Hmm, interesting. I see it's still only 21% of Maine residents who're over 65 tho, so... I guess oldster candidates are more representative of the Maine population than elsewhere, yet still not particularly representative.
I'm not a political expert (just a keen observer) but I am a Maine resident.
1. I don't think Mills can beat Collins. She's not very inspiring, she has whiffed on progressive issues (guns, Indigenous rights), and I think covid revisionism hurts her.
2. Platner really seems to be on fire here. He's got events all over the state (I'm going to one at the end of October). The verdict isn't in but all of a sudden it has gotten interesting.
I think there is a fair argument against assuming (at this time) that 2026 will be tougher for her than 2020. Right now Trump is not as unpopular as he was in 2017, and I can't help but be skeptical we are getting a "blue wave" the way we did then. Sure the Dems will almost certainly have a solid year, (Ossoff and the Michigan seat will probably be fine, I'd even guess Cooper wins in NC), but I just don't think there is evidence of a 2018 style wave yet.
I also think going beyond just the data, the fact that she voted for Kavanaugh on the eve of the election and still survived, despite the fury that provoked from many left and centrist voters, I just don't think we can just look at a predicted national environment and say 2020 was easier then what we are going into next year.
I think a big indicator is what Maine Dems are doing, and the fact that Golden (who on paper I would think would beat her) opted out, and Mills is dragging her feet may be telling. If Susan Collins is beatable, the Democrats who have won statewide/tough races in Maine would be the ones to know, not the talking heads on twitter, and certainly not Bluesky. (The Trump era has shown just how bad they are at judging what the electorate actually wants)
Historically, age is much less of a campaign issue for Senate candidates then presidential candidates. If elected, Mills would only be the ninth-oldest Senator in the current Senate.
Eli wrote, "increasingly often, the only thing that matters is whether you have a “D” or an “R” by your name." But any time you've got "shy X voters," whether Trump or Susan, that's a very bad sign: it means they'll keep getting the silent vote and polls are worthless on them.
And maybe Republicans are not as bad with smalltentism; Trump supported that awful Gov. Larry Hogan from Maryland who could only rail against Trump day and night. Because however never-Trump he was, he WAS a Republican, and in the end he'd vote nearly always the way the Senate Republican Whip wants. Same with Collins, and we know it. She may make a stand on this or that, but most of her votes will be right down the line, and that's just fine. And she has a much more accomodating personality than Hogan did.
The data you present look as though Collins is unpollable. She's unpopular, she's behind and on and on, but she consistently wins all the same, and by a lot. We've had a lot of these campaigns to gin up interest in a race (for money for Dems, probably, and maybe a hope of votes), for instance all that carry-on about the dire straits of Ted Cruz, who of course won comfortably. If they can't get Maine, they sure can't get Ohio; so I think the GOP will safely hold the Senate this election. Failing political catastrophe, that is. The House could be more iffy.
Pretty sure Collins' favorability was also terrible in Morning Consult in 2020 (likely as a result of some Republican reluctance in those up or down polls). She's basically a Lisa Murkowski type consensus candidate with perhaps more respect from the louder GOP voices online and in other chattering spaces who think they could do better than Murk but not Collins.
I didn’t really see a prediction in that post. Nate has been shy about early political predictions, he understands how difficult they are, but I have no reputation to conserve, so…
Absent recession, war or N escalation of upheaval, the election hinges on whether the D candidate can convince the people of Maine that Trump needs to be resisted. If you have any fear of Trump, you don’t vote for Collins.
2020 is a very flukey precedent because, during the pandemic, Democrats wanted to take away all sorts of freedoms, Trump was relatively chill about coercive distancing, and freedom loving Americans could vote R with self respect. I thought that Trump had a better pandemic policy than Biden, but voted Biden because I thought the pandemic was mostly over. Mask mandates on airplanes continued for too long, but I think freedom did better under Biden than it would have under a consecutive Trump administration.
In any event, I wouldn’t lean too hard on 2020 in the case for Collins. But if she’s, say, 3 points above generic, she still loses narrowly against a generic opponent in the 2024 environment.
I would note that a softening economy could sink her and the economy is more likely to soften than weaken.
Well,if the Demand are counting on running against Trump with the same old tired message it is hard to get exciabout the Democrats. Look the minority leader has yet to endorse the Democratic candidate for mayor. Am I member of an organized political Party?
Nate how do you adjust the historical NFL player ratings taking into account the change in rules? The NFL has certainly made the offensive side of the ball easier in terms of the rules and if you watched the beatings the QB took in the 60 and 7x0s no way these guys playing into the late 30s and the climate change and indoor facilities have also had an effect.
I was surprised not to see comments about the independent candidate Phillip Rench. I hadn't heard of him before, but with $34M in the bank, and with Maine's history of supporting independents, that could throw a significant wrench (!) into the mix. But I have no idea what the likely effect would be.
I have seen this error in several different places, and as we get further from the actual election, it will start to sound like fact. So it needs to be corrected now.
Important misinterpretation: in 2020, there was a third-party candidate on the ballot, far to the left of both Collins and the Democrat. It’s almost certain that the second choice of that far left candidate was not Collins. So the election in 2020 had it gone to rank choice, would’ve shown a much much closer race than 8.6%. We will never know exactly how close it actually was. But to call it a blowout is very very misleading. It was actually very close.
Congrats on the promotion, Eli!
Collins is 72 and Mills is 77. Ugh. I feel for Maine voters having to tolerate these ancient candidates.
Interesting factor here: Maine is the state with the highest proportion of residents over age 65. https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/
Hmm, interesting. I see it's still only 21% of Maine residents who're over 65 tho, so... I guess oldster candidates are more representative of the Maine population than elsewhere, yet still not particularly representative.
