Democrats are taking a huge risk either way. But they shouldn't try to get away with a Rose Garden campaign.
Why can’t Biden AND Trump just go away so we can have something resembling a normal election?
Biden might be more acceptable if he were to dump Kamala Harris and replace her with someone who inspires confidence that he/she could actually step in and do a credible job. Kackling Kamala only had 1 - 2% polling when she dropped out even before the first primary and she was clearly picked solely for her race and sex.
I was hoping that “Fantasy Politics Manager” link was a real game that was about to suck up hours of my time 😂
Your the best in the business so I’ll read whatever you write, but Biden is going to be the nominee. When do we get a model
Nice column, but you simply dip your toe in the water without examining the real question. What evidence is there that Biden’s age has caused him to make mistakes, to fail to act, to use poor judgment either short or long term ?
I would say none and your James Polk closer indicates that you probably agree.
Campaigning is only the prelude to governing. I don’t see any indication that Biden has governed poorly. Criticism of Biden has consisted of GOP smears and media cosmetology. There is no chorus of agreement that he has done anything that a center-left Democrat president would do wrong or foolishly. In fact he has done a decent better than decent job. Much better than his obese senescent narcissist opponent did or would do again.
I broadly agree with the concerns. My only nit is I’m not sure the activity level of Trump as incumbent President is a fair comparison. Does anyone really believe he was actively engaged in governing at the same time as campaigning? I’m fairly certain he prioritized rallies and whatever he felt like over governing.
Since "Generic Democrat" will not be running, in order to beat a former president who has strong popular support, it would be necessary to find an actual person who has (1) national name recognition, (2) immediate credibility as someone with a well-recognized, proven track record of governing, and negotiating with both foreign and domestic political leaders, and (3) a well-known record of assembling coalitions among multiple highly contentious parties to achieve both meaningful legislation and effective international action. Mr. or Ms. "Congeniality with Strong Home State Support" will not cut it. I frankly don't believe such a person exists. I don't believe a Rose Garden campaign would be a worse bet than suddenly and desperately trying to find and promote a non-existent person. Polis, Pritzker, Whitmer et al. may be viable down the road, but right now against Trump? Who would be willing to take that bet? What odds would you give?
I understand concerns about age and effective campaigning, etc. But take a step back. In no other universe would we expect the incumbent to walk away or be a significant underdog a year out from the election; Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020, BEFORE Jan 6 or Dobbs, or Trump's criminal trials, etc. So the idea that he's going to lose enough of those votes to lose the election is hard to believe; As mentioned in the article, Trump had a more prolific campaign schedule, but still lost in 2020. So is this really as big a deal as it seems....it needs to be noted that his rallys - which have a few thousand people hooting and hollering - don't translate into votes any more than a large Twitter/X presence does. Biden's the obvious candidate. And yes, he's old. And yes, people will be concerned about his age. Does this mean people won't vote for him? No.
A Trump-Biden rerun would almost certainly be decided on the basis of which candidate alarmed the public more. And that is not normal, so it strikes me as unreliable to predict based on normal benchmarks.
My guess is that active campaigning will mean little, because the goal of that is to get people to vote FOR you. But this time, the vast majority of the people will be voting AGAINST someone.
Again, just a guess, but I'm thinking that a whole lot of people expressing disapproval of Biden are saying this in the hope they can get someone younger or more progressive. Not that they won't vote for whoever runs against Trump. Including Biden.
There will be months of criminal trials during this campaign, and I suspect that that (and the spin of that) will be the determining factor.
Of course, if Republicans were to nominate Nikki Haley, we would have a normal campaign, and if Biden couldn't campaign effectively, he would be toast. But then, barring some shocking event along the way, Haley would trounce him regardless.
It all comes down to this: what other Democrat can beat Biden. It certainly isn’t Harris. I don’t see anyone else out there. It is what it is!
Biden said while campaigning in 2020: “Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,”. It's getting late Joe!
The problem with campaigning in an era of social media, AI, mobility, and algorithmic driven campaigns is that a perfect candidate can be quickly suffocated by multi-channel digital-chaos until support dwindles to some (theoretical) baseline. It's now a subtractive game, and it happens quickly - so the longer the campaign, the more subraction. While I understand that "presidential campaigns take more than a year to run" in the past, I'm not sure that plays into the new game - I think most of that campaigning is completely wasted effort. So are debates.
In my naivete', I keep hoping someone is thinking about shuffling, at a strategic point, a: Newsom, Whitmire, Pritzker, etc. into a role in the ticket after it's too late for the chaos to affect the outcome.
Out of curiosity, if Biden is currently at nearly record-low popularity levels, what would cause him to be retiring as a "historically well-regarded president"? Wouldn't we, by definition, need to wait a few decades to see how his term went in retrospect?
MAGA extremist Nate Silver being disloyal to Joe Biden and Disney again.
Guys, this whole thread is stupid. You don’t get your choice of candidates. The time to draft someone was months ago. His opponent is not some generic Republican but Donald Trump, who is...not the person that makes any sense when he speaks. You think Biden is bad? Trump thinks Kim Jong Un is the president of China and that he was president in 2021. Yet here you all are whining about Biden.
I doubt anyone who is considering this option needs to be told what not voting for Biden means - I assume anyone in that position has been there and back over and over with those trying to convince them. I will just say - I don’t think there has ever been a candidate that fully aligns with my values, and I am comfortable voting in a strategic fashion.
I find it striking that the Democratic leadership will not permit a credible challenger to Biden, but the supposedly "authoritarian" Republicans are holding real primaries with real choices (eg current and former governors and senators). And I say this as a lifelong (I'm 68) Democrat.