I'm not from Florida, so what do I know, but the best bet may be to lean into 'all politics is local' and focus on building momentum around things like the Miami mayoral win. Building the local infrastructure to support smaller, local races does a few things: it builds and develops your young talent, it starts to build some positive momentum and name recognition for those candidates that actually can impact the lives of their constituents in a meaningful way.
It may be at a point where you turn the state over to a super majority that can't really deflect its failures onto the opposition, while raising up the future from the grass roots.
Are there cases, also, where it makes sense to run 'independents' in the statewide race?
You should check out Run For Something, a group which has that philosophy for Democrats nationwide. I strongly agree that you have to build from the ground up, and pay attention to the less sexy races, to eventually win big at the higher levels. It takes a long time, but the Republicans did it in the aughts and it's currently paying off big time for them.
I wonder if there is anything to be said for, "The people of Florida think the state Republicans have done a good job".
Like, I get the partisan rat race is viewed as an infrastructure and organization and money and...etc, etc game, but there is just also the idea that people might be decently happy with the people in charge. Hard to overcome that.
Right, professional pols always think it's about infrastructure and organization and money --- but when they get to polling day, it turns out to be about votes, one by one.
People aren't happy. But they keep voting republican because taxes, or in the case of the sizable hispanic population, socialism. Hard to fight that. That's all
I live in Florida, ad I can say that the FDP has been incompetent for a long time. Doesn't help that they are perpetually broke, while the GOP can just call whichever billionaire, usually Ken Griffin or Stephen Ross, to give them whatever millions they want. Its bleak.
Also it doesn't help that young people are leaving in droves because there are no jobs outside of retail and hospitality, while the people that move in are all older hardcore right wingers looking for sunshine and no taxes. All my neighbors moved here within the last 5 years, and they are all pretty damn republicans. And I live in Broward, one of the last democratic counties left, but one that is quickly becoming republican, as is the rest of the state
Love the article! Hope we see some deep dives into other state party ecosystems in the future. May I suggest the California Republican Party, if we are looking for dysfunctional ones across the aisle, or the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, if we are looking for ones with great reputations.
I can’t help notice this downfall timeline also corresponds to Bernie Sanders on the campaign trail talking about how great Cuba’s socialists are. Are there any longer-term analyses of what that’s done to partisanship in Florida?
As a Minnesotan, what's so dumb with the MN GOP is that their state House candidates outperformed Trump in 2024 and ended up tied with the DFL in seats and vote share.
Voters have already signaled that they don’t like Trump, but they are not on board with the DFL either. If the MN GOP ran someone who wasn’t conspiratorial-right, it would be a layup. It's not like Florida where a majority actually likes Republicans. Walz currently has a negative approval rating according to KSTP, which makes him one of the most unpopular governors in the country.
But the MN GOP is still on track to bungle this like the last few times. In 2024 they ran a candidate who owed child support and back taxes — and had “Alex Jones was right” written in Sharpie on his forehead. In 2022, it was an anti-vax doctor trying to walk back his position to ban abortion.
This year they had a reset opportunity with a moderate like Chris Madel, but he left the race and left the Republican party after Trump sent ICE here. Citing that national Republicans had made it impossible for Republicans to win here. There was a narrow path to course-correct after 2 decades of their own self-inflicted wounds — until Trump delivered the final nail in the coffin, and forced the only moderate to realize that the opportunity had closed.
As a Minnesotan, a sound analysis. What I'm trying to get my head around is why the Minnesota GOP went crazy. Is their craziness a function of their defeats, or are their defeats a function of their craziness?
After the fraud scandal, I thought a sensible GOP candidate (DeMuth or Robbins would both be fine for this, I think) could have a shot at the governorship, even in the obviously blue midterm year, but the ICE deployment has clearly shattered that possibility. I've never seen the blue parts of the state this energized, and they have won a lot of converts from the red camp in the inner ring suburbs. So we are going to have at least two years of a renewed DFL trifecta.
P.S. memo to the rest of the country: Minnesota's Democratic party is known as the DFL, which means there is a three-letter acronym for both parties. Everyone in the country should adopt this, as it is extremely convenient.
My guess is that the DFL simply ran stronger candidates in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Tom Emmer and Jeff Johnson were mediocre candidates. Outmatched against a former senator (Mark Dayton) & a blue-dog Dem from a red district (Tim Walz).
I think the real inflection point was George Floyd’s death making global news, protests/riots, and shutdowns. The MN GOP was heavily incentivized to try grievance- and conspiracy-driven politics, which doesn’t play well in a highly educated state.
