections.
Only Hunter Derangement Syndrome suffering loons think multiply-indicted criminal Trump is going to flip the same voters who already rejected his lies, extremism, and hate in 2020.
All Biden has to do to win re-election is hang onto Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan (all have Democratic governors, secretaries of state, and senators) and then one of Nevada, New Hampshire, or Georgia (all have two Democratic senators).
Good luck! 😂 Bookmarked to come back and laugh at you next year after Trump loses. Again lol
Yuri, I'm guessing you wouldn't be wild about a 45 year old Biden either. Given your views, I'd expect you to be very happy that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
Prices are up about 17 percent since Biden took office in January 2021. Not 30 percent.
Do you seriously think Eisenhower would have given the time of day to Trump, a man who announced before even the 2016 election he won't accept the result unless he wins? Such statements should disqualify him from office instantly.
Sounds like you migrated yourself with that name....
I wonder how much of the concern about Biden would be alleviated if he had a different Vice President. I understand that, for political reasons, he cannot replace Harris. And of course his age would be an issue no matter what. But if she had better favorables, it might be easier for skeptical Dems and hesitant independents to assuage their worries by saying to themselves, "well, if Biden dies, we are in good or possibly even better hands." Unfortunately, I don't think many people beyond the fervent Dem base feels that way about the ticket. It also makes me wonder if/when we've ever had a VP who was notably more popular than their President.
On a related note, I'm pretty meh about Biden running but am relieved not to have to suffer through the identity politics fights that would ensue in a Dem primary with Harris as an obvious frontrunner. That would be yet another exhausting line of discourse.
If Harris had higher favorables, would Biden even be running for a second term? My sense (based, I have to admit, on vibes, not evidence) is that Biden is running, in part, because he thinks that Harris couldn't be denied the nomination if he stepped down and that she would lose to Trump.
Yeah, that's a great point. Part of me says that he would still run because of ego and whatnot -- it's hard to give up that power. But if he truly saw a way to be feted as both a successful "turnaround" one-term President and the generous, self-sacrificing bridge to the next generation, he would do it (and Jill would encourage him to).
I also think a lot about the underrated possibility of Biden dying *before* the election and Kamala losing.
Yeah, I remember distinctly Biden campaigning on being a one term president, that changed.
Kamala is very popular with black voters, a critical democratic voting base. I can tell you don’t really get out much if you don’t know that.
Her popularity is surprisingly soft among Black voters, given she is the first woman of African descent to become Vice President. Her favorability among Black voters is only 70% in recent YouGov polling, compared to Biden's 78%, or Barack Obama's 86% or higher at the end of his term in office. And that's setting aside her terrible polling among other groups, earning only a 36% favorability among White voters and an even worse 35% favorability among Hispanics. It's doubtful she could even win a national Democratic primary with those numbers, let alone a general election, which is I believe the point Brian was trying to make
I wouldn't be surprised if she was more popular with Asian voters despite the fact that her Indian heritage is virtually never talked about.
On a percentage basis, fewer blacks support Harris than Democrats in general...
https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/
But I don’t get out much...
She was less popular with black voters than Biden or Sanders. That's why she had to drop out of the 2020 primary before the first states.
A few things:
1. I don't see a lot of evidence that she is popular with black voters in some outsized way relative to Biden. If she were, I think you'd see that reflected in the culture more broadly outside of the Joy Reid demographic of PMC black women.
2. More to the point, the black vote is, as we all know, a reliable part of the base. So whether Kamala or someone else were the VP, those people would largely support Biden no matter who the VP was.
3. Where there are potential turnout/enthusiasm problems among blacks, I believe it's more among black *men* and among disaffected younger voters, neither of which are exactly electrified by Kamala.
I wish that Biden were eight years younger. I also wish that I (38) were eight years younger.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
A typical Silver "if you disagree with something in this article, you need to reconsider your partisan bias" piece, which I mean as a complement.
Adding “aging expert” really gives away the game here when it comes to the journalist engaging in the time-honored tradition of smuggling in one’s own opinion via public-health professor quotes.
“This election is probably going to be close, and Trump winning might be only one Biden-has-a-McConnell-moment away.”
I find it interesting that you don’t seem to allow for the possibility or impact of Trump having a McConnell moment. And frankly that’s probably because the MAGA maniacs would vote for Trump regardless, which is pretty telling.
But let’s not forget Trump’s brain seems pretty addled - remember “person, woman, man, woman, camera, TV”?! - and IMO it’s just as likely he has some sort of speaking issue as Biden.
"And frankly that’s probably because the MAGA maniacs would vote for Trump regardless, which is pretty telling."
Honestly, this cuts both ways. Fetterman was elected Senator despite a level of disability that ought to have disqualified him. I mean I get, I would have voted for Fetterman too. To quote a guy on Twitter "would you rather vote for someone who struggles to articulate reasonable ideas or someone who clearly articulates terrible ideas". You can argue that voters are making the correct calculation that ideology is more important than personality. At the same time, personality matters, Trump's horrible personality being the cause of January 6. All I can say that in theory primary elections are a good tool to weed out impaired/corrupt/evil politicians, but that doesn't seem to be happening as much as it should.
