17 Comments
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Neil Paine's avatar

What, no Andrew Wiggins in that group? ;)

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Nate Silver's avatar

Lol, Neil. I think he might have been on track to be but then the hype faded following his mediocre year at Kanas. Probably in the next tier down along with KAT. Blake Griffin maybe too but he debuted at 21 after being hurt his rookie year.

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Peter S's avatar

I would include Wiggins over Luka. We had a whole year of “riggin for wiggins”. Luka got drafted behind Marvin freakin Bagley. This is hindsight bias.

Ben Simmons also had a ton of hype although his LSU year was weird enough to justify excluding him I think.

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Sharty's avatar

I looked it up so you don't have to: Michael Jordan was not eligible for inclusion on this list, having played three seasons at UNC. Since for people of a certain age, it's basically like the Homer Simpson quote:

> I've been doing some thinking, and I got some ideas to improve [Itchy and Scratchy]. I got it right here. Uh, one: Poochie needs to be louder, angrier and have access to a time machine. Two: Whenever Poochie's not on screen, all the other characters should be asking, "Where's Poochie?" Three--

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Nate Silver's avatar

Yeah I'm glad that MJ wasn't eligible because that's a case where hindsight bias would really have been tested.

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ABC News Enjoyer's avatar

No matter how much you pretend to like basketball we all know you're racist

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Martin Blank's avatar

I feel like the odds are his career will be cut short by injury. Physical outliers would make me super nervous.

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Terrance Lindenbergg's avatar

I want to read more of his commentary and analysis . Would have no trouble subscribing if I fine it worth my time. Thanks.

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Brad Anderson's avatar

Nate can you PLEASE post the sports predictions that 538 used to have?? I used to check that daily with my dad

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David S's avatar

Wemby is easily the most hyped prospect in the last 30 years besides LeBron. His hype has easily eclipsed Shaq's, who didn't even go straight to the NBA.

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Jeremy Beal's avatar

It’s LeJon Brames

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Thomas Irwin's avatar

The one other thing I will say here - given his relatively strange NBA career, I think people forget how much hype Ben Simmons amassed coming into the league. Many saw him as a the next Lebron (including Magic Johnson, who literally called him the next Lebron - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-06/ben-simmons-the-best-all-round-player-since-lebron-magic/7070708).

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Matt C's avatar

Agreed. I’ve always thought that there should be two tiers of assists - when Draymond passes to Stef for a 30 footer vs LeBron threading it by someone’s ear for a layup.

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Caleb Barber's avatar

Great writeup as always. I think his preseason performance really solidified my prediction. Especially with how bad the Spurs are, I think there's slim chance he doesn't become "the guy" in San Antonio, and have a monster year.

I'm really gonna miss the RAPTOR game projections this season, last year my friends and I made absolute bank betting on them!

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Matt C's avatar

This is stating the obvious (or is it?), but the separator for most kinds of special greatness is midrange or 3 point or just shooting touch. If you take that away from VW, you have a crazy mobile big man who will crush it on defense but that’s it. Same for Jokic - he is a radically different player without his shooting touch (duh). Same with Embiid, Durant. There are exceptions but not that many.

Is this very obvious? I will just say - Jokic, for example - is hyped for being a great passer and great rebounder (is he? Lots of uncontested defensive rebounds, lots of good but not otherworldly passes), but it’s his shooting touch that is mind blowing.

We are talking so much about Victor because he can shoot from anywhere. It seems maybe that is under-emphasized?

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Martin Blank's avatar

I think you are underselling Jokic's passing a bit, but the thing with players like him and Lebron is their passing is a bit overrated in some sense because they are drawing so much attention. Or rather maybe their "absolute passing" isn't as elite as it seems, but their "effective passing" becomes super elite because of the way they contort the defense and create a lot of space for other players.

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Jeremiah Johnson's avatar

Nate, do you know Dean? He's another old time twoplustwo sports betting forums guy. Always enjoyed his NBA writing.

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