77 may indeed be too old. I bet Mills does not run: anywhere near or over 80 is now taboo since the sad Biden situation.
I'm not a political expert (just a keen observer) but I am a Maine resident.
1. I don't think Mills can beat Collins. She's not very inspiring, she has whiffed on progressive issues (guns, Indigenous rights), and I think covid revisionism hurts her.
2. Platner really seems to be on fire here. He's got events all over the state (I'm going to one at the end of October). The verdict isn't in but all of a sudden it has gotten interesting.
I think there is a fair argument against assuming (at this time) that 2026 will be tougher for her than 2020. Right now Trump is not as unpopular as he was in 2017, and I can't help but be skeptical we are getting a "blue wave" the way we did then. Sure the Dems will almost certainly have a solid year, (Ossoff and the Michigan seat will probably be fine, I'd even guess Cooper wins in NC), but I just don't think there is evidence of a 2018 style wave yet.
I also think going beyond just the data, the fact that she voted for Kavanaugh on the eve of the election and still survived, despite the fury that provoked from many left and centrist voters, I just don't think we can just look at a predicted national environment and say 2020 was easier then what we are going into next year.
I think a big indicator is what Maine Dems are doing, and the fact that Golden (who on paper I would think would beat her) opted out, and Mills is dragging her feet may be telling. If Susan Collins is beatable, the Democrats who have won statewide/tough races in Maine would be the ones to know, not the talking heads on twitter, and certainly not Bluesky. (The Trump era has shown just how bad they are at judging what the electorate actually wants)
IMO, Lean R until we see what Mills does
What if the democrats simply did not nominate someone about to need assisted living.
Historically, age is much less of a campaign issue for Senate candidates then presidential candidates. If elected, Mills would only be the ninth-oldest Senator in the current Senate.
Eli wrote, "increasingly often, the only thing that matters is whether you have a “D” or an “R” by your name." But any time you've got "shy X voters," whether Trump or Susan, that's a very bad sign: it means they'll keep getting the silent vote and polls are worthless on them.
And maybe Republicans are not as bad with smalltentism; Trump supported that awful Gov. Larry Hogan from Maryland who could only rail against Trump day and night. Because however never-Trump he was, he WAS a Republican, and in the end he'd vote nearly always the way the Senate Republican Whip wants. Same with Collins, and we know it. She may make a stand on this or that, but most of her votes will be right down the line, and that's just fine. And she has a much more accomodating personality than Hogan did.
The data you present look as though Collins is unpollable. She's unpopular, she's behind and on and on, but she consistently wins all the same, and by a lot. We've had a lot of these campaigns to gin up interest in a race (for money for Dems, probably, and maybe a hope of votes), for instance all that carry-on about the dire straits of Ted Cruz, who of course won comfortably. If they can't get Maine, they sure can't get Ohio; so I think the GOP will safely hold the Senate this election. Failing political catastrophe, that is. The House could be more iffy.
She will be 73 when the election occurs, that may well be of importance
Pretty sure Collins' favorability was also terrible in Morning Consult in 2020 (likely as a result of some Republican reluctance in those up or down polls). She's basically a Lisa Murkowski type consensus candidate with perhaps more respect from the louder GOP voices online and in other chattering spaces who think they could do better than Murk but not Collins.
I didn’t really see a prediction in that post. Nate has been shy about early political predictions, he understands how difficult they are, but I have no reputation to conserve, so…
Absent recession, war or N escalation of upheaval, the election hinges on whether the D candidate can convince the people of Maine that Trump needs to be resisted. If you have any fear of Trump, you don’t vote for Collins.
2020 is a very flukey precedent because, during the pandemic, Democrats wanted to take away all sorts of freedoms, Trump was relatively chill about coercive distancing, and freedom loving Americans could vote R with self respect. I thought that Trump had a better pandemic policy than Biden, but voted Biden because I thought the pandemic was mostly over. Mask mandates on airplanes continued for too long, but I think freedom did better under Biden than it would have under a consecutive Trump administration.
In any event, I wouldn’t lean too hard on 2020 in the case for Collins. But if she’s, say, 3 points above generic, she still loses narrowly against a generic opponent in the 2024 environment.
I would note that a softening economy could sink her and the economy is more likely to soften than weaken.
Democrats have a 55% chance of unseating her.
Getting Tester vibes from her
Well,if the Demand are counting on running against Trump with the same old tired message it is hard to get exciabout the Democrats. Look the minority leader has yet to endorse the Democratic candidate for mayor. Am I member of an organized political Party?
Nate how do you adjust the historical NFL player ratings taking into account the change in rules? The NFL has certainly made the offensive side of the ball easier in terms of the rules and if you watched the beatings the QB took in the 60 and 7x0s no way these guys playing into the late 30s and the climate change and indoor facilities have also had an effect.
I was surprised not to see comments about the independent candidate Phillip Rench. I hadn't heard of him before, but with $34M in the bank, and with Maine's history of supporting independents, that could throw a significant wrench (!) into the mix. But I have no idea what the likely effect would be.
I have seen this error in several different places, and as we get further from the actual election, it will start to sound like fact. So it needs to be corrected now.
Important misinterpretation: in 2020, there was a third-party candidate on the ballot, far to the left of both Collins and the Democrat. It’s almost certain that the second choice of that far left candidate was not Collins. So the election in 2020 had it gone to rank choice, would’ve shown a much much closer race than 8.6%. We will never know exactly how close it actually was. But to call it a blowout is very very misleading. It was actually very close.