644 Comments

I haven’t been the biggest fan of your analysis lately (just being honest - I think it’s drifted more towards punditry and a bit away from data. You were the one that got me into Statistics as a teenager and eventually towards my PhD.

With that said… this article is fantastic. Because you are one of the rare few being honest about what we can all see. Biden is senile, and he’s not capable of handling this job now or especially over the next 5 years.

And like you said: if we are wrong, prove it. But they won’t, because they can’t. Or if they try to prove it, it’ll end up being something scripted again that they try to pass off as evidence of mental acuity.

Thank you for writing this up

Expand full comment

You claim "Biden is senile."

Baloney. You don't even know to use the correct term. My wife has dementia and is in a memory care facility. I visit her every day and see dementia (what you mistakenly call senility) in person and up close with her and all her acquaintances there.

Joe Biden is an older man and has occasionally memory slips. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less.

I turn 87 next month. I see various cerebral impairments in my peers all the time. You're obviously quite young and lack real world experience. (The fact that you were reading Nate Silver as a teenager reveals this. I was a teenager thirty years before Nate Silver was even born.)

Expand full comment

Biden couldn’t write anything close to what you just wrote. He wouldn’t even finish a paragraph. He can’t speak off the cuff, he can’t remember when his son died, he doesn’t know the president of Mexico.

Call it whatever you want, but he’s not fit for the job and 3/4 of this incredibly polarized country agree.

Expand full comment

>couldn’t write anything close to what you just wrote

You have no way of knowing this. You're just repeating GOP/Fox/Newsmax talking points.

Expand full comment

Oh for goodness’ sake, Albert. You are personalizing a political situation. Perhaps Joe Biden is not as badly off as the people you see in the “ memory care” unit, but that hardly says that he is fit for the job he holds. I am not quite as old as you but certainly closer to you than to Anony. Biden has much more than a few memory slips. He has many slips. He has trouble navigating his way. He is very easily angered. He has many days off and his days on are very short. Biden has never been known for his brain power but this is simply sad. I would like to see more sympathy toward his situation.

Expand full comment

You're relying on cherry-picking. That time he confused the name of Mexico's president was in a conference where he otherwise spoke fine, but people like you ignore the rest because it doesn't fit your narrative. The fact that he's generally saying things correctly means that gaffes like that aren't representative.

Expand full comment

People like me? You don’t know me. I did not speak of the president of Mexico. But, “ people like you” is kinda a loaded expression. Don’t you think?

Expand full comment

Let's hear your evidence that he's not fit for the job that he's currently holding and has for the last 3 years, drama-free. You're speaking as if he's not the freaking President right now, and has been a solid one at that.

Seriously. Who are you even speaking to right now?

Expand full comment

He's been one of the shittiest presidents we've ever had. Pretty much the only PotUS he looks good next to is DJT.

Expand full comment

So, no evidence. Got it.

Expand full comment

It doesn't matter if he is a slobbering half wit. He is good enough for government work and well able to, once again, beat the bete noir of Western civilization. Biden, Obama,Bush and Clinton were establishment figures, like all presidents. Donny is the candidate of Koch and the enemy of order, progress and decency. There is no rational defense of this malignant narcissist, his only positive effect is he inspires people to embrace socialism. Biden is the horse we have, we better bet the farm on him and move heaven and earth to keep him in office.

Expand full comment

Considering we're now at the point of choosing between two unfit men, both experiencing cognitive decline, both incapable of writing and speaking coherently, it seems worth getting into the details.

Expand full comment

Average Biden voter, 87 and out of touch with the majority of young people lol. The jokes write themselves.

Expand full comment

I'd love to hear Biden simply read out a sentence like “I see various cerebral impairments in my peers all the time.” Who wants to bet that he could manage it without a flub?

Expand full comment

You don’t think the fact that he has a stutter is a big part of this?! Look at videos of Biden from year ago - he flubbed things all the time then too!

Expand full comment

Enough with the stutter excuse. This is not stuttering. Just compare Biden speaking when he was VP to now. It’s night and day.

Expand full comment

No. I've never encountered anyone else with a stutter who says he's been speaking with dead people because of it, and neither has anyone else.

