There's no real way to turn it around. Appearing in public is a liability. He can't sell an alternative vision to Trump's. He can't make the best of Democrats' best issues. If my dad was behaving or speaking like Biden, I would call 911. When Biden skipped the Super Bowl, I felt dread. Oh no, they are hiding him from swing voters. But they weren't. They were hiding him from me, a guy who has sent an unsustainable amount of my wages to Democrats around the country. Please. Please drop out.
Nate I respect your opinion, but there is some information about some deadlines in some swing states that may prevent the DNC from picking another candidate. R u aware of this? The info comes from the Heritage Foundation. No big fan of there’s. For the record, I lean conservative but respect your opinion very highly, because u r honest.
While no one should ever attempt a diagnosis of someone without having physically examined them, speculation based on visual evidence is not a diagnosis. That being said:
Here are a few of the outward signs that are associated with Lewy-Body-Dementia:
1 Onset is more rapid than other forms of dementia such as Alzheimer's.
2. Progression is more rapid than other forms of dementia such as Alzheimer's.
3. Stiff, Parknsonian-like body movements combined with reduced rate of eye-blinking.
4. Average life-expectancy is 5 to 8 years.
5. Anybody notice any of this with Mr. Biden?
6. Any MDs out there (especially Neurologists) please feel free to weigh in.
Can we start a donor boycott of Biden for President and all Democratic candidates that don't publicly call for Biden to not run and to release his delegates at the convention? If major donors all started doing this, I think it would take about 20 minutes for Biden to announce he wants to spend more time with his grandchildren.
I have to call Bad Use of Polling for linking to the “utterly catastrophic” poll in the Twitter/X link. That post says the Leger polls show the race went from 43-41 Biden pre-debate to 50-42 Trump post-debate. The prior poll did show 43-41 Biden among likely voters (with 11% other, 4% undecided, and 2% won’t vote). However, the post-debate poll shows 50-42 Trump among ‘decided voters”. It shows 45-38 Trump among likely voters (with 8% other, 8% undecided, and 1% won’t vote). Clearly this is still a bad shift for Biden, but it is not Trump at 50% bad (especially with the other and undecided levels).
DNC strategy is as clear as it has ever been, find two green-eyed women to survive the burning blade...so David Lopan can rule the universe from beyond the grave.
In the podcast you say New York isn't a swing state, but if Trump is going to lead in the National polls by +7% after a post debate shift isn't New York going to be a swing state? Recent polls have Biden leading by 8%-10% in a Trump +1% national environment.
If Biden stays in I expect it is over, we will have to wait but I expect Trump will have a 5%-12% lead in the next batch of polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
I understand that a debate at this stage CAN be correlated to the outcome. But have I not seen studies about how the undecided voter is most swayed by information that is very close to the election? I believe it was analysis about the effectiveness of TV campaigns and the business of selling them early when they do not work? There is another debate and since Trump does not have any legitimate material - he has revealed his hand strategy wise. Of course he could walk away from that one and claim victory (and that would be smart) - but since there are actual hard issues (abortion, Jan 6th, felonies) that can be hit hard in the sweet spot closer to the election - it seems early to panic.
I think this was a much more consequential debate than most in that Biden's cognitive ability was in question, and this was a chance to either confirm or counter the claim of cognitive decline. It confirmed it. Also, accepting Nate's 2/3 probability of a Trump win, Biden needed to gain the upper hand. We will see when the polls come in, but I cant see any Biden bump, and I have no doubt that the betting odds improved for Trump post debate.
Biden should do the right thing for his party and country and step aside. Whitmer, Cooper, Basheer, Polis, could all be excellent candidates. If you are losing to somebody with 42% approvals, likely b/c yours are 40% you are a weak candidate. His approvals are weaker than any recent incumbent.
He is a weak candidate. In the 2020 election he was "Not Trump." He was white, male, aligned with establishment politics, which I think means no surprises and no excitement. He did not have followers - he had not Trumpers - which makes it tough to run a campaign that connects with voters. However, the misstep in the debate is one of emotional content - in my mind that means the last impression will be the important impression. The let down is not one of content, and therefore not easily recalled by the swing voter in the future IF he can present a more energetic version of himself. Then again - I would not have guessed it to be this close - or guessed that there would be a bunch of people using the term IQ wrong - or guessed that conservatives would switch from "I am a budget hawk, oh we spent what?" "Oh then I care about character, that darn Clinton, oh wait my guy did what" "Oh, i am a patriot red white and blue - go Russia!" ....basically my childhood to adult family dinner table conversations!
