Silver Bulletin will begin publishing some new features soon — including Trump approval ratings. But the media just lost an extremely valuable resource.
As one who loved FiveThirtyEight from the moment a friend steered me to it in the Summer of 2008, I am sad to see it close down for good. If 538/FiveThirtyEight really is done, could this open the door for one Nate Silver to take back his brand? Given Disney ownership, probably not, but one can dream...
Take back? Disney won't go for that. Buy the name back? Maybe - I'd like to see Nate do that, as long as the price was reasonable. "Silver Bulletin" is becoming a brand of its own at this point, but that could be the branding of the 538 front-facing newsletter as well. I don't think that Nate should pay anything significant for it though.
Nate wouldn't, but in that particular corporate sphere there is the assumption that Nate is doing all of this just to build a new product to be sold to them when it reaches maturity.
These are the same types of executives that do not understand why Gabe Newell will likely never sell Valve, and trying to inquire too strongly could result in 'a really bad day' as Gabe takes proactive efforts to ensure the independence of his investments.
(For people who are confused by the second statement, look up 'Sierra Entertainment, Valve, and CUC International.' He nearly lost everything once to shareholder forced shenanigans that 'forced' the sale of Sierra to CUC International... before anyone realized it was all a ponzi scheme. He's got opinions about shareholders and what they do to companies.)
538 is one of those media outlets that definitely found me at a pivotal moment in my life and directed me towards thinking about politics in a more data-driven, analytical way. RIP. I hope that the diaspora continues to propagate 538's rigorous, more quantitative approach.
My favorite part of 538 (and the part that Disney dropped entirely after the 2023 layoffs) was the sports reporting and analysis. I'm glad to see you'll be doing more of that here in the future!
Pouring one out for FiveThirtyEight. I started with the politics podcast - Jody Avirgan, Harry Enten, Clare Malone, Nate Silver. The gold standard. Cheers!
The thing I will miss the most about 538 is the podcast and specifically the OG podcast with Galen, Clare and Nate. Think about bringing something similar back.
I sent an email message to FiveThirtyEight this morning, before Nate posted his comments, asking what happened to the polls. Thank you, Nate, for answering my question; I don't think I'll hear anything from them. Because they've gone kaput, I'm now subscribing to Silver Bulletin.
The writing was on the wall since the 2023 layoffs I think. You can't always choose, but if I had been working at FiveThirtyEight and survived then, I would have looked to go somewhere else ASAP.
To me, FiveThirtyEight was Nate, and it never made much sense for the site to go on after he left. I don't think he will want to resurrect the brand, but its spirit lives on, and I guess it will be easier now to get some former colleagues around, even if on a partial or guest role. Every time I opened a "model talk" post on the 2024 election, I heard Galen and Nate on my head: "This. Is. Model Talk!!!"
I quit going regularly to 538 when Nate left, but this news still makes my heart heavy. I’m glad he took the time to address it. Been needing a funeral for it for awhile, it’s been like Weekend at Bernie’s over there.
Please don’t say “Trump approval ratings go up tomorrow” unless you are making a prediction. I think you meant they are being posted or published tomorrow, no?
I miss the old Grantland and 538 days of ESPN. The company has gone in a completely different direction with a focus on over the top characters instead of quality journalism
Not gonna lie - I miss the Galen/Nate pod - Model Talk, etc - maybe a collab in your future?
Galen’s new substack: gdpolitics.com
Jody was so much better than Galen.
Jody, Claire, Perry and Nate were an absolute Podcast Dream Team.
Harry Enten was great too when he was there.
Me too! Maybe Galen can do a guest spot or two.
I think the unceremonious firing of Clare Malone was the beginning of the end for fivethirtyeight. There was a clear "vibe shift" after that moment.
That was disappointing. Honestly I stopped reading then.
Been thinking about that recently. Looks in hindsight like step 1 in the 3-step process of destroying FiveThirtyEight.