Expand full comment

Stutter bwahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Expand full comment

This is a troll.

Expand full comment

Ahh, the battlecry of the progressive throughout the ages: “anyone who disagrees with me must be acting in bad faith, because my beliefs are obviously true and perfect that no one could possibly have a sincere disagreement with them”. You all will never change, will you.

Expand full comment

No, it's troll-y. Period. You hear the dude on TV right now. He doesn't fumble that crap.

Expand full comment

What a nasty, hateful, ageist thing to say. It's as low as saying Black people are lazy and Jews are untrustworthy. And you, for all your youthful sagacity, can't even punctuate correctly.

Expand full comment

Average boomer, randomly bringing up racial stereotypes to lecture a young'un about using incorrect punctuation. As I said, the jokes write themselves.

Expand full comment

I'm gonna go with "this is a troll account pretending to be a kid".

Expand full comment

I can be 21 and dumb and be a real person too

Expand full comment

Thumbs up and a like for using baloney! On a serious note I think the solution is pretty easy. Like Nate said Do a bunch of interviews and act like a normal president running for reelection . Remember due to Covid we never even got to see Biden run in 2020.

If he can’t/wont run a campaign like pretty much every other president then I think the default is that he has serious enough age related cognitive decline that concern is justified. I am not saying that this concern would outweigh concerns about Trump, only that is it is disingenuous to assume that individuals with this concern are acting in bad faith or that it is not legitimate.

Expand full comment

I agree with you, but also feel inclined to point out, we had similar discussions regarding Biden in the primary leading up to 2020. There were tons of people claiming Biden was hiding in his basement refusing to campaign, and it made him look weak. The fact is, he ended up winning the primary handily. He did come out and campaign. Then he beat trump in the general election. That record against trump is better than any other democrat who’s run against trump.

When I think about which unprecedented feature of a presidential election I would rather have in 2024, Biden dropping out late with the DNC picking Trumps opponent, OR, running the oldest candidate in history, I think I take the candidate with the record of beating trump already. The fact is, this argument against Biden running for reelection needed to be made 4 years ago, and it may have been made, but it didn’t work. The only purpose of publishing stories like this is it allows the author the ability to save face if trump wins again (many including Nate said they didn’t believe he would win the first time).

And the fact is, it’s a low risk position to take. If trump loses no one will care that anyone called Biden too old. I think as the primary wraps up we will see Biden ramp up his campaign and the wagons will circle around him. He will do the interviews and I’m fairly confident he will sound presidential compared to the orange man from Florida.

Expand full comment

I tend to agree with this. I think people equate campaigning in 2024 with campaigning in 1952. It just isn't the same.

Also, who actually thinks that people don't know who Donald Trump is at this point? If you know who he is, you're either DEFINITELY voting for him...or not. If you're on the fence and you're of the "they're all too old" ilk, then you're probably staying home.

We should also come to grips with the fact that Trump will get 40% of the vote even if he pulls out a gun and shoots someone on stage. You can't argue with these people - they're not receptive to your message. They're also not enough to elect Trump.

Expand full comment

What is it that you hate about Trump?

Expand full comment

What do you like about trump?

Expand full comment

Too right- Biden is vigorous and on the ball and fully up to the job of CIC. They’re just hiding him because they don’t want to take a big lead too early 😂

If you want to compare Biden’s mental status to a politician we know was in mental decline, here is a clip of Regan’s last press conference. Taking unscripted questions and giving detailed answers.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t_puNc2MpCA

I can’t even imagine Biden getting through the opening remarks. He should not be in any high pressure decision making capacity. Not to worry- he probably isn’t. Remember he didn’t didn’t speak to his Sec Def for over a week while US troops were in a conflict zone and launching strikes on the Houthis. Chain of command goes from Prez to Sec Def to joint chiefs. The first two links in the chain were absent, begging the question of who exactly is in charge

Expand full comment

Wow. I remember back when we ridiculed Reagan for being a dumb actor. He is positively statesmanlike compared to either Biden or Trump. Love Helen Thomas slapping that zinger on him! He parried reasonably well. Biden or Trump would have gotten irritated, flustered and blown her off.

