12 Comments
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Jacob Sutton's avatar

The Neil Bulletin would be *much* more creative, Neil!

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Secret Squirrel's avatar

Neil's Spiel

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Dave Rutledge's avatar

Paine Points

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Trevor's avatar

How do you get the episode into Overcast?

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Darwin's avatar

The Paine Reliever

The Paine Killer

The Paine Cake

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Mario Tavolieri's avatar

For what its worth, I think the Celtics are a much better bet than the longshot Thunder. In a post-2016 (Warriors lose to Cavs/Hillary to Trump) world, it seems as if a lot of people are hesitant to just roll with the data/consensus at the risk of being burned.

Draftkings has Celtics winning at +145 (implied odds 40.82%).

With a bankroll of $100, here's what Kelly Criterion says to bet on the Celtics according to their titles odds given by six different popular models.

Basketball Reference: $42.55

Neil Paine's ELO: $19.45

ESPN BPI: $19.17

Numberfire: $42.55

EPM: $12.55

Playoffstatus: $23.96

Compared to the Thunder at +1600 (5.88% implied odds).

Basketball Reference: $9.79

Neil Paine's ELO: $1.11

ESPN BPI: $0.58

Numberfire: $8.84

EPM: $12.60

Playoffstatus: $8.94

I think because the Celtics at +145 seems so ridiculously in their favor, it feels like a bad bet. The Thunder have an MVP candidate and a one seed, and are still given what looks like longshot odds! But the Thunder even with 16-1 odds are a riskier bet according to five of the six models (EPM- the lowest on the Celtics, and highest on OKC- still has them about even). Nate's odds, granted, were better, but I think for any jabroni jumping on the +1600 Thunder (my friend who listened to this pod with me), the Celtics are a better bet. (Go Celtics)

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david rasiel's avatar

House of Paine

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Neil Paine's avatar

Too much like House of Strauss, I don't need THAT guy coming after me (lol)

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Martin Blank's avatar

Ummm Neil...dummy, the purpose of the season is to sell tickets and make money, not "determine which teams are the best for playoff seedings".

I never understand how what the basketball analytics community can be so stupid about the core economic facts of the thing it is obsessed with. I swear the willful blindness on this issue from the "less games" crowd is maddening.

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Dave Rutledge's avatar

Both Neil & Nate pop up in this Atlantic article (though few here likely need any introduction to Elo ratings) https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2024/04/elo-ratings-are-everywhere/678129/?utm_source=apple_news

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Andy Brewer's avatar

Words of Paine

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david rasiel's avatar

World of Paine

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