The MN GOP "seems" to be course-correcting. Mike Lindell only placed third in the precinct caucuses. If Michelle Tafoya (who is pro-choice) beats Royce White in the GOP Senate primary, it would signal a shift away from the era of unelectable far-right conspiracists. Even if they can't win this year, this will decide whether they can course-correct or are ideologically captured.
FDP doesn’t make it easy to vote for their candidates. I am in 6th cong district, Mike Waltz’s old district. I am historically registered republican but changed my party registration to democrat in 2024 because It was obvious Trump would take Florida in republican primary and I wanted to vote for someone other than Biden in primary. FDP canceled the presidential primary. At least the republicans got to vote, Trump won, but they at least got to vote. And in 2025 when Waltz resigned and open race for 6th district I was not happy with Randy Fine, he is a buffoon. But…. Josh Weil? In this district? Heavy retiree, heavy military, heavy military retiree, and FDP runs a progressive? I simply didn’t vote in special election. Weil may have overperformed but a lot of that was people sitting it out. Had FDP run more centrist candidate I would have been happy to vote for him but progressive just isn’t going to do it in this district.
I lived in Florida twice in my life. First when I was 3-4 years old and my parents moved from Connecticut to Miami, bought a rooming house and planned to live off the tourist trade. Then my Dad took a car and went looking for real work (while my Mom took care of the 3 young boys). At one point he called my Mom from Tennessee and told her he can't find a job and he was coming back. She sternly responded: "Be a mensch! You have a family to support. Keep looking for a job and don't come back until you find one." So he kept looking, while also doing some short-term or itinerant labor. And he kept driving west. Until he reached California. He found a job in aerospace development. Called Mom and headed back to Miami. We all drove across the country in their Pontiac.
Next step, we arrived in California, bought a house in Canoga Park, while Dad began his engineering job at Marquardt Aviation, which at that time was located about 20 miles from where we lived. It was located on the edge of Van Nuys Airport. Quite a daily commute from the west San Fernando Valley. But it paid off. We became Californians! And we remained there. Dad's next job after Marquardt was with AiResearch Mfg Co, an enterprise of the Garrett Corporation. He stayed with Garrett — as an aerospace engineer -- for the next 40 years.
Add: My second Florida residence was in the early 1970's, when I took a position as an assistant professor at Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL). I stayed there for 4 years, then our family relocated to Michigan — where we still reside. I took a position as Assistant Professor at Michigan State University, where I remained employed until I retired 39 years later. I had moved up the ladder to Associate, and then full Professor. I served two terms as a chair of the Department of Political Science at MSU.
I chose to run for the Florida House against Chris Sprowls in 2016. Speaker to be in the future. Because he was forced to defend his district (first time ), he spent way too much more than he would have had I not opposed him. He spent roughly $350k (I heard rumors the GOP actually spent closer to $1M). Who knows, but the point is had he run unopposed in 2016, all the money he spent in Pinellas County would have been diverted elsewhere. To more competitive races in places like Orlando. I subscribe to the “f…ked up state party” basis for failure. No bench, no viable voter registration, no money, squandering the money it does have, etc.
Eli, maybe one point of entry is how can FDP take the best advantage of the likely blue wave in 2026? Are there particular races that might swing D in that scenario?
Ohio and Iowa used to be quintessential swing states, but they have swung to the GOP as much as Florida has. And now OH may not be losing a seat in 2030.
The Dems' biggest hopes have to be GA and NC and AZ--all trending purple and in line to pick up a seat. AK is up there too, but too few congressional seats/electoral votes.
Keep one eye open on the following indigo states: ME, NH, NJ, MN.
Of course, we'll have to see how things look post-Trump. Trump is sui generis and I highly doubt someone else is going to be able to do what he did, both good and bad, for the GOP. Low-propensity GOP voters may lose their reason to go to the polls, but if the GOP nominates a normie, that normie will seem extra-normie by comparison--especially if the Dems think they can continue to trend leftward.
Miami Mayor has done well in winning twice as nonpartisan democrat. Could she have a chance as governor or senate candidate-she brings a strong track record for winning and governing
I think all mentions of Andrew Gillum should include the some variant of the phrase the meth fuelled orgy guy.
It says something about candidate selection.
He did sort of break the top Number One rule of politics: Never get caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
Made famous by former LA Governor, Edwin Edwards.
Well it was a dead man, so I guess technically he didn’t break it, though only by making it worse.