Expand full comment

Trump mental acuity is exceptional. Don’t let the TDS skew reality.

Expand full comment

You realize that exceptional is not a synonym for good or excellent right?

Expand full comment

I agree that Biden isn’t senile. Calling Biden senile is like calling him immobile. It’s not true but that doesn’t mean he isn’t too old - both mentally and physically - to do the hardest job in the world for another four years.

And I think this is becoming increasingly obvious to voters.

Expand full comment

When I look up "senile" in Webster's, it says: "exhibiting a decline of cognitive abilities (such as memory) associated with old age."

I don't know where the idea that senility = dementia comes from, maybe that's what it reads in the medical texts, but in the dictionary and in common usage it just means you're old and noticeably a lot less sharp than you once were. And I'm pretty sure the common usage preceded any technical medical usage. People until recently didn't use terms like "cognitive decline."

Note that Trump is also senile by this definition -- it's easy to see in appearances from decades ago that he used to be much sharper and wittier. Though I think most observers would agree the change from 8 years ago isn't as obvious with Trump as it is with Biden. Biden, fairly or not, appears right now to be MORE senile and to have increased in senility more rapidly, which is why the word "senile" lands on him more successfully.

Expand full comment

"voters" = NYT columnists

Expand full comment

I am almost 82 and still working and running marathons. I don’t expect Biden to run a marathon, but he can hardly walk and cannot speak in coherent sentences. He is suffering from completely ibviius dementia, and most of my 80+ year led friends agree.

Expand full comment

Tbh I think calling Biden "senile" is harsh and not accurate, and everybody ages differently - Bernie Sanders is older than Biden and is still cogent and energetic, for example. That said, it's clear that Biden's just not the same speaker that he was even five years ago. He has a *lot* of slips, and it's noticeable. It doesn't have to be medically diagnosed as senility to be concerning.

Expand full comment

“ occasionally memory slips. That's it. Nothing more,”

It is simultaneously laughable and sad that you type this. Whether because you’re a hard core partisan and feel it necessary, or because you are deluding yourself because the obvious truth is too painful, I could not possibly say. But those are pretty much the only two choices.

Expand full comment

Albert- we are talking about Biden. Not you. Not your wife.

Expand full comment

I think, without any disrespect for your wife or loved ones, for the purposes of gauging capability to handle what may be the most difficult job on the planet during one of the most difficult times to hold it, I am more than happy with setting a ridiculously low bar for the definition of senility in this instance. Not that Trump does stellar on that metric either. But we need to be realistic about Biden's score, too.

Expand full comment

My father succumbed to Alzheimer's at 83, and my mother to dementia at 93.

I still don't really understand the difference, but I see both of them in Biden. The fact that Jill, Barack and Hillary still find him a useful figurehead for them to control is disgusting.

And the media pretend it's normal.

Expand full comment

As a physician, I can tell you that dementia and senility are nearly interchangeable terms. The former is currently favored by clinicians but that is almost a matter of fashion. The only distinction I can make is one of degree: one can be a little bit senile but I don’t see describing someone as a little bit demented. Although I hesitate to make any long-distance assessment, only the former is plausible in Biden’s case

Expand full comment

Being pedantic about word choice is a way to be technically correct and still lose the argument.

Expand full comment

My mother and stepmother both died of dementia, one 12 years after the official (late) diagnosis. I've dealt with it up close and personal for nearly 20 years. That press conference had me near tears.

The small and shrinking percentage of you trying to pass this off as occasional, or a stutter, are free to believe this, but I can't imagine you'll convince the 80% who believe what they see to unbelieve it.

Much as he deserves respect for taking down the Orange Menace, and much as he deserves admiration for wanting to soldier on, it's time to step down.

For the sake of him and his family, along with the rest of us, I pray he does so.

Expand full comment

Biden isn't senile, but in my view the bar for "what is a reasonable level of mental acuity to expect from a president?" ought to be a lot higher than "not senile", and Biden doesn't meet that standard. (Though nor does Trump, of course.)

Expand full comment

The truth hurts I guess.