As one who loved FiveThirtyEight from the moment a friend steered me to it in the Summer of 2008, I am sad to see it close down for good. If 538/FiveThirtyEight really is done, could this open the door for one Nate Silver to take back his brand? Given Disney ownership, probably not, but one can dream...
Probably would be smart if he could, but I kinda like the Silver Bulletin as a name. I’m a sucker for puns though.
I mean people know to Google that name so I feel like if he could he should
Take back? Disney won't go for that. Buy the name back? Maybe - I'd like to see Nate do that, as long as the price was reasonable. "Silver Bulletin" is becoming a brand of its own at this point, but that could be the branding of the 538 front-facing newsletter as well. I don't think that Nate should pay anything significant for it though.
Disney doesn't give anything away period,
and they have a market history of making people pay far too much.
They're much more likely to keep 538, wait to see if Silver Bulletin works out,
And they try to buy up SB with 538 as a bargaining chip if it works out.
In their mind, this means they wouldn't be funding the unprofitable 'reinvention' years.
The fact that these tactics alienate and weaken their brand is lost to them.
After that previous experience, there's 0% chance Disney is ever buying SB. Why would Nate ever agree to that?
Nate wouldn't, but in that particular corporate sphere there is the assumption that Nate is doing all of this just to build a new product to be sold to them when it reaches maturity.
These are the same types of executives that do not understand why Gabe Newell will likely never sell Valve, and trying to inquire too strongly could result in 'a really bad day' as Gabe takes proactive efforts to ensure the independence of his investments.
(For people who are confused by the second statement, look up 'Sierra Entertainment, Valve, and CUC International.' He nearly lost everything once to shareholder forced shenanigans that 'forced' the sale of Sierra to CUC International... before anyone realized it was all a ponzi scheme. He's got opinions about shareholders and what they do to companies.)
Agree, and agree that Silver Bulletin has a cachet of its own.
538 is one of those media outlets that definitely found me at a pivotal moment in my life and directed me towards thinking about politics in a more data-driven, analytical way. RIP. I hope that the diaspora continues to propagate 538's rigorous, more quantitative approach.
My favorite part of 538 (and the part that Disney dropped entirely after the 2023 layoffs) was the sports reporting and analysis. I'm glad to see you'll be doing more of that here in the future!
Pouring one out for FiveThirtyEight. I started with the politics podcast - Jody Avirgan, Harry Enten, Clare Malone, Nate Silver. The gold standard. Cheers!
Sad to see it go away ; it was a go to for me especially during election cycles.
The thing I will miss the most about 538 is the podcast and specifically the OG podcast with Galen, Clare and Nate. Think about bringing something similar back.
I sent an email message to FiveThirtyEight this morning, before Nate posted his comments, asking what happened to the polls. Thank you, Nate, for answering my question; I don't think I'll hear anything from them. Because they've gone kaput, I'm now subscribing to Silver Bulletin.
The writing was on the wall since the 2023 layoffs I think. You can't always choose, but if I had been working at FiveThirtyEight and survived then, I would have looked to go somewhere else ASAP.
To me, FiveThirtyEight was Nate, and it never made much sense for the site to go on after he left. I don't think he will want to resurrect the brand, but its spirit lives on, and I guess it will be easier now to get some former colleagues around, even if on a partial or guest role. Every time I opened a "model talk" post on the 2024 election, I heard Galen and Nate on my head: "This. Is. Model Talk!!!"
But, but, but, what happens to Fivey?
I quit going regularly to 538 when Nate left, but this news still makes my heart heavy. I’m glad he took the time to address it. Been needing a funeral for it for awhile, it’s been like Weekend at Bernie’s over there.
RIP 538, you will be missed.
Please don’t say “Trump approval ratings go up tomorrow” unless you are making a prediction. I think you meant they are being posted or published tomorrow, no?
Please bring back the 538 baseball ELO rankings and daily matchups. I loved those!
I miss the old Grantland and 538 days of ESPN. The company has gone in a completely different direction with a focus on over the top characters instead of quality journalism