In addition to the NFL and NBA models, I hope the new hire will also incorporate an MLB model. I know that won't get as much traffic as those other two, but there are those of us who like it!
I'm a bit late to reply, but I can't miss another chance to pull for the MLB model, even if it looks pretty clear that it wouldn't be until 2026 at this point.
I’m not that into sports or poker, so the recent content hasn’t really been enough to justify the subscription price. However, I have immense respect for Nate’s work and career and will show patience while he figures this out. I hope that Nate will put the same effort into this site that he did during the early years of 538. Nate’s articles were always. cut above the others. Perry Bacon, Jr. wrote a couple of bangers, but literally 90% of the value of the site was Nate’s work and intern level stuff supporting it.
Perry, Nate, and Clare Malone were always my favorite writers on there. And man the podcast during the early years (and even leading up to Nate's departure) was so freaking good.
Same. I'd say her writing was actually what I enjoyed the most on the site (if only because it became ever rarer to see a Nate article). Not as data driven as Nate's, but it had a very distinct 'voice' I really enjoyed. I was really bummed out when she was laid off.
Hell, a few times per year I randomly wonder what she's up to and look her up. Glad to see she's currently at the New Yorker, seems like a good fit.
I couldn’t agree more. You can’t expect every single thing someone writes to be both top notch writing and perfectly aligned with your interests. But when someone can line up a dozen of those posts each year on average, it’s worth waiting for. And you never know - sometimes you pick up a new interest you wouldn’t have expected to like!
I just wanted to note that after subscribing, I installed the substack app on my phone. I quickly learned that its experience was notably worse than just reading the newsletter on the web. As such I uninstalled it. Obviously this dramatically reduces how likely I am to subscribe to other substacks and engage in that community in general. Given your stake in substack, you should probably push them to make it better so people like me that wanted to try it out don't immediately abandon it.
Thanks, Nate. I've been reading your work since FiveThirtyEight was a little independent blog back in 2008, and I'm glad I get to keep reading it in 2025. I've learned a TON about elections and modeling from you over the years. I feel like the Silver Bulletin iteration of your work has the added value of my discovering that I don't always agree with you on certain issues and arguments, but I like reading something that occasionally challenges my own perspectives and helps me strengthen my own arguments and/or change them as needed. Keep doing what you're doing :).
I started reading your blog posts in 2008 and touted you to friends and family and anyone who'd listen as the best source of reasoned, data-driven understandings of politics (sports is just not my thing. Sorry). As time went on I found I favored your models, dashboards, and other interactives.
I'm glad to see you basically returning to those roots, both the early blog and the later interactives. You're building a vital resource for many of us
It’s funny reading how varied the comments are among us subscribers. For me, an email might as well be a telegram delivered by a man on a horse. A telegram that goes into a pile that I will never read. Genuinely fascinating to see that so many people do still find value in reading medium length content (or long form content) within an email app.
I rarely use the substack website, don’t really love the UX.
It makes sense that Substack allows for custom domains like natesilver.net, like Shopify does for …. A whole bunch of shops. But until you mentioned your domain in this article, I had no clue that you (A) have a website that was maintained, even after I was on it for the short time that you had the model running on election night, and (B) and probably never ever ever going to do a direct search to find your site. So if you have links in the posts to the various charts in your Web app, that’ll be the only way I’ll ever see the interactive stuff.
The most interesting thing overall from this post is that I’m in the tiny minority that I had no idea was not the overwhelming majority - the peeps pretty much exclusively using the Substack mobile app for reading, commenting, and everything else I do “ on Substack.” And that’s kind of the point - although you have a website that has legit traffic, a variable fraction of which is served from Substack, I think of my sub to your substack as a subscription to a channel within a huge catalog. That means that while in theory, if you exercise the option to take your stuff to some other host I’d come along for the migration, in reality it’s much more likely I would churn. Because a collection of emails received over a wide range of times is not a substitute for a mobile app (for me), and I’m not going to start fragmenting where I go to read news, opinions, and interact across a larger set of websites then I already keep loaded in memory (even after 30 years, I don’t use browser bookmarks).
I think it speaks to how fragmented the consumption-scape is and how many trade-offs a person has to consider when they're deciding on a home platform.
I am subscribed by email which is how I know of updates to your Substack, but I do prefer to read the entire article on the web. And .... there is no link from the email to the website. There is a link "read in app" but I'm not on the app. I just want to go to natesilver.net to read it. Any way you could make your emails start including a link to read the article on the web -- or even a generic toplevel link to natesilver.net?
Because, you know, it is SOOO inconvenient to open another browser tab and type "natesilver.net" ... umm.
Don't know how your email works, but with me the article title is a link to the web version of that article. That's how I got here - right-click-copied the title and pasted into my browser.
I've gotten an incredible amount of value from reading Nate and his publications over the years. As long as he has a shingle up somewhere I will pass some ducats his way.
Quick comment about Substack. I subscribe to support you, but it is a pain in the ass to authenticate when I go to the web site since it requires an emailed code each time. As such, I usually just hit the "no thanks" to subscribing to see the web site. As such, you will likely see most of my web traffic as non subscriber, even though I am one. Not sure how many other of your subscribers are in this boat, but wanted to make you aware.