I am not sure what you mean by " the misstep in the debate is one of emotional content". Repeated pollsters have said that people think Biden is too old, and they have been debating his cognitive status for years. Therefore the debate was largely about his mental acuity, not emotional, he just, by everybody I have talked to, was two bricks short a load.
The article is about Biden stepping down, and, sure, I am a Dem so I agree more with him, but that does not mean he can win. Nate had him at a 1/3 chance of winning and now post debate it probably will drop below 30%.
In 2020 his approvals were above 50%, now at 38%. No incumbent below 45% at this point has won.
Question for the “June” SBSQ: How has the reception to your models (especially the presidential election model) changed over the years? The “model wars” you mentioned on launch of this year’s model probably seemed unimaginable when you were building your first models 16 years (!) ago.
Hi Nate! Your co-host had one or two sentences when she forgot to mention how much she hates Trump and how hE lIEs AlL thE tImE.
Can you please remind her? Some people may think she's not a Good Person (TM) if she doesn't say it all the time. In fact, why say anything else? That's what people subscribe for; rich white ladies getting excited about feeling faux-victimized.
What I appreciated most about this discussion is Nate calling out the handlers. And, if I could add, some of his family. It was cruel to do that to him. I truly don't think he knew and it just breaks my heart. They are cowards. And, more than that, this is not how you "protect democracy." You don't govern as an unelected for someone who is incapacitated without the will of the voters. It confirms my worst suspicions in that I didn't misread Biden all these years. He would not have made some of these horrendous policy decisions that have made him so unpopular if he were himself. If he is well and truly not capable, it's abuse.
What if everyone who thinks Joe Biden should drop out donates exactly $1 to his campaign (I thought a penny but ActBlue has a minimum donation). I wonder if that would send the message.
SBSQ: What do think are the odds that Biden will actually step aside and allow for there to be an open convention? Like RBG and others before him, Biden seems stubborn on the issue, and I’m not sure if he’s actually capable of coming to terms with his own inability to run this campaign.
The question is not will Joe drop out. The question is, will his inner circle float is an alternative to him who has an obvious chance of being able to win. Joe thinks of himself as a bulwark against Trump. He will only drop out if he sees a viable alternative. Someone needs to get Polis down to the White House QUICK
I'm not surprised that people are very concerned. But given Reagan's recovery from his first debate against Mondale, I'm a bit surprised at the degree of certainty that Biden can't recover enough to win the election.
I do think you make a good point that, even if Biden could recover and win, it still might be better to select a different Democrat who would be better able to serve out a full term.
At this date in 1984 Ronald Reagan was at 55% approval. Biden is at 38%. In fact every incumbent first term who at this point was below 45% approvals - Carter, Bush Sr., Ford, and Trump lost and of those Biden's #s are below Trump and Ford.
Reagan might have had a bad debate but otherwise there is little comparison in the situations.
It's not to say that Biden can't recover, but comparing this debate to the first Reagan v Mondale debate, I can't see the parallel. In that one, Reagan took a beating, but he was at least actually debating, having a conversation, and he maintained a presence. Biden in last night's debate honestly reminded me of my grandfather who had Alzheimer's. It's going to take a miracle for Biden to turn things around at this point.
And I don't think the DNC picking another candidate would be the solution people think it will be. If they just unilaterally pick a candidate, I picture a backlash ala Hubert Humphrey. Basically, I hope I'm wrong, but my gut tells me that debate performance last night clinched the win for Trump in November.
I find the behavior of Dems, and I am mostly one, very MAGA like in that they refuse to see the obvious whether it is Trump having lost an election or Biden being .beyond his expiration date. Dems seem willing to lose rather than admit the obvious. Whether this is just his ego or he is too far removed from reality to understand that he is going to lose, I dont know, but if you want a chuckle, Jeff Maurer has this very funny take: https://imightbewrong.substack.com/p/dont-worry-i-got-advice-about-preserving
Caleb, of course there are problems with picking a late candidate, and btw it is not the DNC, it would be the individual delegates committed to Joe Biden, that if Biden dropped out would be free to vote as they wish. But the alternative to lose to Trump is the worst of the options. The Hubert Humphrey analogy is a different story. To me 1968 was closer to 2016 where the angry left, the Chicago riots etc. sowed divisiveness and the left deserted Humphrey ( and of course he was associated with LBJ and Vietnam).
