On the off chance Nate or Eli read this comment: speaking of places where there was a legit red wave in 2024, what do you make of the recent Manhattan Institute poll that shows Elise Stefanik one point ahead of Kathy Hochul for next year's New York gubernatorial race? Even given house effects and the usual admonition not to read too much into any single poll result, that still seems pretty damn striking.
Yeah that was a surprising result. There haven't been many polls of the race, but it was a pretty big outlier: Siena had it at Hochul +25 in September. But both polls still have a ton of undecided voters (~20%). My usual reaction this far out is to throw it in the average and wait for more data.
The real question is why isn’t New Jersey a red state?
What has Democratic governance done for it?
Electricity prices will only worsen as Democrats pursue climate extremism? As if a fool like Murphy knew anything about engineering or physics to be imposing the costs of net zero on his citizens.
Have you seen the republican party? That’s why any state is not a red state. Democrats may not do enough for them, but republicans will do a lot to them. Climate extremism like banning free enterprise from investing in and building off shore wind energy farms? Democrats will remain free enterprise while Republicans continue to embrace their version of Trump socialism.
Up front I am a supporter of Mikie Sherrill. The polls have been all over the place so I think it will come down to which campaign turns out the voters. In my area, Morris County, early voting turn out has been steady, so it seems like there is a lot of interest in this election.
I don’t think NJ is a swing state - at least not yet. I’m a NJ resident who was part of the 2020 to 2024 drop off - I canvassed for Harris in PA but simply could not pull the lever for her in blue NJ (I wrote in), because I could not sign my name to the Dumbest Political Party Ever, aka the 2023-24 Dems. I heard a radio show shortly after Election Day where many of the NY-NJ callers were saying the same thing. But it’s not like we all became Republicans. I voted for Sherrill already, and I think a lot of the other “drop off” people will as well, in part bc we’re unhappy with Trump and - *super cynical alert* - I’m thinking 2025 might be our last legit election year, at least for a while. However, if the Dems continue to be idiots - so far not much evidence to the contrary - then sure, I suppose the Rs can and will continue to make inroads here.
I thought this was a Nate article until I got to the comments. You do a better job of channeling Nate’s voice than anyone who has written for him before. I wonder if it’s tent, AI smoothing, or both.
Solid article, and thank you for not over reaching.
I think you are missing a story about Orthodox Jewish voters, who have become an increasingly large share of the vote over time, particularly in places like Passaic which you cited. These voters tend to vote en bloc which leads to a sudden shift of a couple hundred thousand votes depending on the endorsement of a couple of rabbis. Judging by the share of Hebrew/Yiddish signs in NJ I would guess they are going Red.
Many interesting insights in this article. "the difficulty of polling nonwhite voters": could you explain why? Genuinely curious.
By design, you have fewer Hispanic and Black respondents in your poll than white respondents (because they make up smaller shares of the population). That means your estimates for those subgroups will be less precise. But the bigger problem is that historically, polls have had a harder time nailing down how these groups are going to vote. For example, they picked up the movement toward Trump among Hispanics in 2024, but more underestimated it: https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf. There were similar issues in 2020. There's also some evidence that online opt-in polls (like YouGov, for example) have a hard time with Hispanic respondents: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/
Thanks for your answer and especially for the link to the Pewresearch's article, it's probably a topic that deserves extensive research.
On the off chance Nate or Eli read this comment: speaking of places where there was a legit red wave in 2024, what do you make of the recent Manhattan Institute poll that shows Elise Stefanik one point ahead of Kathy Hochul for next year's New York gubernatorial race? Even given house effects and the usual admonition not to read too much into any single poll result, that still seems pretty damn striking.
Yeah that was a surprising result. There haven't been many polls of the race, but it was a pretty big outlier: Siena had it at Hochul +25 in September. But both polls still have a ton of undecided voters (~20%). My usual reaction this far out is to throw it in the average and wait for more data.
Thank you for your reply!
The real question is why isn’t New Jersey a red state?
What has Democratic governance done for it?
Electricity prices will only worsen as Democrats pursue climate extremism? As if a fool like Murphy knew anything about engineering or physics to be imposing the costs of net zero on his citizens.
Why is Sherill even a Democrat?
Have you seen the republican party? That’s why any state is not a red state. Democrats may not do enough for them, but republicans will do a lot to them. Climate extremism like banning free enterprise from investing in and building off shore wind energy farms? Democrats will remain free enterprise while Republicans continue to embrace their version of Trump socialism.
Up front I am a supporter of Mikie Sherrill. The polls have been all over the place so I think it will come down to which campaign turns out the voters. In my area, Morris County, early voting turn out has been steady, so it seems like there is a lot of interest in this election.
I don’t think NJ is a swing state - at least not yet. I’m a NJ resident who was part of the 2020 to 2024 drop off - I canvassed for Harris in PA but simply could not pull the lever for her in blue NJ (I wrote in), because I could not sign my name to the Dumbest Political Party Ever, aka the 2023-24 Dems. I heard a radio show shortly after Election Day where many of the NY-NJ callers were saying the same thing. But it’s not like we all became Republicans. I voted for Sherrill already, and I think a lot of the other “drop off” people will as well, in part bc we’re unhappy with Trump and - *super cynical alert* - I’m thinking 2025 might be our last legit election year, at least for a while. However, if the Dems continue to be idiots - so far not much evidence to the contrary - then sure, I suppose the Rs can and will continue to make inroads here.
I thought this was a Nate article until I got to the comments. You do a better job of channeling Nate’s voice than anyone who has written for him before. I wonder if it’s tent, AI smoothing, or both.
Solid article, and thank you for not over reaching.
Realclearpolitics.com has the NJ margin at +3 D.
I think you are missing a story about Orthodox Jewish voters, who have become an increasingly large share of the vote over time, particularly in places like Passaic which you cited. These voters tend to vote en bloc which leads to a sudden shift of a couple hundred thousand votes depending on the endorsement of a couple of rabbis. Judging by the share of Hebrew/Yiddish signs in NJ I would guess they are going Red.