This is a good point - but then why would/should voters (at least in Nate’s opinion) be willing to punish Biden for a “McConnell moment” any more than they’d punish Trump for it? Especially when the public seems to side more with Biden than Trump on ideology?
That's a good point too. I think Nate's point is that even a percentage point or two of "punishment" could make a difference in a close election. It could work both ways, but you are probably right that the MAGA crowd would punish Trump less because they are basically immune to criticisms of him at this point.
The bigger issue is that not just that this will have an effect at the polls but that it will actually lead to bad governance. The Feinstein situation is pretty bad, and I think Giuliani has undergone mental deterioration. I can't believe this was the same guy who prosecuted the Mafia Commission Trial and served two popular terms as NYC mayor. Some old people, even relatively cogent ones, become bad at understanding context and information sources which is why they get scammed or fall down Q rabbit holes or send me bizarre chain e-mails. I think that's what's happened to him. I think whatever happens Biden will remain a chill guy who is surrounded by nice enough advisors, but it's reasonable to worry.
To your question, Andrew: Democrats don’t have an 11th-commandment style cultural norm that would protect Biden if he blue screens. On top of that, he doesn’t have any identity or historical markers that fit with Democratic PR / leeway, his son is on trial, and the party has a *ton* of people who would love an opportunity to step up, even if they’d lose to Trump.
Because we haven't seen Trump struggle in the same ways Biden does, calling out for people who recently died, constantly getting lost on stage, shaking hands with ghosts.
Or describing America as a nation with the single word, "Asufutimaehaehfutbw"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvA-Vf0MomM
Watch the CNN townhall and then watch a Biden speech
This is a great typo:
“The age of Biden and Trump during their potential second terms corresponds to *infection* point at which the risk of death begins to increase meaningly every year.”
While age is a factor, so is health status. Biden exercises, watches his diet, and remains active aand lucid. Trump is grossly overweight, has speech (mental) impairment that means he is unable to complete a sentence and jumps (within a single sentence) to other related and unrelated topics, frequently losing focus on what he began to talk about. He doesn't exercise (golf, yes, but not walking - he uses a cart) frequently eats fast food, who knows how many soda's (sugar or sugar substitutes) he downs daily, and he is under significant stress because his former charisma is no longer working on keeping out of trouble. I'd bet on Biden living longer than Trump.
Yes, Biden's age is indeed a concern. You know whose age was also a concern? Joe Biden -- in 2020 (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/13/joe-biden-age-trump-2020-1361782)
*That* Biden turned out to be a damn fine President.
OK, it turns out we were wrong to be concerned about his age four years ago. But *this* time we're right to be worried, dammit!
Yes, he's old. Bad things may happen to him due to his advanced age. But he's not leaving the ticket, the ensuing chaos if he did at this point would be far worse for the Democrats and the country, and his track record shows no evidence that his age has negatively affected his performance as President.
So go ahead everyone. Bitch about "Biden's too old!" until you get it out of your system. And then maybe we can focus on all the other issues and concerns at stake next year.
I'm biased, but I mean..isn't 83 and in shape (eating right and exercising daily etc.), more likely to live longer than being 80 and probably 80 pounds overweight and eating garbage food? Agree that Biden has lost a few miles per hour off his fastball, but by all counts he seems to grasp issues very well, and has surrounded himself with a highly competent cabinet.
Here's the question I need addressed: How many people would change their vote/not vote based on Biden's age?
If I got asked if he's too old, I'd answer yes. But if the follow-up question was, would that make you less likely to vote for him, I'd answer emphatically no. I just can't see any meaningfully amount of people saying, "I think Biden is too old, so I'm going to vote for the other guy."
So it's not that I don't think his age is an issue, I just think it's not going to meaningfully affect the election, so how much effort should I invest in worrying about it?
Pollster: Do you have concerns about Biden’s age as a candidate in 2024?
Me: Yes.
Pollster: Does Biden’s age make it less likely you will vote for him in 2024?
Me: I would vote for Hunter Biden’s Laptop before I would vote for any of the current crop of authoritarian mouth breathers who have a statistically significant chance of winning the GOP nomination. Is that option available on your polling sheet?
So you are a zombie then
Would you rather vote for a mentally retarded man who shares your political opinions, or a whip smart double Nazi fascist who also is somehow a communist and wants to forcibly trans all children?
Policy, not people.
The major job of the president is to employ the people who run the government. This puts policies at the forefront of my vote and I suspect this is true for the people voting for Trump also.
Evidence: A guy who brags about sexually assaulting women, disrespects Goldstar families and a war hero in his own party got the vast majority of the support from people who would have voted with him just because of his party. I don't blame them I would do the same because that's what makes the biggest difference in our lives.