As a Democrat I feel our party should respect democracy. Few of us wanted Joe, I think the culprit was some kind of groupthink that you had to protect the incumbent. I think putting forth an 82 year old befuddled man is hurting the brand, regardless of whether the alternative will succeed. If the batter is injured, you put in a pinch hitter.
I'm not sure what you mean by "a backlash a la Hubert Humphrey." A backlash from whom? Swing voters? Diehard Biden supporters? Supporters of Harris/Newsom/Shapiro/whoever, if someone else gets the nod?
If you recall what happened back in1968, Humphrey almost certainly did better than LBJ would have, and he came from behind to very nearly defeat Nixon. Democrats could have done a lot worse.
It's not a direct comparison, but after Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, the pledged delegates and superdelegates conspired to go with the "safe" choice of the former VP. This caused many voters to feel betrayed as many would have preferred Eugene McCarthy as their second choice (because he was also anti-war), but the DNC went with Humphrey who was seen as an establishment candidate.
It wasn't many people that chose not to vote or to register a protest vote, but given that Nixon only won by a rough cumulative margin of about 500k votes (<1%), it very likely cost the Democrats the election. In a similar vein, given how small the margins are right now, making even a small fraction (<1%) of the base feel alienated will likely cost the election.
This is somewhat true. The primary process at that time was largely decided in state conventions where Humphrey was favored. But imo the current situation is not similar to the ideological split that was happening in 68, particularly over Vietnam, but just that we have an injured batter coming to the plate and want a pinch hitter. It is not that Gretchen Whitmer is miles apart from Biden, but that Biden is an 82 year old befuddled man with all the signs of losing the upcoming election.
It is difficult to parse out the election which, you are correct Nixon's popular vote margin was only 0.7% but the big factor was Wallace who took the deep South.
There's no real way to turn it around. Appearing in public is a liability. He can't sell an alternative vision to Trump's. He can't make the best of Democrats' best issues. If my dad was behaving or speaking like Biden, I would call 911. When Biden skipped the Super Bowl, I felt dread. Oh no, they are hiding him from swing voters. But they weren't. They were hiding him from me, a guy who has sent an unsustainable amount of my wages to Democrats around the country. Please. Please drop out.
"Democrats always freak out!"
Sometimes when people freak out it's because they're about to crash into a tree.
Nate I respect your opinion, but there is some information about some deadlines in some swing states that may prevent the DNC from picking another candidate. R u aware of this? The info comes from the Heritage Foundation. No big fan of there’s. For the record, I lean conservative but respect your opinion very highly, because u r honest.
Except those laws apply to nominees. Biden is literally not the nominee and won't be until August.
While no one should ever attempt a diagnosis of someone without having physically examined them, speculation based on visual evidence is not a diagnosis. That being said:
Here are a few of the outward signs that are associated with Lewy-Body-Dementia:
1 Onset is more rapid than other forms of dementia such as Alzheimer's.
2. Progression is more rapid than other forms of dementia such as Alzheimer's.
3. Stiff, Parknsonian-like body movements combined with reduced rate of eye-blinking.
4. Average life-expectancy is 5 to 8 years.
5. Anybody notice any of this with Mr. Biden?
6. Any MDs out there (especially Neurologists) please feel free to weigh in.
Can we start a donor boycott of Biden for President and all Democratic candidates that don't publicly call for Biden to not run and to release his delegates at the convention? If major donors all started doing this, I think it would take about 20 minutes for Biden to announce he wants to spend more time with his grandchildren.
I have to call Bad Use of Polling for linking to the “utterly catastrophic” poll in the Twitter/X link. That post says the Leger polls show the race went from 43-41 Biden pre-debate to 50-42 Trump post-debate. The prior poll did show 43-41 Biden among likely voters (with 11% other, 4% undecided, and 2% won’t vote). However, the post-debate poll shows 50-42 Trump among ‘decided voters”. It shows 45-38 Trump among likely voters (with 8% other, 8% undecided, and 1% won’t vote). Clearly this is still a bad shift for Biden, but it is not Trump at 50% bad (especially with the other and undecided levels).
DNC strategy is as clear as it has ever been, find two green-eyed women to survive the burning blade...so David Lopan can rule the universe from beyond the grave.
