In addition to the standard deviation, consider the 'relative' standard deviation (RSD): standard deviation divided by maximum possible standard deviation conditioned on the mean, which is (VibeScore * (100 - VibeScore))^0.5. (For a given Vibe Score, the maximum possible standard deviation occurs when all of the votes are either Great or Bad.)
Elgin Baylor has the lowest RSD: 50%
Michael Jordan has the highest RSD: 76.3%
Both of these RSDs are more than 5 percentage points more extreme than any others.
Current players get punished for changing teams, especially when it doesn't produce a title. I think it's a bit unfair to punish players for doing what teams are in the business of doing. But I do think that the current trend of stars not only picking their next team but also playing mini-GM in the process sets them up to be judged harshly when it doesn't work and much harsher than "loyal" players.
37.7. CP3. 7 teams. 0% of moves resulted in title.
41.0 Durant 5 teams 25% of moves resulted in title
63.8 LeBron 4 teams. 100% of moves resulted in title
74.3 Giannis 1 team. N/A
80.7 Jokic 1 team. N/A
84.2 Curry 1 team. N/A
Don't take this as serious analysis (I'm not a statistician or pretending to be one), but here's a rough regression on variables mostly tied to public perception independent of performance. r2 = 0.55
If you have Kareem at 14th you I should be disqualified from writing, commenting or wven watching basketball. The only legit GOAT conversation is between Russell, Kareem, and Jordan. In fact, I would extend that ban to all sports if it were in my power.
The score is the subjective result of a twitter poll. Fine to disagree with the public/twitter masses, but it would only be ridiculous if Nate to excluded it.
Fascinating that CP3, if not for Karl Malone’s actions, would almost certainly have the worst vibe score on the chart. Can’t say I’ve ever had strong opinions of him either way.
LeBron gets no shortage of negative vibes but doesn't get the credit for carrying the Cavs to a championship against a record 73-9 regular season team. I can' think of any Celtics/Lakers/Bulls championship team with that aura, not to mention that it was in Cleveland.
Tim Duncan should get lots of extra credit for taking substantially less pay than the maximum, without which, the Spurs wouldn't have won those five championships. I believe that Magic and MJ took cuts in some years so that a vital role player could be added but given how much they made in endorsements, this was no financial sacrifice.
NBA question for future mailbag - how imbalanced does your model(s) say the conferences are this year, relative to other seasons? Injuries have obviously been a huge factor in eastern conference playoffs, but nonetheless, it feels like 3 of 4 left in the east might not have made it out of the play-in in the west. The most imbalanced I ever remember it being was 2001-2002 season...
There is a non-absurd case the Lebron James has passed Michael Jordan as the greatest NBA player of all time (oen I do not agree with, but if one weights longevity heavily, then it is not laughable).
Yet:
* Kevin Durant is/was a better pure scorer than Lebron. If I needed one basket, I'd rather have Durant right now over Lebron at any point of his career.
* Durant at his peak was probably a better defensive player than Lebron, capable of protecting the rim and defending all five positions. In his later years, James has clearly been picking his spots on defense.
* They are about even in rebounding (about 7 rebounds per game).
* They faced each other in the Finals 3 times. The first was in Durant's fourth year with a team that was ahead of schedule against the SuperTeam James constructed in Miami. In the other two, Durant's team won, and Durant was named the Finals MVP.
Now, this case elides details that make it clear James was the superior player. James was a much better passer; he has had unprecedented longevity as an elite player; as Nate noted, Durant's Finals victories over James came with a team Durant joined after they won 73 games, etc.
Still, it would be difficult to construct a similar case with any of MIchael Jordan's contemporaries.
I give this post a high vibe score. Sports are fun, we need to have more fun!
Kudos for including the standard deviations in the table!
In addition to the standard deviation, consider the 'relative' standard deviation (RSD): standard deviation divided by maximum possible standard deviation conditioned on the mean, which is (VibeScore * (100 - VibeScore))^0.5. (For a given Vibe Score, the maximum possible standard deviation occurs when all of the votes are either Great or Bad.)
Elgin Baylor has the lowest RSD: 50%
Michael Jordan has the highest RSD: 76.3%
Both of these RSDs are more than 5 percentage points more extreme than any others.
I love this article.
