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I think the inflation of 2021-2022 really messed with people. It's easy to say, "Inflation was higher in the late 1970s and early 1980s and people didn't mind as much!" But that leaves out a key detail: people were much more used to inflation in 1980 than in 2021. Inflation went from 1% to 8% in under two years! That's a momentous change. No living American has witnessed inflation going up by 600% in such a short period. I think going from 1% to 8% inflation had a much larger impact on people's psyche than when it went from 6% to 12% in the 1970s. People are still dealing with sticker shock everywhere, even though they've had a year or two to adjust.

Fortunately for Biden, absent some new crisis, I think in the next six months we are going to see consumer sentiment increase, as people finally settle into the new price regime.

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Biden's age is likely more of a problem because he has made 'competency' a core theme - as in, vote for me because the other guy is crazy. People already know Trump is crazy, or forgetful, or generally makes things up, so when he confuses Hungary and Turkey it doesn't move the dial in the same way. Biden, by contrast, preached normalcy, competence, and the general ability to do the job as the basic reason to vote for him. Memory lapses or questions of competency hit harder if competence is your main argument. It'd be like if Bill Clinton attacked Trump for cheating on his wife - yes, Trump is a philanderer, but come on man. And Biden campaign/affiliate/supporter responses like 'but Trump is even more unfit' aren't exactly a persuasive response.

I'd suggest that, consequently, Republican voters are less likely to swing away from Trump since this isn't new for him. In contrast, Biden's coalition perhaps sees his lapses and is similarly frustrated that this is the best option Democrats can put forward (not to mention the patronizing responses from some Biden officials to either dismiss the concern outright or simply expect that Democrats just get in line with the guy). I'd speculate that those voters will return to the fold once it's very clear that it's Biden v Trump again.

Also, uncharitably, Biden just looks old - even in photos put out by his campaign he does not look 'hale' and ready to run the country for another four years. To be clear, Trump doesn't look like a college footballer and there are photos where he looks awful, but his mugshot, for example, does not project the same age as Biden's birthday photo.

I offer this opinion as pure speculation - no numbers, no research, so take that for what it's worth.

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The people aren't changing their minds because they don't trust Biden. Any honest person will tell the truth about the fact that it's hard to trust this administration when you aren't sure who has been pulling the strings. We didn't elect them, so we don't know what their priorities might be. As someone who saw Biden as a centrist and has been shell-shocked by his hard left turn on DEI, immigration, and rhetoric, it has always made more sense that this is not the Biden we thought was going to be President. It's hard to trust someone you can't see and didn't elect. Especially when they keep asking for money when the deficit is the 2nd highest expenditure.

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I am worried about Biden's age. I am worried he will make it to the end of his second term if, God willing, he wins.

I also do not think he has dementia, and am tired of the gaffe related press.

I have said it before and will say it again: the media is doing an awful job at covering Biden's age. Not because it's unimportant or "her emails!" or anything but because the press is doing an awful job at illuminating us about Biden's actual fitness for office. Yes, Biden gaffed the President of Egypt for the President of Mexico. These kinds of gaffes happen universally among young people, old people and different political parties. That SAME DAY: Mike Johnson screwed Iran up with Israel and Trump screwed up the Prime Minister of Hungary with the Prime Minister of Turkey. Nobody cared.

Which brings me first to the press conference Biden held. He gaffed, but you know what? His answer was smart, cogent and offered a sober analysis of his actions. Nobody cared about that: they just cared about the gaffe. So instead of illuminating us on Biden's thinking: they just screamed at the shiny object. This makes us less smart, not smarter (and notice: I am not saying the story was wrong or even that they covered it 'wrong' but that they didn't actually make us smarter).

I would love to know more about Biden's fitness for office, and to that end: show me the reports of Biden not waking up to learn about an international crisis. Show me where Biden royally screwed up a decision because he's old and confused (not that he made the wrong political choice: where did he think he was talking about Mexico and was actually talking about Egypt and made the wrong call). Where did his mangling in a conversation with Republicans result in a bill not getting signed?

I want to know: report THAT, find THAT out. Don't just keep scoring gaffes, because all that does is hide the actual information we need. If Biden is being hidden in a closet before he meets with Democrats on the Hill: that's news. If Biden accidentally says Charlie Chaplin instead of Chuck Schumer and errs in a gaffe: that's the shiny object.

But hey, the media doesn't actually exist to illuminate so I assume I'll die waiting.

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Any thoughts on RFK Jr's ability/likelihood to have a significant impact on the final verdict?

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Biden is losing because he’s missing in action. The Super Bowl interview with CBS, not Fox, could have helped placate his naysayers if he did well; yet Biden chose not to show up in an election year, when Trump is everywhere, and sucking up all the oxygen in the room; setting the narrative.

