It's probably too late to stop Trump. But some predictions on who might be the next candidates to drop out.
Wait...you're saying there's a primary race happening now?
The only way Trump doesn’t get nominated is if he strokes out while choking on a Quarterpounder. Today’s Republican voters don’t just tolerate him. They love him. His grifting, immigrant bashing, sexually assaulting, Black women denigrating, pro Putin isolationist, corrupt, seditious coup-plotting authoritarianism isn’t a bug. It’s a feature.
I'm going to take a slightly contrarian position to the general thrust of the comments here. I don't believe that "all Republicans love Trump" - not at all. He's a demagogue who has an extremely devoted following of people who have either gullibly fallen for his shtick or are just far-right politically. And that puts other Republicans - the folks MAGA-types like to call "RINOs" in a tough spot.
My belief is that there are plenty of moderate Republicans - including people in office right now - who would love to see Trump go away (whether that means prison or dead, doesn't really matter - whatever takes him out of the picture). But these people are in a tough position. If you're a Republican voter are you going to vote for Biden? Or any other Democrat? Or do you hold your nose and vote for Trump? Third-party isn't going to get it done and we all know that. I mean, all the RFK Jr talk revolves around whether his candidacy draws more votes from Biden or from Trump. No one thinks he can actually win.
If you're a candidate for, let's say the House, and you know you'll have a hard time winning your district if you alienate the MAGA folks, do you stand on principle, be honest and say "I don't like Trump and here's why" or do you pretend to back him (or at least stay as non-committal as possible)... just so you can get elected? These are politicians, so we probably can guess the answer there.
Ultimately I think the idea that all but one of the non-Trump candidates should get out. They won't, but it would present a chance to actually see if the Republicans are as bent on Trump as the Democrats believe they are. Right now all the Republicans who don't like Trump have a slew of people to choose from and it simply splits the "opposition" vote. Would a viable non-Trump candidate (and I agree with Nate that it's probably Haley or maybe DeSantis) actually be able to win some primaries in a one-on-one with Trump? My guess is yes. There are also probably some respondents who say Trump simply because he's leading. Why say I support Haley when she has no chance? Easier to go with the herd. Which of course feeds the narrative that Republicans love Trump.
If there were a Democrat who was also a very popular far-left demagogue, I suspect the Dems would have a similar problem. And in a way they do: because Biden's the incumbent, few Democrats would have the cojones to outright say he shouldn't run and back it up by challenging him the way Ted Kennedy did with Carter in 1980. Only RFK Jr did that this time around, and he got so little traction he went independent.
Nate. Silver. Fans. Demand. Live. Sports. Predictions. Like. 538. Had.
The most likely way for Trump to lose the nomination is to die before the convention.
Even going to jail wouldn't do it -- that would probably make him *more* likely to win.
You never want to say 'this time is different' but it also seems like we're building up massive tension on a fault line and are due for a major earthquake. Neither Biden nor Trump looks remotely electable, and yet there's no plausible narrative of how anyone else ends up as president. If Biden wins I don't think Republicans will tolerate it; they barely did the last time and they're barely concealing intent to revolt now. If Trump wins the Republican plans for governing are more radical than anything we've seen in our lifetimes and I'm skeptical human rights, civil rights, the rule of law, and democracy, survive it.
So the question for data journalism is, is there a more robust way to ask these questions, since I'm not interested in replies of 'lol, cry lib'. What datasets should we be looking at, what precedents do we have? In other words is there a way to test my hypothesis that we are in an extreme outlier?
You called it! Now I’m thinking I need to go double the money I had on your basketball bets
Republicans found the glitch in democracy. Just create so much noise that people opt out. It's the same thing the cults do. Make it so your on group is clearly insane and the normal folks run away and the ones who self select will do literally anything you tell them. It's just shocking that a third of all people are willing to join this cult that has said every lie and despicable thing possible.
How much do other factors like "I wanna be Trump's VP" or "I'm just practicing for 2028" affect when a candidate drops out?
Trump way ahead in the Republican primaries is one thing. Trump also running neck and neck (or even slightly ahead) with Biden in general 2024 polling is the more interesting phenomenon.
Obviously Trump's most likely to win the GOP nomination. But I think DeSantis' chances are being underestimated. There's a decent chance that he'll overperform in Iowa and New Hampshire and then use the momentum to make it a two-man race.
Despite his flailing campaign, DeSantis continues to rack up endorsements from local GOP elected officials in the early states. That combined with on the ground presence may help him do better than expected.
Surely they’re waiting to see if he ends up in prison first? You wouldn’t want to be the candidate who dropped out just before Trump was forced to leave the race.
Do you think Trump’s potential conviction affects the model?
And there goes Scott. Next up is DeSantis if your streak continues.
I often reference the old podcast ShitTown when I talk to my liberal friends about how anyone could support Trump. There are a lot of disaffected people out there, who are disaffected for legitimate reasons because the system *does* *not* *work* for them; it's set up for people of means, not wage-earners (especially low wager-earners). America's a great place to make money when you have money. It's *really* hard to hike up the hill, though. So, sure, burn it all down.
The problem is, the Republican Party and Trump in particular are not the saviors in this situation. Quite the reverse, actually, as was evidenced by the massive tax cut for corporations and wealthy people that was passed and their steadfast opposition to social welfare programs and any effort to control global warming. Neither are the Democrats necessarily, but the Democratic Party is at least responsive sometimes to its actual constituents. 2016 reminded me a lot of 2000 - who cares, they're both the same! - but we saw what happened with that. And 2020 and 2024 are kind of feeling like 2012 to me - backlash! fight the power / Tea Party stuff. Except as then, the backlash is against the wrong people. (It's also a lot weaker).