I think a player like Allen Iverson would be an interesting test case for "vibes":
- incredibly entertaining player (I loved watching him back in the day)
- but modern efficiency stats don't rate him so highly
- somewhat lacking in playoff success
- polarizing personality, could cut either way
- signature off-court moment
Would be very curious how these factors net out to modern fans.
Current players get punished for changing teams, especially when it doesn't produce a title. I think it's a bit unfair to punish players for doing what teams are in the business of doing. But I do think that the current trend of stars not only picking their next team but also playing mini-GM in the process sets them up to be judged harshly when it doesn't work and much harsher than "loyal" players.
37.7. CP3. 7 teams. 0% of moves resulted in title.
41.0 Durant 5 teams 25% of moves resulted in title
63.8 LeBron 4 teams. 100% of moves resulted in title
74.3 Giannis 1 team. N/A
80.7 Jokic 1 team. N/A
84.2 Curry 1 team. N/A
Don't take this as serious analysis (I'm not a statistician or pretending to be one), but here's a rough regression on variables mostly tied to public perception independent of performance. r2 = 0.55
Variable Coefficient p-value
On Inside the NBA +23.3 0.02
% of team changes w/o title -4.1 0.51
# of teams played for -3.7 0.01
Current Player -1.7 <0.01
Shaq and Barkley having great vibes scores is funny because they had horrible vibes at certain points in their careers.
I feel like Giannis will start to get dinged more especially since he's been a brat the past year and made some horrible "player GM" calls.
What an incredibly well formatted table, hot damn
The best way for Durant to improve his vibes would be to join the upcoming Seattle expansion team, since that's where his career *really* began.
Durant has such bad vibes that he has helped lead teams to the finals four times and helped to win two championships.
The survey is a *survey* - not an argument for what "should be".
If you have Kareem at 14th you I should be disqualified from writing, commenting or wven watching basketball. The only legit GOAT conversation is between Russell, Kareem, and Jordan. In fact, I would extend that ban to all sports if it were in my power.
The score is the subjective result of a twitter poll. Fine to disagree with the public/twitter masses, but it would only be ridiculous if Nate to excluded it.
Fascinating that CP3, if not for Karl Malone’s actions, would almost certainly have the worst vibe score on the chart. Can’t say I’ve ever had strong opinions of him either way.
LeBron gets no shortage of negative vibes but doesn't get the credit for carrying the Cavs to a championship against a record 73-9 regular season team. I can' think of any Celtics/Lakers/Bulls championship team with that aura, not to mention that it was in Cleveland.
Tim Duncan should get lots of extra credit for taking substantially less pay than the maximum, without which, the Spurs wouldn't have won those five championships. I believe that Magic and MJ took cuts in some years so that a vital role player could be added but given how much they made in endorsements, this was no financial sacrifice.
I would like to have seen how The Answer scored on the Vibes check. Carrying that Sixers' team to the Finals was Herculean.
Hi Nate,
Do you have the sample size of respondents?
Best,
KC
NBA question for future mailbag - how imbalanced does your model(s) say the conferences are this year, relative to other seasons? Injuries have obviously been a huge factor in eastern conference playoffs, but nonetheless, it feels like 3 of 4 left in the east might not have made it out of the play-in in the west. The most imbalanced I ever remember it being was 2001-2002 season...
To "steelman" the case for Durant:
There is a non-absurd case the Lebron James has passed Michael Jordan as the greatest NBA player of all time (oen I do not agree with, but if one weights longevity heavily, then it is not laughable).
Yet:
* Kevin Durant is/was a better pure scorer than Lebron. If I needed one basket, I'd rather have Durant right now over Lebron at any point of his career.
* Durant at his peak was probably a better defensive player than Lebron, capable of protecting the rim and defending all five positions. In his later years, James has clearly been picking his spots on defense.
* They are about even in rebounding (about 7 rebounds per game).
* They faced each other in the Finals 3 times. The first was in Durant's fourth year with a team that was ahead of schedule against the SuperTeam James constructed in Miami. In the other two, Durant's team won, and Durant was named the Finals MVP.
Now, this case elides details that make it clear James was the superior player. James was a much better passer; he has had unprecedented longevity as an elite player; as Nate noted, Durant's Finals victories over James came with a team Durant joined after they won 73 games, etc.
Still, it would be difficult to construct a similar case with any of MIchael Jordan's contemporaries.
James was NBA Defensive 1st team 5 times; Durant 0.
No Hakeem or Patrick?