In the podcast you say New York isn't a swing state, but if Trump is going to lead in the National polls by +7% after a post debate shift isn't New York going to be a swing state? Recent polls have Biden leading by 8%-10% in a Trump +1% national environment.
No because if NY is up for the taking the election is over.
If Biden stays in I expect it is over, we will have to wait but I expect Trump will have a 5%-12% lead in the next batch of polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
I understand that a debate at this stage CAN be correlated to the outcome. But have I not seen studies about how the undecided voter is most swayed by information that is very close to the election? I believe it was analysis about the effectiveness of TV campaigns and the business of selling them early when they do not work? There is another debate and since Trump does not have any legitimate material - he has revealed his hand strategy wise. Of course he could walk away from that one and claim victory (and that would be smart) - but since there are actual hard issues (abortion, Jan 6th, felonies) that can be hit hard in the sweet spot closer to the election - it seems early to panic.
I think this was a much more consequential debate than most in that Biden's cognitive ability was in question, and this was a chance to either confirm or counter the claim of cognitive decline. It confirmed it. Also, accepting Nate's 2/3 probability of a Trump win, Biden needed to gain the upper hand. We will see when the polls come in, but I cant see any Biden bump, and I have no doubt that the betting odds improved for Trump post debate.
Biden should do the right thing for his party and country and step aside. Whitmer, Cooper, Basheer, Polis, could all be excellent candidates. If you are losing to somebody with 42% approvals, likely b/c yours are 40% you are a weak candidate. His approvals are weaker than any recent incumbent.
He is a weak candidate. In the 2020 election he was "Not Trump." He was white, male, aligned with establishment politics, which I think means no surprises and no excitement. He did not have followers - he had not Trumpers - which makes it tough to run a campaign that connects with voters. However, the misstep in the debate is one of emotional content - in my mind that means the last impression will be the important impression. The let down is not one of content, and therefore not easily recalled by the swing voter in the future IF he can present a more energetic version of himself. Then again - I would not have guessed it to be this close - or guessed that there would be a bunch of people using the term IQ wrong - or guessed that conservatives would switch from "I am a budget hawk, oh we spent what?" "Oh then I care about character, that darn Clinton, oh wait my guy did what" "Oh, i am a patriot red white and blue - go Russia!" ....basically my childhood to adult family dinner table conversations!
I am not sure what you mean by " the misstep in the debate is one of emotional content". Repeated pollsters have said that people think Biden is too old, and they have been debating his cognitive status for years. Therefore the debate was largely about his mental acuity, not emotional, he just, by everybody I have talked to, was two bricks short a load.
The article is about Biden stepping down, and, sure, I am a Dem so I agree more with him, but that does not mean he can win. Nate had him at a 1/3 chance of winning and now post debate it probably will drop below 30%.
In 2020 his approvals were above 50%, now at 38%. No incumbent below 45% at this point has won.
Question for the “June” SBSQ: How has the reception to your models (especially the presidential election model) changed over the years? The “model wars” you mentioned on launch of this year’s model probably seemed unimaginable when you were building your first models 16 years (!) ago.
Hi Nate! Your co-host had one or two sentences when she forgot to mention how much she hates Trump and how hE lIEs AlL thE tImE.
Can you please remind her? Some people may think she's not a Good Person (TM) if she doesn't say it all the time. In fact, why say anything else? That's what people subscribe for; rich white ladies getting excited about feeling faux-victimized.
Thanks :)
What I appreciated most about this discussion is Nate calling out the handlers. And, if I could add, some of his family. It was cruel to do that to him. I truly don't think he knew and it just breaks my heart. They are cowards. And, more than that, this is not how you "protect democracy." You don't govern as an unelected for someone who is incapacitated without the will of the voters. It confirms my worst suspicions in that I didn't misread Biden all these years. He would not have made some of these horrendous policy decisions that have made him so unpopular if he were himself. If he is well and truly not capable, it's abuse.
What if everyone who thinks Joe Biden should drop out donates exactly $1 to his campaign (I thought a penny but ActBlue has a minimum donation). I wonder if that would send the message.
SBSQ: What do think are the odds that Biden will actually step aside and allow for there to be an open convention? Like RBG and others before him, Biden seems stubborn on the issue, and I’m not sure if he’s actually capable of coming to terms with his own inability to run this campaign.