Expand full comment

He isn’t senile he’s always been like this. All the gaffes when he was VP nothing has really changed. Now Trump is in clear cognitive decline. Forgetting election dates, what candidates he beat in the past, who his current opponents are. Missing names of his kids, etc.

Expand full comment

Yes, yes, it is blindingly obvious that Trump has made many many many more “gaffes” that Biden over the last several months. Nothing whatsoever has changed with Biden.

Please please please keep repeating this.

Three quarters of the 30% of the country that will vote leftist regardless might even believe it.

But not even 10% of the rest of the country do.

Expand full comment

I agree with the lack of data backing - but I think it applies to this piece as well. One thing Matt Yglesias has brought up is that in the limited number of comparable polls we have between Trump and Biden + other plausible dem candidates Biden is pretty clearly level with or ahead of those other options. So when Nate makes an assertion like "Biden is a below replacement level candidate" I'm open to believing that is true, but where's the data that should make me feel confident in that assertion?

To me it seems like it's pointing in the opposite direction. And if there's a reason that I should be skeptical of that, I'd hope that an expert like Nate could explain why I should take those polls with a grain of salt.

Expand full comment

I think we see a comprehensive set of polls showing Trump leading. Nothing like this occurred in 2016 or 2020. Trump has leads in polls, which typically favor the DNC, at every level. Just a simple meta analysis reveals substantial problems for Biden

Expand full comment

It’s February

Expand full comment

Be careful about the predictive power of polls. Pre-Dobbs, the Republicans generally outperformed their polls by a bit. Ever since the Dobbs decision, the Democrats have outperformed their polls in virtually every election, sometimes by large margins. This tells you that the sampling of polls no longer reflects the actual electorate in the same way it once did. The turnout model is wrong.

Expand full comment

Dobbs moved the needle to be sure. I would concur with the non-predicative power of modern polls. But they also can be collectively useful. We see an overwhelming trend away from Biden. That's not happened before and has not changed.

Expand full comment

If there’s one thing I’ve come to realize, it’s that polls mean nothing (i.e. mid-term Red Wave)…

Expand full comment

And yet anyone that isn’t Biden does worse, so…

Expand full comment

It's not even just that Nate is doing more punditry imo. It's that some of his data-driven takes are weaker than I'm accustomed to seeing from Nate. Similar to you, I've followed Nate for basically my entire adult life, and it's disappointing to see.

(One example: Nate's "Trump is not inevitable in Iowa" piece)

Expand full comment

538 also blew the last 4 national elections. I wouldn’t take his analysis very seriously.

Expand full comment

I agree. The punditry is weak, but this is a guy I liked years ago because his data was solid. Now, he seems to be trying to fit the data to his punditry, and it’s not working.

Expand full comment

Curious question, I’ve seen this comment in several forms - that Nate has drifted into punditry. I saw punditry heavily on fivethirtyeight but I haven’t noticed it myself from him. Would you be willing to give some examples?

Expand full comment

Nah, you have free access to search so you can look. I’d say maybe a better way to word it is that the posts are less data focused. It’s not meant as a criticism so much as an observation… where we used to see a lot of regression analyses, statistical theorems tested to show pollsters fudging their results, etc, now we get more articles like this - where it’s more of a political position and the data is a smaller piece of the puzzle.

I don’t have any issue with that and I think a big part is that Nate is freed from the shackles of ABC, but I do miss the takes that were centered around some statistical analysis Nate did, or a model he built, rather than more of an “opinion” if that makes sense

Expand full comment

🤡 Reply. Would your PhD advisor accept “Nah, you have free access to search” as a response? You made a claim, back it up.

Expand full comment

Oh huh, who knew that a comment on a blog is a dissertation.

I wish I could live like you. In some blue MAGA bubble where your senile old man is somehow mentally fit and capable of being president through age 86. It honestly must be quite nice to be so naive, or have the ability to lie to yourself so thoroughly.

Expand full comment

It obviously isn’t. The point is you should know better than making claims you can’t back up, especially with your background. Not going to address the nonsense politics since my comment had nothing to do with it.

TL;DR: don’t be a dick

Expand full comment

I think you were being the dick w/ clown reply - you are welcome to disagree with his observation w/out that comment.