Agree with you broadly and the mortality stats here are quite helpful. On the narrow point of Biden being a favorite because economic conditions are improving, I mostly agree and I would frame it he’s a favorite because incumbent parties tend to win outside of recessions, and the odds of a recession are low. But when I look at prediction market pricing on both a recession and dems winning election, I think (small) markets tend to disagree with us, putting odds of both at around 50%, which is also worth noting. More detail on that market pricing in my latest post on my own stack.
I think the likelihood of a coming recession is quite high unfortunately, I hope to be wrong.
https://macromodels.substack.com/p/construction-a-portfolio-of-bets
I’m a bit more sanguine on the 2024 recession odds than political prediction markets, and that in turn makes me a bit more optimistic on Biden’s re-election odds than current betting market prices. Some thoughts in link above about recession odds but more generally how to use market pricing to derive implied probability of events.
The idea that Republicans are diligently parsing the actuarial data around aging curves and that is what’s driving their nonchalance about Trump’s age, while screaming about Biden’s, rather than partisanship is so laughable.
> Among Republicans, however, 89 percent say that Biden is too old while only 28 percent say the same of Trump. However, the differences can’t entirely be chalked up to partisanship.
Weren’t people polled on this exact question four years ago? If 28 percent or less of Republicans back then said that Biden was too old, I’ll agree partisanship doesn’t sufficiently explain the issue.
He brought up that Independents polled at 47 percent for Trump, so higher, but there is still a large gap.
It’s not the millions of people who actively support Trump that’s so discouraging. The Fox News delusion of so many Boomers and Gen Xers has been 30 years in the making and is a sad fact of our body politic. What’s jaw dropping stunning is that there is apparently a sizable percentage of people not part of the Trumperverse who could decide that Biden is too old, so they’re going to step back from voting or even vote for the grifting, immoral, ignorant, lying, serial sexual assailant, authoritarian coup plotter. Holy fuck, people. Get your face out of your phone and read a fucking newspaper once in a while.
If Republicans listened to what Fox News told them then Hillary would be in her 2nd term after defeating Jeb Bush in 2016 and Mitt Romney 2.0 in 2020
Imagine unironically calling the guy you are trying to lock up in prison, remove from the ballot, and silence his supporters 'authoritarian.' 'Read a newspaper,' you mean the liberal-leaning New York Times? You'd be sad to find out even their Democrat-biased polls have Trump winning the election, aka you are finished. Sad!
Anyone else who engaged in his actions would be charged (and in the case of unlawfully taking government documents they have been). Thus not charging the bastard for his criminality would be authoritarian.
And no one’s silencing you. Don’t be a whiny ninny.
"Oh, put a sock in it, you TDS-suffering loon. You still believe in RussiaGate lies to this day; you are not a reasonable person.
Obama took documents.
Pence took documents.
Bush took documents.
Both Clintons took documents.
Every President took documents. Just Hillary and Biden had no right to take them.
It's going to be funny when Democrats start crying when Hillary, Biden, etc., get charged in Wyoming. Remember not to complain; they were judged by the jury of their peers. The fact that it will happen in a blue-rock or something county that just so happens to vote 90% Republican has nothing to do with it. And if you complain, you are an enemy of democracy
Those others all gave back documents when they were asked to return them. That's the problem. You don't even understand why Trump is being charged. He's being charged because he was told "you don't own those documents" and he didn't return them.
He's a national security risk every-time he opens his mouth, yet I'm sure an upstanding genius like you was so upset about Hillary's emails.
Please continue to spout your hypocrisy.
If Hilary or Biden try to defraud Wyoming voters like Trump did in Georgia, I will be fine with them getting charged in Wyoming.
He committed crimes, and he's having his day in court just like any other person in this country.
But yes, we should throw away the justice system because "politics!". Apparently running for President means that you can just commit whatever crimes you want.
Just say that you want fascism in America. It's gonna be a lot easier to just tell the truth.
Fox News hated Trump and constantly tried to sabotage him since 2015. They are a progressive network full of controlled opposition. Always has been.
It’s funny how you don’t know this. Probably because you get your news from newspapers. Holy lol grandpa! What a dumb ass boomer. Low IQ move
Gen Xer actually but we also have too many delusional Trump fellating twits among our number as well. Thankfully the number of orange demagogue loving cultists is declining among successive generations, though the virus continues to some degree.
The way you spot NPCs is when their posts are indistinguishable from AI chat bots loaded with corporate News marketing slogans. This is not a real person. His opinions are as irrelevant as his Tinder profile.
Are NPC insults still popular among the r/The Donald incel crowd? Time to leave your parents’ basement and find new material.
Lol. Look guys, he did exactly what I said. Talk about no self awareness. He should change his name to Spence in Autism
"...increase meaningly every year..." should be "meaningfully". "Meaningly" means something else entirely.