The question is not will Joe drop out. The question is, will his inner circle float is an alternative to him who has an obvious chance of being able to win. Joe thinks of himself as a bulwark against Trump. He will only drop out if he sees a viable alternative. Someone needs to get Polis down to the White House QUICK
I'm not surprised that people are very concerned. But given Reagan's recovery from his first debate against Mondale, I'm a bit surprised at the degree of certainty that Biden can't recover enough to win the election.
I do think you make a good point that, even if Biden could recover and win, it still might be better to select a different Democrat who would be better able to serve out a full term.
At this date in 1984 Ronald Reagan was at 55% approval. Biden is at 38%. In fact every incumbent first term who at this point was below 45% approvals - Carter, Bush Sr., Ford, and Trump lost and of those Biden's #s are below Trump and Ford.
Reagan might have had a bad debate but otherwise there is little comparison in the situations.
It's not to say that Biden can't recover, but comparing this debate to the first Reagan v Mondale debate, I can't see the parallel. In that one, Reagan took a beating, but he was at least actually debating, having a conversation, and he maintained a presence. Biden in last night's debate honestly reminded me of my grandfather who had Alzheimer's. It's going to take a miracle for Biden to turn things around at this point.
And I don't think the DNC picking another candidate would be the solution people think it will be. If they just unilaterally pick a candidate, I picture a backlash ala Hubert Humphrey. Basically, I hope I'm wrong, but my gut tells me that debate performance last night clinched the win for Trump in November.
Exactly exactly exactly!!!
No presidential candidate that I am aware of ever has ever appeared actively SENILE in a *debate*.
Biden’s performance was in a total new category. Like a Category 6 hurricane, an F6 tornado, or an 11 on the earthquake Richter scale.
I cannot believe the apologists on this one. Does it take a candidate to literally die on stage to open their eyes?
I find the behavior of Dems, and I am mostly one, very MAGA like in that they refuse to see the obvious whether it is Trump having lost an election or Biden being .beyond his expiration date. Dems seem willing to lose rather than admit the obvious. Whether this is just his ego or he is too far removed from reality to understand that he is going to lose, I dont know, but if you want a chuckle, Jeff Maurer has this very funny take: https://imightbewrong.substack.com/p/dont-worry-i-got-advice-about-preserving
Caleb, of course there are problems with picking a late candidate, and btw it is not the DNC, it would be the individual delegates committed to Joe Biden, that if Biden dropped out would be free to vote as they wish. But the alternative to lose to Trump is the worst of the options. The Hubert Humphrey analogy is a different story. To me 1968 was closer to 2016 where the angry left, the Chicago riots etc. sowed divisiveness and the left deserted Humphrey ( and of course he was associated with LBJ and Vietnam).
As a Democrat I feel our party should respect democracy. Few of us wanted Joe, I think the culprit was some kind of groupthink that you had to protect the incumbent. I think putting forth an 82 year old befuddled man is hurting the brand, regardless of whether the alternative will succeed. If the batter is injured, you put in a pinch hitter.
I'm not sure what you mean by "a backlash a la Hubert Humphrey." A backlash from whom? Swing voters? Diehard Biden supporters? Supporters of Harris/Newsom/Shapiro/whoever, if someone else gets the nod?
If you recall what happened back in1968, Humphrey almost certainly did better than LBJ would have, and he came from behind to very nearly defeat Nixon. Democrats could have done a lot worse.
It's not a direct comparison, but after Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, the pledged delegates and superdelegates conspired to go with the "safe" choice of the former VP. This caused many voters to feel betrayed as many would have preferred Eugene McCarthy as their second choice (because he was also anti-war), but the DNC went with Humphrey who was seen as an establishment candidate.
It wasn't many people that chose not to vote or to register a protest vote, but given that Nixon only won by a rough cumulative margin of about 500k votes (<1%), it very likely cost the Democrats the election. In a similar vein, given how small the margins are right now, making even a small fraction (<1%) of the base feel alienated will likely cost the election.
This is somewhat true. The primary process at that time was largely decided in state conventions where Humphrey was favored. But imo the current situation is not similar to the ideological split that was happening in 68, particularly over Vietnam, but just that we have an injured batter coming to the plate and want a pinch hitter. It is not that Gretchen Whitmer is miles apart from Biden, but that Biden is an 82 year old befuddled man with all the signs of losing the upcoming election.
It is difficult to parse out the election which, you are correct Nixon's popular vote margin was only 0.7% but the big factor was Wallace who took the deep South.