Expand full comment

You were the clown errr dick 🤡

Expand full comment

Where did Anthony say anything about Joe Biden?

Expand full comment

Ah- all I need to do is cherry pick some data you agree with and it is no longer punditry- got it

Expand full comment

I think his data selection seems more purposed to support his opinion.

Expand full comment

Fair enough, I still have seen a fair amount of rigor or at least data underpinning (even if the article is an extrapolation) in his work. But you don’t owe me examples any more than I owe you agreement 🤷‍♂️

Expand full comment

My question: Who sent out the memo telling our watchdog press it was now okay to report the obvious?

https://billricejr.substack.com/p/joe-bidens-toast?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Expand full comment

“He can’t handle the job”…that he’s currently doing.

This makes zero sense.

Expand full comment

He isn't doing the job. He is being told what to do. He even reads the stage directions, shakes hands with someone who isn't there, and stumbles very frequently going up stairs. He was always a fool, but now he is a demented fool.

Aren't you Dems glad you went with him? and Kamala! haha

Expand full comment

He literally needs cue cards to know what "his" policy positions are when talking to potential donors

Expand full comment

I keep asking this question and getting no answers - what evidence do you have of him being “senile”? And don’t say “just look at him” or “just listen to him.”

Old and senile are not the same thing.

Expand full comment

The definition of senility is the loss of mental faculties due to old age. Are you seriously going to conclude this does not apply to Biden?

Expand full comment

Yes. What evidence do you have his thinking is any less clear and cogent? He’s always been a poor verbal communicator, it doesn’t prove anything about his mental faculties.

Kevin McCarthy had every reason to cast doubt on Biden’s abilities - so why did he tell Republican allies in private that Biden was sharp in their conversations?

Expand full comment

The McCarthy answer is actually quite simple. He was speaker and could not afford to tick off the WH and by keeping Biden in play, he aids his own side. There was no reason not to sustain the myth.

Expand full comment

He made fun of Biden publicly while privately praising him!

“On a particularly sensitive matter, McCarthy mocked Biden's age and mental acuity in public, while privately telling allies that he found the president sharp and substantive in their conversations — a contradiction that left a deep impression on the White House.”

That’s literally the opposite of your theory!

Expand full comment

If you are quoting the NYT March 18, 2023 article, which states McCarthy has told allies he has found Biden to be "sharp" in meetings. This is a vague, unattributed quote without any source which makes for easy generalizations. The article further states that Biden does not meet with McCarthy, so it would seem the sample size is small at best.

Expand full comment

His verbal communication has deteriorated even compared to his second VP term.

And of course, its not just that, it's his very poor memory.

Though I'm sure you think Robert Hur is on Putin's payroll or something.

Expand full comment

Obviously, Biden is senile. The question is to what degree.

Expand full comment

se·nile

/ˈsēˌnīl,ˈseˌnīl/

adjective

(of a person) having or showing the weaknesses or diseases of old age, especially a loss of mental faculties.

"she couldn't cope with her senile husband"

Every candidate for any political office should have a cognitive test on a yearly basis.

Expand full comment

I don't know about "every" candidate. But Presidents certainly should be examined by a bipartisan medical board once a year. Under the 25A, Congress certainly has the power to set up such a board, have the doctors appointed equally by the majority and minority caucus in each House, and require an examination of the President and a report to Congress every year.

Expand full comment

You don’t need any political boards if all the board members were Democrats they’d say that Biden was sane and mentally fit to be president. Stop with the damn gaslighting already. Just give them the damn test that’s all America and the world needs the competency test.

Expand full comment

Not true, I am 80/and a Dem. I think Biden is sane but not cognitively balanced to be president. A high percentage of Americans do not want him or trump.

Biden has a 39% of Americans who like him.

Expand full comment

lol. Keep lying to yourself, we will see how well it works in the election.

Expand full comment

There are many compilation clips on YouTube with Biden’s verbal mistakes. So, so many of them.

Expand full comment

He was doing that 30 years ago!

Expand full comment

No. If you watch him from when he was VP to now the change is obvious.

