Hey Nate! Thanks for the instant reaction and hope (knowing that you own the rights to a number of the models) that RAPTOR continues to exist publicly in some form!
Yeah, I know it's annoying that the sports models have been down for a bit. They'll definitely be back in the long term. I'm just trying to figure out whether to break them off a and license (or sell) them separately or whether they're a part of bigger package of Whatever Comes Next.
Feels to me like the last bullet point is the whole story here. If they didn’t do this, he was (in all likelihood) going to the Heat. They pay a lot for a marginal upgrade but also prevent that. Good trade.
Still shocked at how this all came together, seemingly out of nowhere. I think the Bucks are definitely the team to beat...but man, this is like if Kanye won the election...so improbable but hilarious
Hi, Nate. I very much appreciate the +/- approach, but if the issue is the total effect of the Damian Lillard acquisition on the competitiveness of the Bucks, the loss of Grayson Allen has to be included. Though not a superstar, the latter is very much an above-median player. (Allen's Raptor and EPM ratings last season were +0.1 and +0.2.) Looking at those players currently on the Bucks roster likely to soak up Grayson Allen's possessions, the anticipated negative contributions could easily more than offset the supposed gains brought by Lillard in substituting for Holiday possessions. Perhaps the Bucks have additional moves to make to shore up this position. We shall see.
I agree that you have to make this trade but how does an upgrade of ~1.25 EPM/RAPTOR justify this much shortening of the odds? The Bucks got dismantled by the Heat last year and their key pieces are on the wrong side of the age curve... how can the books rate them as better bets to win the title than the Nuggets or Suns?
One framework I have found useful coming out of football analytics is differnetiating positions that rely on attacking vs defending, and the strong vs weak link nature of them.
The theory is that perimeter defense in basketball (especially in the playoffs) your defense is less defined by you best defenders as it is by your weakest links, because the offense can just orient it's attack through pick and roll or isolation to attack the weak link every time. On the flip side, your offense is defined more by your best player, since you can put the ball in their hands every play.
This is obviously a simplicification (defenses can also attack through rim protection and ball pressure) but I tend to think while Jrues defense is awesome, it could be less valuable contextuallu because opposing defenses could find ways to attack the bucks other weaker perimeter defenders. On the flip side, Lillard is beneficial because while he might be a weak link on defense, he's not worse than Allen was, plus he gives the bucks at far far better player at relentlessly attacking on offense
I think the last point about preventing the trade to the Heat is important, but as a Mavs fan that watched the Kyrie trade unfold last season (obviously not an apples to apples comparison especially since that was at the deadline while Dame has training camp and a full season with the Bucks), I do wonder how predictive offensive RAPTOR numbers can be when bringing together two excellent offensive players. Right after the Kyrie trade was made, RAPTOR actually gave the Mavs the best or second best odds to win the NBA finals. There were of course many problems with that roster, but to finish so far from that original prediction could I think show that RAPTOR didn't account for the fact that Luka and Kyrie separately on the Mavs and Nets is different than Luka and Kyrie together on the Mavs (and without DFS and Dinwiddie). It's certainly possible that Giannis and Dame work more symbiotically together than Luka and Kyrie. However, I can also imagine Dame and/or Giannis not being as productive together as they were individually last season. Giannis was 1st in usage % at 37.3 and Dame was 5th at 33.1. I'd have to think it will be harder for them to maintain such high usage rates playing together (especially since as Giannis has improved as a playmaker, the Bucks have run more and more offense through him). I think the Bucks offense will have to be significantly better given they're losing a very positive defender in Jrue and a positive defender in Grayson Allen for a negative defender in Dame.
Do you think the Bucks are also picking up a bargaining chip to hang over the Heat next year if they don't (or even do) get what they want out of Dame this year?
Hey Nate! Thanks for the instant reaction and hope (knowing that you own the rights to a number of the models) that RAPTOR continues to exist publicly in some form!
Yeah, I know it's annoying that the sports models have been down for a bit. They'll definitely be back in the long term. I'm just trying to figure out whether to break them off a and license (or sell) them separately or whether they're a part of bigger package of Whatever Comes Next.
License them! Easier to find ways to improve them and collaborate with them that way.
Also, thank you for this piece. As fun as political Nate is, basketball Nate is great too! 😄
Will we see the NFL playoff odds again? Or the College football one?
Feels to me like the last bullet point is the whole story here. If they didn’t do this, he was (in all likelihood) going to the Heat. They pay a lot for a marginal upgrade but also prevent that. Good trade.
Still shocked at how this all came together, seemingly out of nowhere. I think the Bucks are definitely the team to beat...but man, this is like if Kanye won the election...so improbable but hilarious
Hi, Nate. I very much appreciate the +/- approach, but if the issue is the total effect of the Damian Lillard acquisition on the competitiveness of the Bucks, the loss of Grayson Allen has to be included. Though not a superstar, the latter is very much an above-median player. (Allen's Raptor and EPM ratings last season were +0.1 and +0.2.) Looking at those players currently on the Bucks roster likely to soak up Grayson Allen's possessions, the anticipated negative contributions could easily more than offset the supposed gains brought by Lillard in substituting for Holiday possessions. Perhaps the Bucks have additional moves to make to shore up this position. We shall see.
I agree that you have to make this trade but how does an upgrade of ~1.25 EPM/RAPTOR justify this much shortening of the odds? The Bucks got dismantled by the Heat last year and their key pieces are on the wrong side of the age curve... how can the books rate them as better bets to win the title than the Nuggets or Suns?
Durability will be the question.
One framework I have found useful coming out of football analytics is differnetiating positions that rely on attacking vs defending, and the strong vs weak link nature of them.
The theory is that perimeter defense in basketball (especially in the playoffs) your defense is less defined by you best defenders as it is by your weakest links, because the offense can just orient it's attack through pick and roll or isolation to attack the weak link every time. On the flip side, your offense is defined more by your best player, since you can put the ball in their hands every play.
This is obviously a simplicification (defenses can also attack through rim protection and ball pressure) but I tend to think while Jrues defense is awesome, it could be less valuable contextuallu because opposing defenses could find ways to attack the bucks other weaker perimeter defenders. On the flip side, Lillard is beneficial because while he might be a weak link on defense, he's not worse than Allen was, plus he gives the bucks at far far better player at relentlessly attacking on offense
I think the last point about preventing the trade to the Heat is important, but as a Mavs fan that watched the Kyrie trade unfold last season (obviously not an apples to apples comparison especially since that was at the deadline while Dame has training camp and a full season with the Bucks), I do wonder how predictive offensive RAPTOR numbers can be when bringing together two excellent offensive players. Right after the Kyrie trade was made, RAPTOR actually gave the Mavs the best or second best odds to win the NBA finals. There were of course many problems with that roster, but to finish so far from that original prediction could I think show that RAPTOR didn't account for the fact that Luka and Kyrie separately on the Mavs and Nets is different than Luka and Kyrie together on the Mavs (and without DFS and Dinwiddie). It's certainly possible that Giannis and Dame work more symbiotically together than Luka and Kyrie. However, I can also imagine Dame and/or Giannis not being as productive together as they were individually last season. Giannis was 1st in usage % at 37.3 and Dame was 5th at 33.1. I'd have to think it will be harder for them to maintain such high usage rates playing together (especially since as Giannis has improved as a playmaker, the Bucks have run more and more offense through him). I think the Bucks offense will have to be significantly better given they're losing a very positive defender in Jrue and a positive defender in Grayson Allen for a negative defender in Dame.
Do you think the Bucks are also picking up a bargaining chip to hang over the Heat next year if they don't (or even do) get what they want out of Dame this year?