Even if they back down today, will this will encourage or discourage the Iranians from building their own bomb? I suspect that they'll try harder than ever to build their "pillar of fire" and if that doesn't work, they'll buy one from North Korea and park it in a van near the White House
I’m not sure what exactly you mean by the phrase “have pursued the bomb”. However, there is no credible evidence that Iran has planned or attempted to build nuclear weapons. Although it has never provided a credible explanation for its need of enriched uranium, either.
I agree completely. Any use of nuclear weapons is very (but not infinitely) bad outcome. The concerning aspect of this situation is that Trump likely greatly underestimates the negative consequences of a nuclear strike. Indeed, he’s talked somewhat eagerly of using nukes in the past.
“But you don’t need to be some sort of game theory maven to appreciate that the small chance of a catastrophic outcome can outweigh the overwhelmingly likely but less than 100 percent chance of a trivial gain.”
Reminds me almost precisely of Black Swan author Nassim Taleb’s image of people picking up loose change from in front of a steam roller.
Even if they back down today, will this will encourage or discourage the Iranians from building their own bomb? I suspect that they'll try harder than ever to build their "pillar of fire" and if that doesn't work, they'll buy one from North Korea and park it in a van near the White House
I’m not sure what exactly you mean by the phrase “have pursued the bomb”. However, there is no credible evidence that Iran has planned or attempted to build nuclear weapons. Although it has never provided a credible explanation for its need of enriched uranium, either.
I agree completely. Any use of nuclear weapons is very (but not infinitely) bad outcome. The concerning aspect of this situation is that Trump likely greatly underestimates the negative consequences of a nuclear strike. Indeed, he’s talked somewhat eagerly of using nukes in the past.
I think you nailed it. And I have a PhD in American Politics and (second) International Relations. 100%
The ceasefire may be nothing more than buying time to get US military forces in position to carry out a coordinated assault.
The bottom line is that none of us knows what is going on. None of us has access to what is being planned.
I’ll hope for the best, but I’m not going to worry about it because there’s nothing I can do about it.
“But you don’t need to be some sort of game theory maven to appreciate that the small chance of a catastrophic outcome can outweigh the overwhelmingly likely but less than 100 percent chance of a trivial gain.”
Reminds me almost precisely of Black Swan author Nassim Taleb’s image of people picking up loose change from in front of a steam roller.