I'm not from Florida, so what do I know, but the best bet may be to lean into 'all politics is local' and focus on building momentum around things like the Miami mayoral win. Building the local infrastructure to support smaller, local races does a few things: it builds and develops your young talent, it starts to build some positive momentum and name recognition for those candidates that actually can impact the lives of their constituents in a meaningful way.
It may be at a point where you turn the state over to a super majority that can't really deflect its failures onto the opposition, while raising up the future from the grass roots.
Are there cases, also, where it makes sense to run 'independents' in the statewide race?
You should check out Run For Something, a group which has that philosophy for Democrats nationwide. I strongly agree that you have to build from the ground up, and pay attention to the less sexy races, to eventually win big at the higher levels. It takes a long time, but the Republicans did it in the aughts and it's currently paying off big time for them.
I wonder if there is anything to be said for, "The people of Florida think the state Republicans have done a good job".
Like, I get the partisan rat race is viewed as an infrastructure and organization and money and...etc, etc game, but there is just also the idea that people might be decently happy with the people in charge. Hard to overcome that.
Right, professional pols always think it's about infrastructure and organization and money --- but when they get to polling day, it turns out to be about votes, one by one.
People aren't happy. But they keep voting republican because taxes, or in the case of the sizable hispanic population, socialism. Hard to fight that. That's all
So you say.
I live in Florida, ad I can say that the FDP has been incompetent for a long time. Doesn't help that they are perpetually broke, while the GOP can just call whichever billionaire, usually Ken Griffin or Stephen Ross, to give them whatever millions they want. Its bleak.
Also it doesn't help that young people are leaving in droves because there are no jobs outside of retail and hospitality, while the people that move in are all older hardcore right wingers looking for sunshine and no taxes. All my neighbors moved here within the last 5 years, and they are all pretty damn republicans. And I live in Broward, one of the last democratic counties left, but one that is quickly becoming republican, as is the rest of the state
It also didn't help that Florida mega-ambulance-chaser John Morgan put his checkbook away after Harris was nominated.
Love the article! Hope we see some deep dives into other state party ecosystems in the future. May I suggest the California Republican Party, if we are looking for dysfunctional ones across the aisle, or the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, if we are looking for ones with great reputations.
Yeah, an interesting analysis of the CAGOP would be fascinating. They've got to be one of the most dysfunctional parties in the country.
I can’t help notice this downfall timeline also corresponds to Bernie Sanders on the campaign trail talking about how great Cuba’s socialists are. Are there any longer-term analyses of what that’s done to partisanship in Florida?
Would love one of these about the Minnesota GOP, which (despite nominal purple-state status) has failed to win a single statewide race since 2006.
As a Minnesotan, what's so dumb with the MN GOP is that their state House candidates outperformed Trump in 2024 and ended up tied with the DFL in seats and vote share.
Voters have already signaled that they don’t like Trump, but they are not on board with the DFL either. If the MN GOP ran someone who wasn’t conspiratorial-right, it would be a layup. It's not like Florida where a majority actually likes Republicans. Walz currently has a negative approval rating according to KSTP, which makes him one of the most unpopular governors in the country.
But the MN GOP is still on track to bungle this like the last few times. In 2024 they ran a candidate who owed child support and back taxes — and had “Alex Jones was right” written in Sharpie on his forehead. In 2022, it was an anti-vax doctor trying to walk back his position to ban abortion.
This year they had a reset opportunity with a moderate like Chris Madel, but he left the race and left the Republican party after Trump sent ICE here. Citing that national Republicans had made it impossible for Republicans to win here. There was a narrow path to course-correct after 2 decades of their own self-inflicted wounds — until Trump delivered the final nail in the coffin, and forced the only moderate to realize that the opportunity had closed.
As a Minnesotan, a sound analysis. What I'm trying to get my head around is why the Minnesota GOP went crazy. Is their craziness a function of their defeats, or are their defeats a function of their craziness?
After the fraud scandal, I thought a sensible GOP candidate (DeMuth or Robbins would both be fine for this, I think) could have a shot at the governorship, even in the obviously blue midterm year, but the ICE deployment has clearly shattered that possibility. I've never seen the blue parts of the state this energized, and they have won a lot of converts from the red camp in the inner ring suburbs. So we are going to have at least two years of a renewed DFL trifecta.
P.S. memo to the rest of the country: Minnesota's Democratic party is known as the DFL, which means there is a three-letter acronym for both parties. Everyone in the country should adopt this, as it is extremely convenient.
My guess is that the DFL simply ran stronger candidates in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Tom Emmer and Jeff Johnson were mediocre candidates. Outmatched against a former senator (Mark Dayton) & a blue-dog Dem from a red district (Tim Walz).