This is partially my fault. I have a lot of privacy features enabled on my browser, which are disabled for natesilver.net, but not for substack in general, so I trade off convenience for privacy.
I have a Substack login with password and 1Password via browser extension.
If you've created the account, there's a sub-option in a browser - `log in with password' and then it goes through fine.
The less user-friendly thing that happens to me is because my cookies clear whenever I close out of my browser (which I do frequently), if I'm not already signed into substack but signed into email, and I click on the email header, then it thinks that "Jay Arr Ess has shared an article with me" and tries to throw me to the paywall to subscribe, and that page doesn't for some reason give me the option to just log in.
Apologies if I’m asking a dumb question but do you have the same problem with the phone app? That’s how I read Silver Bulletin and I enabled facial recognition. It’s made it very easy to read posts on the fly and there’s no other verification necessary.
OK, I plunked down my 95 bucks, but I'm not (yet?) happy about it. I like your political poling models and averages, and your *wonderful* soccer models. I don't really care much about your articles, I'm afraid, unless they're discussing your political poling models and averages, or your soccer models. Right now, I'm only getting a tiny bit of political poling averages, but no soccer stuff. So, I'm not yet happy.
But, obviously, you can make me happy before it's time for me to renew.
What I'm here for are Nate's words. He has a particular way of presenting a well-reasoned and well-explained argument about whatever the topic is, that I find engaging and interesting. I haven't found that exact flavor of analysis anywhere else.
So even if the topic is poker, which I don't play, or basketball, which I never watch, it's worth reading or at least skimming an article I get in my inbox, because I'll find the methods of analysis and tone of the presentation agreeable and interesting.
I don't care at all about sports models personally. And I only care about the political models because elections have consequences for me as a US resident.
I am but one subscriber, but if non-political models take a lot more bandwidth and expense than a typical Nate-authored article about random topic X, I'd say don't prioritize them so much.
In addition to the NFL and NBA models, I hope the new hire will also incorporate an MLB model. I know that won't get as much traffic as those other two, but there are those of us who like it!
Agree 100%. Would love a baseball model.
I'm a bit late to reply, but I can't miss another chance to pull for the MLB model, even if it looks pretty clear that it wouldn't be until 2026 at this point.
I’m not that into sports or poker, so the recent content hasn’t really been enough to justify the subscription price. However, I have immense respect for Nate’s work and career and will show patience while he figures this out. I hope that Nate will put the same effort into this site that he did during the early years of 538. Nate’s articles were always. cut above the others. Perry Bacon, Jr. wrote a couple of bangers, but literally 90% of the value of the site was Nate’s work and intern level stuff supporting it.
Perry, Nate, and Clare Malone were always my favorite writers on there. And man the podcast during the early years (and even leading up to Nate's departure) was so freaking good.
Clare was good on the podcast but her writing sucked
I actually really liked her writing.
Agreed with JC, there are some articles she wrote I still think about years afterwards. Some of her recent New Yorker pieces have been excellent, too.
Same. I'd say her writing was actually what I enjoyed the most on the site (if only because it became ever rarer to see a Nate article). Not as data driven as Nate's, but it had a very distinct 'voice' I really enjoyed. I was really bummed out when she was laid off.
Hell, a few times per year I randomly wonder what she's up to and look her up. Glad to see she's currently at the New Yorker, seems like a good fit.
I did not know that! Awesome!
I couldn’t agree more. You can’t expect every single thing someone writes to be both top notch writing and perfectly aligned with your interests. But when someone can line up a dozen of those posts each year on average, it’s worth waiting for. And you never know - sometimes you pick up a new interest you wouldn’t have expected to like!
Hey Nate,
I just wanted to note that after subscribing, I installed the substack app on my phone. I quickly learned that its experience was notably worse than just reading the newsletter on the web. As such I uninstalled it. Obviously this dramatically reduces how likely I am to subscribe to other substacks and engage in that community in general. Given your stake in substack, you should probably push them to make it better so people like me that wanted to try it out don't immediately abandon it.
Fwiw on the app images sometimes don't appear
Thanks, Nate. I've been reading your work since FiveThirtyEight was a little independent blog back in 2008, and I'm glad I get to keep reading it in 2025. I've learned a TON about elections and modeling from you over the years. I feel like the Silver Bulletin iteration of your work has the added value of my discovering that I don't always agree with you on certain issues and arguments, but I like reading something that occasionally challenges my own perspectives and helps me strengthen my own arguments and/or change them as needed. Keep doing what you're doing :).
I started reading your blog posts in 2008 and touted you to friends and family and anyone who'd listen as the best source of reasoned, data-driven understandings of politics (sports is just not my thing. Sorry). As time went on I found I favored your models, dashboards, and other interactives.
I'm glad to see you basically returning to those roots, both the early blog and the later interactives. You're building a vital resource for many of us
I wanted to just say thanks, Nate, for being sparing in your emailing.
I noticed that choice, and I appreciate it.
