"It’s always possible that pollsters are missing Trump voters,
but if they don’t show up to vote, that won’t matter for Republicans next year."
The key takeaway for why polls should be very careful trying to 'adjust' for the 2026 election without being acutely aware of why their results were off, and why accepting that Trump outperformed his polling by about 2% of the vote shouldn't be taken into account when Trump is not on the ballot.
But enthusiasm should be watched very carefully by both sides going forward. Trump's methodology involves stirring the pot and whipping up his national audience, so weak enthusiasm for Trump could lead to supporters more likely to be burned out by such tactics.
Democratic enthusiasm is weak, but they don't have a singular leader who incites the base, making them less likely to be burned out by similar tactics. Hell, imagine a FDR type walking up to a microphone, grabbing it, and saying 'No More Fundraising Emails.' The Democrats would lose their minds, and the resulting 'celebration' would be like Philadelphia after an eagles game, and there wouldn't be a DNC official safe from being tossed in the river.
Another possible presentation of the weak/strong support graph: show it as a filled line graph. That way, we can visually add together different groups. (e.g., adding together weak and strong support, all but strongly oppose, etc.)
Seems like the trends are clear. The attempt at a positive vision on tariffs has largely flopped - Trump should have focused his trade fire on China not our allies - and the Democrats / business community have succeeded in linking tariffs to inflation, which isn’t hard to do. The administration in its chaotic way seems to be responding to the polls. But some of the damage is done especially if we don’t see meaningful trade breakthroughs with Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico. By meaningful I mean reflecting a choice to ride with the US over the CCP on trade. Whether or not one agrees with disentanglement from China, and I have doubts as to whether Cold War 2 makes sense for the US medium term, its a coherent strategy American voters and our allies abroad surely expected and understand.
The problem with an approval/disapproval rating taken from a selection of all voters is Trump is always going to lose because he's so polarizing. If you don't like Trump you won't approve of anything he does. What matters most is how Republicans voters feel. If you don't like him and didn't vote for him in the first place hating him more now doesn’t matter.
From the recent Emerson College poll cited in the dashboard:
“Trump’s base of Republican voters consider his second term to be more of a success, 86% to 14%, whereas Democrats consider it a failure, 88% to 12%,” Kimball added.
Plus from the same poll when asked if they would vote the same way now as in 2024 94% of Republicans said yes vs 93% of Democrats giving Trump a 48%-47% advantage.
It would be nice to see approval rating broken down by party affiliation.
It's rather comical watching Republican partisans grab the goalposts and sprint away with them for the the last 100+ days to create some way of labeling a failure of historical proportions as anything else.
Trumps approval among Republicans as president vs. Harris's approval among Democrats as (checks notes) not the president, is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
“What matters most is how Republicans voters feel.”
What matters most is how voters feel. Even general sentiment is important. If he won 2024 at (and I’m making up numbers here) 49-44 approve/disapprove and we know the breakdown of strongly disapprove is say 38%, if the shift today is more substantial this has implications on if he’s above water with a majority of folks today, and how they like how he’s implementing his policies. Republicans aren’t the only voters and they aren’t the only ones who sway public opinion (although too many folks get their cues from right wing media).
Trump won 49.8% vs 48.3%. So if his support is holding in that base as we go toward the midterms but the Democrat support is softening it's going to make a difference. The Democrats have no "spiritual" leader right now and we know that Trump is excellent at rallying the troops.
"It’s always possible that pollsters are missing Trump voters,
but if they don’t show up to vote, that won’t matter for Republicans next year."
The key takeaway for why polls should be very careful trying to 'adjust' for the 2026 election without being acutely aware of why their results were off, and why accepting that Trump outperformed his polling by about 2% of the vote shouldn't be taken into account when Trump is not on the ballot.
But enthusiasm should be watched very carefully by both sides going forward. Trump's methodology involves stirring the pot and whipping up his national audience, so weak enthusiasm for Trump could lead to supporters more likely to be burned out by such tactics.
Democratic enthusiasm is weak, but they don't have a singular leader who incites the base, making them less likely to be burned out by similar tactics. Hell, imagine a FDR type walking up to a microphone, grabbing it, and saying 'No More Fundraising Emails.' The Democrats would lose their minds, and the resulting 'celebration' would be like Philadelphia after an eagles game, and there wouldn't be a DNC official safe from being tossed in the river.
Another possible presentation of the weak/strong support graph: show it as a filled line graph. That way, we can visually add together different groups. (e.g., adding together weak and strong support, all but strongly oppose, etc.)
Seems like the trends are clear. The attempt at a positive vision on tariffs has largely flopped - Trump should have focused his trade fire on China not our allies - and the Democrats / business community have succeeded in linking tariffs to inflation, which isn’t hard to do. The administration in its chaotic way seems to be responding to the polls. But some of the damage is done especially if we don’t see meaningful trade breakthroughs with Europe, Japan, Canada, and Mexico. By meaningful I mean reflecting a choice to ride with the US over the CCP on trade. Whether or not one agrees with disentanglement from China, and I have doubts as to whether Cold War 2 makes sense for the US medium term, its a coherent strategy American voters and our allies abroad surely expected and understand.
The problem with an approval/disapproval rating taken from a selection of all voters is Trump is always going to lose because he's so polarizing. If you don't like Trump you won't approve of anything he does. What matters most is how Republicans voters feel. If you don't like him and didn't vote for him in the first place hating him more now doesn’t matter.
From the recent Emerson College poll cited in the dashboard:
“Trump’s base of Republican voters consider his second term to be more of a success, 86% to 14%, whereas Democrats consider it a failure, 88% to 12%,” Kimball added.
Plus from the same poll when asked if they would vote the same way now as in 2024 94% of Republicans said yes vs 93% of Democrats giving Trump a 48%-47% advantage.
It would be nice to see approval rating broken down by party affiliation.
It's rather comical watching Republican partisans grab the goalposts and sprint away with them for the the last 100+ days to create some way of labeling a failure of historical proportions as anything else.
Trumps approval among Republicans as president vs. Harris's approval among Democrats as (checks notes) not the president, is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Don't get me wrong. I'm definitely in the Disapproval column. I think he's doing a lousy job on the economy especially.
“What matters most is how Republicans voters feel.”
What matters most is how voters feel. Even general sentiment is important. If he won 2024 at (and I’m making up numbers here) 49-44 approve/disapprove and we know the breakdown of strongly disapprove is say 38%, if the shift today is more substantial this has implications on if he’s above water with a majority of folks today, and how they like how he’s implementing his policies. Republicans aren’t the only voters and they aren’t the only ones who sway public opinion (although too many folks get their cues from right wing media).
Trump won 49.8% vs 48.3%. So if his support is holding in that base as we go toward the midterms but the Democrat support is softening it's going to make a difference. The Democrats have no "spiritual" leader right now and we know that Trump is excellent at rallying the troops.