I think the real inflection point was George Floyd’s death making global news, protests/riots, and shutdowns. The MN GOP was heavily incentivized to try grievance- and conspiracy-driven politics, which doesn’t play well in a highly educated state.
The MN GOP "seems" to be course-correcting. Mike Lindell only placed third in the precinct caucuses. If Michelle Tafoya (who is pro-choice) beats Royce White in the GOP Senate primary, it would signal a shift away from the era of unelectable far-right conspiracists. Even if they can't win this year, this will decide whether they can course-correct or are ideologically captured.
FDP doesn’t make it easy to vote for their candidates. I am in 6th cong district, Mike Waltz’s old district. I am historically registered republican but changed my party registration to democrat in 2024 because It was obvious Trump would take Florida in republican primary and I wanted to vote for someone other than Biden in primary. FDP canceled the presidential primary. At least the republicans got to vote, Trump won, but they at least got to vote. And in 2025 when Waltz resigned and open race for 6th district I was not happy with Randy Fine, he is a buffoon. But…. Josh Weil? In this district? Heavy retiree, heavy military, heavy military retiree, and FDP runs a progressive? I simply didn’t vote in special election. Weil may have overperformed but a lot of that was people sitting it out. Had FDP run more centrist candidate I would have been happy to vote for him but progressive just isn’t going to do it in this district.
I lived in Florida twice in my life. First when I was 3-4 years old and my parents moved from Connecticut to Miami, bought a rooming house and planned to live off the tourist trade. Then my Dad took a car and went looking for real work (while my Mom took care of the 3 young boys). At one point he called my Mom from Tennessee and told her he can't find a job and he was coming back. She sternly responded: "Be a mensch! You have a family to support. Keep looking for a job and don't come back until you find one." So he kept looking, while also doing some short-term or itinerant labor. And he kept driving west. Until he reached California. He found a job in aerospace development. Called Mom and headed back to Miami. We all drove across the country in their Pontiac.
Next step, we arrived in California, bought a house in Canoga Park, while Dad began his engineering job at Marquardt Aviation, which at that time was located about 20 miles from where we lived. It was located on the edge of Van Nuys Airport. Quite a daily commute from the west San Fernando Valley. But it paid off. We became Californians! And we remained there. Dad's next job after Marquardt was with AiResearch Mfg Co, an enterprise of the Garrett Corporation. He stayed with Garrett — as an aerospace engineer -- for the next 40 years.
Add: My second Florida residence was in the early 1970's, when I took a position as an assistant professor at Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL). I stayed there for 4 years, then our family relocated to Michigan — where we still reside. I took a position as Assistant Professor at Michigan State University, where I remained employed until I retired 39 years later. I had moved up the ladder to Associate, and then full Professor. I served two terms as a chair of the Department of Political Science at MSU.
I chose to run for the Florida House against Chris Sprowls in 2016. Speaker to be in the future. Because he was forced to defend his district (first time ), he spent way too much more than he would have had I not opposed him. He spent roughly $350k (I heard rumors the GOP actually spent closer to $1M). Who knows, but the point is had he run unopposed in 2016, all the money he spent in Pinellas County would have been diverted elsewhere. To more competitive races in places like Orlando. I subscribe to the “f…ked up state party” basis for failure. No bench, no viable voter registration, no money, squandering the money it does have, etc.
Eli, maybe one point of entry is how can FDP take the best advantage of the likely blue wave in 2026? Are there particular races that might swing D in that scenario?
Ohio and Iowa used to be quintessential swing states, but they have swung to the GOP as much as Florida has. And now OH may not be losing a seat in 2030.
The Dems' biggest hopes have to be GA and NC and AZ--all trending purple and in line to pick up a seat. AK is up there too, but too few congressional seats/electoral votes.
Keep one eye open on the following indigo states: ME, NH, NJ, MN.
Of course, we'll have to see how things look post-Trump. Trump is sui generis and I highly doubt someone else is going to be able to do what he did, both good and bad, for the GOP. Low-propensity GOP voters may lose their reason to go to the polls, but if the GOP nominates a normie, that normie will seem extra-normie by comparison--especially if the Dems think they can continue to trend leftward.
Good article.
I wouldn't worry too much…a few more glaciers melt, problem solved….
They'll just move a few hundred miles north & turn Georgia back into a red state.
The scrolling of this article from the app is terrible. I can’t get out of one of the graphs to read the rest.
Miami Mayor has done well in winning twice as nonpartisan democrat. Could she have a chance as governor or senate candidate-she brings a strong track record for winning and governing