I usually get the email, realize there's been an update, and then hop over to the web version to see the pretty pictures.
It’s funny reading how varied the comments are among us subscribers. For me, an email might as well be a telegram delivered by a man on a horse. A telegram that goes into a pile that I will never read. Genuinely fascinating to see that so many people do still find value in reading medium length content (or long form content) within an email app.
I rarely use the substack website, don’t really love the UX.
It makes sense that Substack allows for custom domains like natesilver.net, like Shopify does for …. A whole bunch of shops. But until you mentioned your domain in this article, I had no clue that you (A) have a website that was maintained, even after I was on it for the short time that you had the model running on election night, and (B) and probably never ever ever going to do a direct search to find your site. So if you have links in the posts to the various charts in your Web app, that’ll be the only way I’ll ever see the interactive stuff.
The most interesting thing overall from this post is that I’m in the tiny minority that I had no idea was not the overwhelming majority - the peeps pretty much exclusively using the Substack mobile app for reading, commenting, and everything else I do “ on Substack.” And that’s kind of the point - although you have a website that has legit traffic, a variable fraction of which is served from Substack, I think of my sub to your substack as a subscription to a channel within a huge catalog. That means that while in theory, if you exercise the option to take your stuff to some other host I’d come along for the migration, in reality it’s much more likely I would churn. Because a collection of emails received over a wide range of times is not a substitute for a mobile app (for me), and I’m not going to start fragmenting where I go to read news, opinions, and interact across a larger set of websites then I already keep loaded in memory (even after 30 years, I don’t use browser bookmarks).
This is a fun comments section here.
I think it speaks to how fragmented the consumption-scape is and how many trade-offs a person has to consider when they're deciding on a home platform.
I am subscribed by email which is how I know of updates to your Substack, but I do prefer to read the entire article on the web. And .... there is no link from the email to the website. There is a link "read in app" but I'm not on the app. I just want to go to natesilver.net to read it. Any way you could make your emails start including a link to read the article on the web -- or even a generic toplevel link to natesilver.net?
Because, you know, it is SOOO inconvenient to open another browser tab and type "natesilver.net" ... umm.
Don't know how your email works, but with me the article title is a link to the web version of that article. That's how I got here - right-click-copied the title and pasted into my browser.
Yep, same here. And I just click the title, which automatically opens the browser.
I stay logged in to Substack, if that's an issue.
I'm here for the Zingerman's references! The only thing I miss about Ann Arbor.
I've gotten an incredible amount of value from reading Nate and his publications over the years. As long as he has a shingle up somewhere I will pass some ducats his way.
Quick comment about Substack. I subscribe to support you, but it is a pain in the ass to authenticate when I go to the web site since it requires an emailed code each time. As such, I usually just hit the "no thanks" to subscribing to see the web site. As such, you will likely see most of my web traffic as non subscriber, even though I am one. Not sure how many other of your subscribers are in this boat, but wanted to make you aware.
This is partially my fault. I have a lot of privacy features enabled on my browser, which are disabled for natesilver.net, but not for substack in general, so I trade off convenience for privacy.
I have a Substack login with password and 1Password via browser extension.
If you've created the account, there's a sub-option in a browser - `log in with password' and then it goes through fine.
The less user-friendly thing that happens to me is because my cookies clear whenever I close out of my browser (which I do frequently), if I'm not already signed into substack but signed into email, and I click on the email header, then it thinks that "Jay Arr Ess has shared an article with me" and tries to throw me to the paywall to subscribe, and that page doesn't for some reason give me the option to just log in.
Exact same problem.
Apologies if I’m asking a dumb question but do you have the same problem with the phone app? That’s how I read Silver Bulletin and I enabled facial recognition. It’s made it very easy to read posts on the fly and there’s no other verification necessary.
It would be great to just get a little stat analysis with a current, actionable NBA playoff prediction....
Wonderful Nate:
OK, I plunked down my 95 bucks, but I'm not (yet?) happy about it. I like your political poling models and averages, and your *wonderful* soccer models. I don't really care much about your articles, I'm afraid, unless they're discussing your political poling models and averages, or your soccer models. Right now, I'm only getting a tiny bit of political poling averages, but no soccer stuff. So, I'm not yet happy.
But, obviously, you can make me happy before it's time for me to renew.
Thanks for your consideration.
<3
What I'm here for are Nate's words. He has a particular way of presenting a well-reasoned and well-explained argument about whatever the topic is, that I find engaging and interesting. I haven't found that exact flavor of analysis anywhere else.
So even if the topic is poker, which I don't play, or basketball, which I never watch, it's worth reading or at least skimming an article I get in my inbox, because I'll find the methods of analysis and tone of the presentation agreeable and interesting.
I don't care at all about sports models personally. And I only care about the political models because elections have consequences for me as a US resident.
I am but one subscriber, but if non-political models take a lot more bandwidth and expense than a typical Nate-authored article about random topic X, I'd say don't prioritize them so much.
I also loved the MLB model at 538 and would absolutely love to see it's return, along with NFL and NBA. MLB is what got me to 538 in the first place.