Expand full comment

But he stutters a lot tho that’s the issue stuttering

Expand full comment

Goes to show you that anyone can be President. A can of beans can be President. Doesn’t matter who it is obviously.

Expand full comment

The beans can only be president if they are 35 years old!!

Expand full comment

“Old and senile are not the same thing”

100% correct.

Trump and Bernie are old, but not senile.

Biden is old and so obviously senile that to deny it is Orwellian.

“Just listen to him” might not be a reasonable standard if it were only 1 or two instances, but it’s a large - no, enormous - body of work now.

But if he does what Silver suggests and gets out there and demonstrates otherwise, that would perhaps be evidence that he is not

Expand full comment

Why is Biden and his handlers not doing a competency test -> there’s all the evidence you need

Expand full comment

Pretty sure he can say “Person, woman, man, camera, TV” in order

Expand full comment

Yeah I’m sure he can if so why not take the test

Expand full comment

Because it’s meaningless? Do you really even believe Trump took it?

Expand full comment

“Because you are one of the rare few being honest about what we can all see. ”

But in fact Silver is not being *completely* honest, because he suggests that the issue is “age” as euphemism for the real issue: dementia/senility.

Yes, it is an otherwise excellent article for someone on the center-left. But it’s telling that Silver can’t speak the *plain* truth when he’s supposedly speaking the truth. Though whether that says more about him or about the left overall (the large majority of his audience) is hard to say.

Expand full comment

Good job. Now go back to papa pootin and lick his ass, mouse, he'll throw you some more crumbs.

Expand full comment

Reporting this post for misinformation. Biden is not senile, he is one of the best presidents in history. Open borders, inflation, and escalating towards world war 3 are good. Orange man bad. We need to keep him and Dean Phillips off the ballot in order to protect our sacred Democracy.

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/nina-jankowicz-ministry-of-truth-scary-poppins-

Expand full comment

It’s such a Substack experience to read a thoughtful and well-written article, go to the comments section, and see the most braindead responses imaginable.

Expand full comment

Substack doesn’t have a sarcasm detector yet ;)

Expand full comment

Sarcasm. Thank God! For a second there I thought you were using Orwell nonironically.

Expand full comment

How to Subvert Reality with Some Lying Doofus on Substack

Expand full comment

He's just repeating the most brain dead ironic cynicism because he knows that's what Nate Silver readers crave. It's so rote, but protects them from looking at the data Nate claims to love.

Expand full comment

You can’t get around the fact that the Biden administration are too scared for their candidate to do basic televised interviews.

Expand full comment

"too scared"

Expand full comment

Substack came to prominence as an organ for anti-science misinformation during Covid and this commenter is a fairly typical Substack subscriber. Nate is obviously a responsible and reasonable voice but I will never subscribe to another Substack because Substack is a steaming pile of manure. The Substack founders are unethical and only care about money and they rationalize the blood money they make under the pretext of “free speech”. Substack got a lot of people killed by platforming Covid misinformation about vaccines and masking and snake oil cures….buh free speech.

Expand full comment

Yeah, brah, Free Speech! You want to live in censor land, most of us here don't.

Expand full comment

Most commenters on Substack want to stick ivermectin up their buttholes…dream big!!

Expand full comment

Why is it your business if they stuck ivermectin up their butts? Oh… I know why… you were one of those clowns decrying the maskless, ivermectin, while pretending you knew the science— the same “science” that Biden spewed in his town hall, that if you get the vax, you won’t get covid. Then we found out it’s all bullshit. You still get covid and you can give it to others. And the many international studies on the masks show no benefit.

Expand full comment

Masks worked to slow the spread though…we have data that shows ivermectin prescriptions spiked in the southeast Delta death surge and so it was clearly ineffective as prescribed.

Expand full comment

Meanwhile, the economic, educational and health fallout from the shutdown mandates are still being felt, but you don't care about that because it doesn't align with your full blown panic attack that started with the :world is ending" hysteria promulgated from the fear peddlers, all of whom had an agenda.

Expand full comment

Upwards of 30% of those hospitalized died in the initial wave…that was another 9/11 every 3 days in NYC.

Expand full comment