Biden has accomplished a lot more than any sitting president since Johnson and FDR; yet, more than 60% of Americans think Trump would be better for the economy and for international affairs. Why?

This is Biden’s predicament: he doesn’t know how to promote himself, and most of the democrats trying to disseminate his messages, are being forced to play defense about his age and cognitive abilities, so nothing gets through.

So the only one who can save Joe, is Joe, and right now he’s doing a piss, poor job! And all we hear are crickets!

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Its amazing how many people dont understand inflation. I get its because we simply havent had high inflation since the 1970's, but anyone 50 or older, who went through it, should. Inflation is devastating, and when it skyrockets in such a short period of time, it doesnt give the populace a chance to adjust. The inflation index measures the RATE of price increase/decrease, not actual prices. So when some folks say, inflation is down and we should all be happy about it, thats just the rate. Prices are sky high, havent come down. They are STILL increasing, albeit at a lower rate, but STILL twice the rate they were pre Biden taking office. The cause of the 2020 spike was threefold. First, shutting down the economy for Covid. That put thousands of businesses, manufacturers, and suppliers out of business. But domnt ever forget, it didnt have to be that way. It was Trump who wanted to re-open by Eater 2020, but was lambasted by Democrats who declared he was a tyrant and didnt have the power to do that. He said "America wasnt built to be shutdown", but Democrat mayors and governors kept their cites and states shut down for over a year. Then Democrats passed trillions in new borrowing and spending to save the economy they destroyed. Then to add gasoline to the fire, Joe Biden declared he would reverse much of Trumps pro energy policies, many by Executive Action Day One. He screamed from the rooftops multiple times - "no new drilling!" Since oil trades like any other financial instrument, it exploded the day after Biden won, doubling in price in 4 short months. The price of oil is built into everything we buy. And thats why, so far, Joe Biden's low price of oil is Trumps high, after the US became the worlds largest producer in Aug 2018. In order for prices to come down, we need a recession, and were not getting it because government spending is artificially keeping the economy strong. Bidens eceonomists know that if spending comes down, we get a recession - right into the election. thats what happens when you have people in charge that dont know what theyre doing. They opened the Pandora's Box of inflation, and there's no good way out. Trump lived and breathed business. He understands this. He was right all along - about EVERYTHING

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He’s lost the left in his coalition because his policies in the legislation he’s gotten passed haven’t done enough for them, and bc of the war in Israel. He’s also losing moderates on immigration/the border

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I think he has none of the skills needed to compete in the modern attention economy. He only ever seems to go viral accidentally, and for negative reasons.

I say that sadly, as I think *being president* is a serious job for serious people and I appreciate how Biden has handled it. But *getting elected* requires something different these days, unfortunately for us all.

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Use of credit cards has increased and the interest has soared. I think this is hurting many people when they pay monthly bills.

People know JB's connection to Delaware as well as his denial of bankruptcy for student loans when he was Delaware Senator in spite of his support of loan forgiveness all. Look at JB's Delaware record as Senator.

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It's an unprecedented situation where two people with economic records as president can be compared by voters. A "Trump economy" cannot be portrayed as a scary hypothetical in the way that incumbent presidents have always done to dismiss challengers. The conventional and very effective "fear of the unknown" weapon isn't available to Team Biden.

The Trump economic record was a real and recent thing. People remember it and can make their own comparisons.

Maybe a lot of them liked it better?

Maybe it looks co-equal or better than the Biden economy to a lot if voters?

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The reality is that Biden has never been popular on a national scale. He ran unsuccessfully for President many times. He finally broke through in 2020 but really it was a protest against Trump. He just has never been viewed as a strong and inspiring leader, even within much of the Democratic Party. That sentiment isn’t changing, especially as he is obviously in decline.

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Mike,

I am an 84-year-old retired physician. I have displayed some cognitive decline. I have undergone cognitive testing. This was there impression: cognitive decline.

I strongly believe that Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential election. he could withdraw before the Democratic convention and the convention determine who the nomination should be. This is the way nominees were picked when I was young.

I would be very angry at both Biden and his team if he does not withdraw. I think that the special council was a patriot in his report about Biden.

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We now have second effect inflation as well as things like insurance have skyrocketed in price due to cost rises with materials in that period.

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Approximately 20% inflation since 2021 is hard to white-wash away.

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It's age, age, age age! And Biden looks and acts old. Biden was a mediocre candidate when he previously ran for president before being annointed by Obama and is reprising those runs. There's no excuse for the Democrats simply allowing this narcissistic old man to dictate the risks of this election. Democrats criticize Trump for being anti-democratic and then force a candidate that has no real constituency on the electorate.

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